覆冰架空导线舞动跳闸概率计算新方法

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202009114

中国电力 ›› 2022, Vol. 55 ›› Issue (3): 125-132.DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202009114

覆冰架空导线舞动跳闸概率计算新方法

刘辉¹, 马增泰², 林济铿², 田宏强¹, 严波¹, 左晨亮³

1. 国网安徽省电力有限公司，安徽合肥 230022;
2. 同济大学电子与信息工程学院，上海 200092;
3. 安徽继远软件公司，安徽合肥 230031

收稿日期:2020-09-27 修回日期:2021-05-22 出版日期:2022-03-28 发布日期:2022-03-29
作者简介:刘辉(1978—)，男，高级工程师，从事电力系统调度运行控制技术研究，E-mail：relayliu@163.com;马增泰(1995—)，男，通信作者，硕士研究生，从事极端天气下电网运行风险预警研究，E-mail：809684752@qq.com;林济铿(1967—)，男，博士，教授，从事智能电网、配网自动化、电力系统稳定性分析及控制等研究，E-mail：mejklin@126.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51177107)；国网安徽省电力有限公司科技项目(52120018004Q)

A New Method for Calculation of Transmission Line Tripping Probability Caused by Galloping of Iced Overhead Conductor

LIU Hui¹, MA Zengtai², LIN Jikeng², TIAN Hongqiang¹, YAN Bo¹, ZUO Chenliang³

1. State Grid Anhui Electric Power Co., Ltd., Hefei 230022, China;
2. College of Electronics and Information Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China;
3. Anhui Jiyuan Software Company, Hefei 230031, China

Received:2020-09-27 Revised:2021-05-22 Online:2022-03-28 Published:2022-03-29
Supported by:
This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51177107) and Science & Technology Project of State Grid Anhui Electric Power Co., Ltd. (No.52120018004Q)

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 覆冰导线的舞动严重威胁着电力系统安全稳定运行，如何准确地计算覆冰导线舞动导致的输电线路跳闸的概率成为备受关注的研究课题之一。提出了基于舞动运动方程、气象信息及故障信息相结合的覆冰导线舞动的跳闸概率计算新方法。首先由风速与冻雨量的历史样本获得风速与冻雨量的概率分布函数，然后根据牛顿定律建立了覆冰导线的单自由度舞动模型；进而，采用里茨-伽辽金方法求解舞动模型，获得了以风速和覆冰厚度为自变量的舞动幅值解析表达式；基于已获得的风速与冻雨量的概率分布函数，获得与二者为函数关系的覆冰厚度的概率分布函数，进而获得舞动幅值的概率分布函数；最后，根据覆冰舞动跳闸的历史故障记录所获得的泊松分布求得覆冰导线舞动幅值越限及短路故障的联合概率，结合贝叶斯公式获得舞动幅值越限条件下的覆冰导线舞动跳闸概率。算例证明了该方法的正确性及有效性。

关键词: 覆冰导线, 跳闸概率, 单自由度舞动模型, 风速, 冻雨量, 覆冰厚度

Abstract: The galloping of iced conductors seriously threatens the safety and stability of power systems, so it has become a focus for research to accurately calculate the transmission line tripping probability caused by the galloping of iced conductors. A new tripping probability calculation method is proposed based on the galloping equation, meterological information and fault information. Firstly, the probability distribution functions of wind speed and frozen rainfall are obtained using their respective historical samples; next, a single-degree-of-freedom galloping model of iced conductors is built according to the Newton law; and then, the Ritz-galerkin method is utilized to solve the galloping model to acquire the analytical expression of the galloping amplitude with the wind speed and icing thickness as independent variables; furthermore, the probability distribution function of icing thickness, which is the function of wind speed and frozen rainfall, is calculated using the probability distribution functions of wind speed and frozen rainfall, and then the probability distribution function of galloping amplitude is also calculated; finally, according to the Poisson distribution obtained by the historical fault records of galloping-caused tripping, the joint probability for the over-limit of galloping amplitude and the short-circuit fault is obtained, and the galloping-caused tripping probability of iced conductors is calculated using the Bayesian formula under the condition of over-limit of galloping amplitude. Case study has proved the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Key words: iced conductor, tripping probability, single-degree-of-freedom galloping model, wind speed, frozen rainfall, icing thickness

刘辉, 马增泰, 林济铿, 田宏强, 严波, 左晨亮. 覆冰架空导线舞动跳闸概率计算新方法[J]. 中国电力, 2022, 55(3): 125-132.

LIU Hui, MA Zengtai, LIN Jikeng, TIAN Hongqiang, YAN Bo, ZUO Chenliang. A New Method for Calculation of Transmission Line Tripping Probability Caused by Galloping of Iced Overhead Conductor[J]. Electric Power, 2022, 55(3): 125-132.

导出引用管理器 EndNote|Ris|BibTeX

链接本文: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202009114

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/Y2022/V55/I3/125

参考文献

[1] 王勇, 苗虹, 莫思特, 等. 高压架空输电线路防冰、融冰、除冰技术研究综述[J]. 电力系统保护与控制, 2020, 48(18): 178–187
WANG Yong, MIAO Hong, MO Site, et al. Summary of research on anti-ice, ice melting and de-icing of high voltage overhead transmission lines[J]. Power System Protection and Control, 2020, 48(18): 178–187
[2] 念路鹏, 阳林, 郝艳捧, 等. 均匀覆冰时重冰区110 kV直线塔关键构件的受力分析[J]. 智慧电力, 2020, 48(1): 15–22
NIAN Lupeng, YANG Lin, HAO Yanpeng, et al. Forces analysis on key components of 110 kV tangent tower with uniform icing in heavy icing area[J]. Smart Power, 2020, 48(1): 15–22
[3] 郭应龙. 李国兴, 尤传永. 输电线路舞动[M]. 北京: 电力工业出版社, 2002: 1-15.
[4] 闵光云, 刘小会, 孙测世, 等. 架空输电线舞动方程建模及主共振分析[J]. 中国电力, 2021, 54(3): 125–131
MIN Guangyun, LIU Xiaohui, SUN Ceshi, et al. Galloping equation and primary resonance investigation of overhead transmission lines[J]. Electric Power, 2021, 54(3): 125–131
[5] 周坤涛, 郝淑英, 刘君, 等. 覆冰输电线结构及载荷对舞动的影响[J]. 振动与冲击, 2012, 31(1): 116–120
ZHOU Kuntao, HAO Shuying, LIU Jun, et al. Influence of conductor structure and loads on galloping of a transmission line[J]. Journal of Vibration and Shock, 2012, 31(1): 116–120
[6] DENHARTOG J P. Transmission line vibration due to sleet[J]. Electrical Engineering, 1932, 51(6): 413.
[7] NIGOL O, BUCHAN P G. Conductor galloping-part II torsional mechanism[J]. IEEE Transactions on Power Apparatus and Systems, 1981, PAS-100(2): 708–720.
[8] YU P, SHAH A H, POPPLEWELL N. Inertially coupled galloping of iced conductors[J]. Journal of Applied Mechanics, 1992, 59(1): 140–145.
[9] 莫海枢. 覆冰导线舞动分析的增量谐波平衡法应用研究[D]. 武汉: 华中科技大学, 2013.
MO Haishu. Incremental harmonic balance method for galloping of iced conductor[D]. Wuhan: Huazhong University of Science and Technology, 2013.
[10] 姜雄. 覆冰输电导线舞动特性矩阵摄动法研究[D]. 杭州: 浙江大学, 2016.
JIANG Xiong. Application of matrix perturbation method on galloping characteristic analysis of iced bundle conductor[D]. Hangzhou: Zhejiang University, 2016.
[11] 刘亚坤, 李林锐, 李世龙, 等. 架空输电线路的舞动幅值分析与试验研究[J]. 上海交通大学学报, 2016, 50(6): 825–830
LIU Yakun, LI Linrui, LI Shilong, et al. Analysis and experiment on galloping amplitude of transmission lines[J]. Journal of Shanghai Jiao Tong University, 2016, 50(6): 825–830
[12] 孙珍茂, 楼文娟. 覆冰输电导线舞动非线性有限元分析[J]. 电网技术, 2010, 34(12): 214–218
SUN Zhenmao, LOU Wenjuan. Nonlinear finite element analysis on galloping of ice-coated transmission line[J]. Power System Technology, 2010, 34(12): 214–218
[13] DESAI Y M, YU P, POPPLEWELL N, et al. Finite element modelling of transmission line galloping[J]. Computers & Structures, 1995, 57(3): 407–420.
[14] 张海峰. 输电线路舞动有限元分析[D]. 重庆: 重庆大学, 2010.
ZHANG Haifeng. Finite element analysis of transmission line galloping[D]. Chongqing: Chongqing University, 2010.
[15] 刘小会, 严波, 张宏雁, 等. 覆冰导线舞动非线性数值模拟方法[J]. 应用数学和力学, 2009, 30(4): 457–468
LIU Xiaohui, YAN Bo, ZHANG Hongyan, et al. Nonlinear numerical simulation method for galloping of iced conductor[J]. Applied Mathematics and Mechanics, 2009, 30(4): 457–468
[16] 王建. 输电线路气象灾害风险分析与预警方法研究[D]. 重庆: 重庆大学, 2016.
WANG Jian. Research on meteorological disaster risk analysis and fault early warning methods for overhead transmission lines[D]. Chongqing: Chongqing University, 2016.
[17] 阳林, 郝艳捧, 李立浧. 一种架空输电线路舞动预警方法: CN102095449A[P]. 2011-06-15.
YANG Lin, HAO Yanpeng, LI Lizheng. Method for alarming dancing of overhead transmission circuit: CN102095449A[P]. 2011-06-15.
[18] 国网湖南省电力公司, 国网湖南省电力公司防灾减灾中心, 湖南省湘电试研技术有限公司, 等. 一种电网线路舞动发生预测方法和系统: CN201710640834.2[P]. 2017-12-05.
[19] 安康, 林莘, 徐建源, 等. 一种架空输电线路舞动的监测方法: CN107044884A[P]. 2017-08-15.
AN Kang, LIN Shen, XU Jianyuan, et al. Monitoring method for overhead transmission line galloping: CN107044884A[P]. 2017-08-15.
[20] 周纪抑, 朱因远. 非线性振动[M]. 西安: 西安交通大学出版社, 1998: 1−15.
[21] 徐文军. 冰风暴灾害下输电线路故障概率预测及应急对策研究[D]. 长沙: 长沙理工大学, 2011.
XU Wenjun. Forecasting for failure probability and research on emergency strategy of transmission lines in ice strom[D]. Changsha: Changsha University of Science & Technology, 2011.
[22] 王乐, 杨帅, 朱时阳, 等. 基于泊松分布的输电线路跳闸概率预测方法[J]. 高电压技术, 2017, 43(11): 3777–3783
WANG Le, YANG Shuai, ZHU Shiyang, et al. Prediction method of transmission line trip probability based on Poisson distribution[J]. High Voltage Engineering, 2017, 43(11): 3777–3783
[23] 王津宇, 李哲, 刘善峰, 等. 基于风险系数的输电线路覆冰舞动预警方法[J]. 高压电器, 2019, 55(9): 194–199
WANG Jinyu, LI Zhe, LIU Shanfeng, et al. Early warning method of iced transmission line galloping based on risk coefficient[J]. High Voltage Apparatus, 2019, 55(9): 194–199
[24] 孙求国, 聂一雄, 王星华. 输电线路舞动在线监测预警判据的研究[J]. 电力科学与技术学报, 2012, 27(2): 52–56
SUN Qiuguo, NIE Yixiong, WANG Xinghua. Research on the warning criterions of transmission line galloping on-line monitoring system[J]. Journal of Electric Power Science and Technology, 2012, 27(2): 52–56
[25] 夏令志, 程洋, 严波, 等. 2018年1月安徽电网输电线路覆冰舞动故障规律分析[J]. 安徽电气工程职业技术学院学报, 2019, 24(1): 73–77
XIA Lingzhi, CHENG Yang, YAN Bo, et al. Analysis of faults of icing and galloping of transmission lines in Anhui power grid in January of 2018[J]. Journal of Anhui Electrical Engineering Professional Technique College, 2019, 24(1): 73–77

覆冰架空导线舞动跳闸概率计算新方法

A New Method for Calculation of Transmission Line Tripping Probability Caused by Galloping of Iced Overhead Conductor

RichHTML

PDF (PC)

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

参考文献

相关文章 15

编辑推荐

Metrics

[1]	陈子含, 滕伟, 胥学峰, 丁显, 柳亦兵. 基于图卷积网络和风速差分拟合的中长期风功率预测[J]. 中国电力, 2023, 56(10): 96-105.
[2]	陈郑淦哲, 张斌, 范亚洲, 武云发. 基于高程风速预测的架空导线温度计算方法[J]. 中国电力, 2022, 55(6): 137-145.
[3]	方春华, 陶玉宁, 张威, 智李, 李景. 实测风速分析模拟及微地形下杆塔风速修正方法[J]. 中国电力, 2022, 55(6): 146-153.
[4]	刘辉, 杨韬, 林济铿, 王京景, 严波, 刘潇. 山火条件下输电线路跳闸概率计算[J]. 中国电力, 2022, 55(3): 133-141.
[5]	刘辉, 马增泰, 林济铿. 覆冰导线舞动方程的建立及求解策略[J]. 中国电力, 2021, 54(7): 67-75.
[6]	吴晓升, 江岳文. 基于去趋势互相关分析法的光照、温度和风速互相关性分析[J]. 中国电力, 2020, 53(6): 97-106,123.
[7]	贾思棋, 李军辉, 杜冬梅, 刘彬, 何青. 基于随机Hough变换的线路覆冰厚度图像识别技术[J]. 中国电力, 2019, 52(12): 39-45,53.
[8]	谷新波, 李兴华, 王佳, 徐丽娜. 基于对比分析法的内蒙古某风场风资源后评估[J]. 中国电力, 2016, 49(9): 165-169.
[9]	闵绚，牛华伟，文志科，付晶，曾云飞. 分裂导线体型系数试验研究[J]. 中国电力, 2016, 49(5): 171-177.
[10]	饶日晟，叶林，任成，宋旭日，郎燕生，靳晶新. 基于实际运行数据的风电场功率曲线优化方法[J]. 中国电力, 2016, 49(3): 148-153.
[11]	闵绚，文志科，曾云飞，付晶. 脉动风作用下特高压绝缘子串的风偏特性[J]. 中国电力, 2016, 49(3): 65-71.
[12]	王丽，张义江，郭民臣，纪执琴. 积灰及迎面风速对直接空冷机组性能的影响[J]. 中国电力, 2015, 48(2): 21-26.
[13]	王峰, 周挺, 王成, 黄福勇, 曾鹏. 湖南电网风区分布图的绘制与应用[J]. 中国电力, 2015, 48(12): 33-38.
[14]	张娜，王守相，王亚旻. 基于掩模经验模态分解的风速组合预测模型[J]. 中国电力, 2014, 47(5): 129-135.
[15]	奉斌，丁毛毛，卓伟光，牛焕娜，杨仁刚. 微电网风/光发电功率预测软件的设计与开发[J]. 中国电力, 2014, 47(5): 123-128.

模态框（Modal）标题

覆冰架空导线舞动跳闸概率计算新方法

A New Method for Calculation of Transmission Line Tripping Probability Caused by Galloping of Iced Overhead Conductor

RichHTML

PDF (PC)

可视化

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

参考文献

相关文章 15

编辑推荐

Metrics