微电网风/光发电功率预测软件的设计与开发

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.2014.5.123.5

中国电力 ›› 2014, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (5): 123-128.DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.2014.5.123.5

微电网风/光发电功率预测软件的设计与开发

奉斌¹，丁毛毛²，卓伟光¹，牛焕娜²，杨仁刚²

1. 广西电网公司，广西南宁 530023;
2. 中国农业大学信息与电气工程学院，北京 100083

收稿日期:2014-01-08 出版日期:2014-05-31 发布日期:2015-12-21
作者简介:奉斌（1971-），男，广西贺州人，高级工程师，从事智能电网技术研究。E-mail: fbdraco@vip.qq.com
基金资助:
国家高技术研究发展计划（863计划）资助项目（2012AA050217）

Design and Development of Power Prediction Software of Wind / Photovoltaic in a Micro-Grid

FENG Bin¹, DING Mao-mao², ZHUO Wei-guang¹, NIU Huan-na¹, YANG Ren-gang²

1. Electric Power Company of Guangxi, Nanning 530023, China;
2. College of Information and Electrical Engineering, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100083, China

Received:2014-01-08 Online:2014-05-31 Published:2015-12-21
Supported by:
This work is supported by National High Technology Research and Development Program of China (863 Program) (2012AA050217)

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 风力发电和光伏发电功率的预测是进行微电网能量调度计划制定的前提。运用基于时间序列法的风/光发电功率预测模型，引用等效平均风速概念，以提高风功率预测的准确度;采取在线滚动建模的方式修正基于时间序列法的预测模型，最后运用天气预报信息修正风/光发电功率预测的误差。设计了风/光发电功率预测软件的功能组成结构，制定了包括超短期、扩展短期与短期预测模块的程序流程，应用实例验证了所开发软件的实用性与有效性。

关键词: 时间序列, 等效平均风速, 风/光发电功率预测

Abstract: Micro-grid’s scheduling plan is usually based on the predictable results of the power output of wind turbine generation and photovoltaic generation. This paper used time series model for wind/photovoltaic power prediction, took the concept of equivalent average wind speed to improve the accuracy of wind power prediction, and adopted the way of establishing the model online to correct the model constantly. Finally, the software of weather forecasts was used to correct error to improve the accuracy of the predictable results. The software’s functional composition was also designed. Flowchart of the procedure was also established, which contains ultra-short-term, extension-short-term and short-term predictions. Finally, an example was taken to verify the practicality and effectiveness of the software.

Key words: time series, equivalent average wind speed, power prediction of wind/photovoltaic generation

中图分类号:

TM77

奉斌，丁毛毛，卓伟光，牛焕娜，杨仁刚. 微电网风/光发电功率预测软件的设计与开发[J]. 中国电力, 2014, 47(5): 123-128.

FENG Bin, DING Mao-mao, ZHUO Wei-guang, NIU Huan-na, YANG Ren-gang. Design and Development of Power Prediction Software of Wind / Photovoltaic in a Micro-Grid[J]. Electric Power, 2014, 47(5): 123-128.

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微电网风/光发电功率预测软件的设计与开发

Design and Development of Power Prediction Software of Wind / Photovoltaic in a Micro-Grid

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微电网风/光发电功率预测软件的设计与开发

Design and Development of Power Prediction Software of Wind / Photovoltaic in a Micro-Grid

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