近年中国全社会用电量与经济增速差距分析及展望

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202405136

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

2020—2023年，中国全社会用电增速持续高于经济增速，引起广泛社会关注。通过构建体现行业与居民生活统计差异的用电增速与经济增速差距解析模型，实现全面解析用电增速高于经济增速的动因。经测算发现，2020—2023年，用电增速持续高于经济增速，主要是受电气化、数字化、智能化等影响，第二产业用电增速高于其增加值增速；制造业中高耗能行业的影响最大，同时电气机械和器材制造业、计算机/通信和其他电子设备制造业等装备制造业的影响在增强；2022年气温的影响较为突出。综合研判，2030年前中国用电增速总体上仍将高于经济增速，即电力消费弹性系数仍将大于1。

关键词: 用电量, 经济, 增速, 差距分析

Abstract:

From 2020 to 2023, electricity consumption in China was higher than the economic growth, causing widespread concern and doubts in society. By building an analytical model for the gap between electricity consumption and economic growth that reflected the statistical difference between industries and residents' lives, the reasons why electricity consumption was higher than economic growth were analyzed comprehensively. It was found that from 2020 to 2023, electricity consumption continued to be higher than economic growth, mainly due to the impact of electrification, digitalization, and intelligence. In addition, electricity consumption in the secondary industry was higher than the growth rate of its added value. High energy consumption sectors in the manufacturing industry had the greatest impact, while the impact of equipment manufacturing, such as electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing, computer/communications, and other electronic equipment manufacturing, was intensifying. The influence of temperature in 2022 was more prominent. It was generally expected that China's electricity consumption would still be higher than economic growth before 2030, or in other words, the elasticity coefficient of electricity consumption would still be greater than 1.

Key words: electricity consumption, economy, growth rate, gap analysis

王向, 谭显东, 张成龙, 刘青, 张一凡. 近年中国全社会用电量与经济增速差距分析及展望[J]. 中国电力, 2024, 57(10): 199-207.

Xiang WANG, Xiandong TAN, Chenglong ZHANG, Qing LIU, Yifan ZHANG. Analysis and Prospect of Gap Between Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth in China in Recent Years[J]. Electric Power, 2024, 57(10): 199-207.

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链接本文: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202405136

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/Y2024/V57/I10/199

图/表 7

图 1 中国用电量增速与GDP增速差距变化

Fig.1 Change in gap between electricity consumption and GDP growth in China

图 2 全社会用电量增速与GDP增速差距解析计算流程

Fig.2 Analysis and calculation process of gap between electricity consumption and GDP growth in whole society

图 3 2020―2023年分部门用电量、增加值年均增速

Fig.3 Average annual growth rate of electricity consumption and added value in different sectors from 2020 to 2023

图 4 2020―2023年产业对用电与经济增速差距的贡献

Fig.4 Contribution of industry to gap between electricity consumption and economic growth from 2020 to 2023

图 5 2023年制造行业用电比重与其增加值比重比较

Fig.5 Comparison of proportion of electricity consumption and added value in manufacturing industry in 2023

图 6 2020—2023年制造行业用电增速与其增加值增速比较

Fig.6 Comparison of electricity consumption and growth rate of added value in manufacturing industry from 2020 to 2023

图 7 2020—2023年制造行业对用电量与经济增速差距的影响

Fig.7 Impact of manufacturing industry on gap between electricity consumption and economic growth from 2020 to 2023

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