微地形环境下输电线路微气象分析与预测技术

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.201907161

中国电力 ›› 2020, Vol. 53 ›› Issue (3): 76-83.DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.201907161

微地形环境下输电线路微气象分析与预测技术

李隆基¹, 郗晓光¹, 李志坚¹, 王晓光¹, 文清丰¹, 李琪冉², 周恺³, 刘勇², 姚俊韬⁴

1. 国网天津市电力公司电力科学研究院, 天津 300384;
2. 天津大学电气自动化与信息工程学院, 天津 300072;
3. 国网北京电力科学研究院, 北京 100075;
4. 厦门大学航空航天学院, 福建厦门 361102

收稿日期:2019-07-20 修回日期:2019-09-20 发布日期:2020-03-10
通讯作者: 李琪冉(1993-),男,通信作者,硕士研究生,从事外绝缘结构优化评估方面的研究,E-mail:qrli@tju.edu.cn
作者简介:李隆基(1986-),男,高级工程师,从事高电压输电技术、外绝缘技术、状态检修与故障诊断技术、新能源发电及数控技术研究,E-mail:mylongji@tsinghua.org.cn;刘勇(1980-),男,博士,副教授,博士生导师,从事输变电设备状态检测与试验方面的研究,E-mail:tjuliuyong@tju.edu.cn
基金资助:
国网天津市电力公司科技项目（沿海重污区输电线路覆湿雪闪络预测技术研究，KJ19-1-07）；国家电网公司科技项目（微地形、微气象电网覆冰数值预测技术研究，52020118000U）；国家自然科学基金资助项目（外绝缘表面液滴吸附生长模型及诱发沿面放电闪络机理研究，51677128）

Analysis and Prediction of Micro-meteorological Parameters for Power Transmission Lines in Micro-terrain Environment

LI Longji¹, XI Xiaoguang¹, LI Zhijian¹, WANG Xiaoguang¹, WEN Qingfeng¹, LI Qiran², ZHOU Kai³, LIU Yong², YAO Juntao⁴

1. State Grid Tianjin Electric Power Research Institute, Tianjin 300384, China;
2. School of Electrical and Information Engineering, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China;
3. State Grid Beijing Electric Power Research Institute, Beijing 100075, China;
4. Aerospace College, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361102, China

Received:2019-07-20 Revised:2019-09-20 Published:2020-03-10
Supported by:
This work is supported by Science and Technology Project of State Grid Tianjin Electric Power Company (Wet Snow Flashover Prediction of Power Transmission Lines in Coastal Heavy Contamination area, No. KJ19-1-07), Science and Technology Project of SGCC (Research on Numerical Icing Prediction Technology of Power Grid in Micro-lopogrephical and Micro-meteorological Condition, No. 52020118000U) and National Natural Science Foundation of China (Adsorption and Growth Modeling of Water Droplets and the Propagating Mechanism of Induced Surface Discharge on Outdoor Insulator, No.51677128)

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为了研究微地形区域输电线路运行的气象情况，在小气候理论基础上，以华北地区处于典型微地形区域的3条输电线路、且历史上发生过由极端天气引发的输电线路事故为例，分析了山区微地形导致的微气象形成机理，并利用多元回归分析方法建立了微地形气象因子与宏观大气参数之间的回归预测模型。研究结果表明，该方法可以从定量角度揭示微气象参数之间的关系，能够对微地形区域输电线路运行的微气象参数情况进行分析与预测，为建立输电线路电气可靠性实时评估与预警系统奠定基础。

关键词: 微地形, 输电线路, 微气象参数, 多元回归分析, 气象分析与预测

Abstract: In order to investigate the weather conditions of the transmission lines in micro-terrain areas, a research is carried out on the formation mechanism of micro meteorology in mountainous micro-terrain environment by taking three transmission lines in North China Grid, which are located in typical micro-terrain areas and had tower failure accidents in history, as examples, and a regression prediction model is established between micro-terrain meteorological factors and macro atmosphere parameters with the multiple regression analysis method based on the micro-climate theory. The research results show that the method can quantitatively reveal the relationship between micro-meteorological parameters, and can be used to analyze and predict the micro-meteorological parameters for the transmission lines in micro-terrain environment. The research in this paper can provide a basis for real-time evaluation of electrical reliability of transmission lines and establishment of early warning system.

Key words: micro-terrain, power transmission lines, micro-meteorological parameters, multiple regression analysis, meteorological analysis and prediction

李隆基, 郗晓光, 李志坚, 王晓光, 文清丰, 李琪冉, 周恺, 刘勇, 姚俊韬. 微地形环境下输电线路微气象分析与预测技术[J]. 中国电力, 2020, 53(3): 76-83.

LI Longji, XI Xiaoguang, LI Zhijian, WANG Xiaoguang, WEN Qingfeng, LI Qiran, ZHOU Kai, LIU Yong, YAO Juntao. Analysis and Prediction of Micro-meteorological Parameters for Power Transmission Lines in Micro-terrain Environment[J]. Electric Power, 2020, 53(3): 76-83.

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https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/Y2020/V53/I3/76

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微地形环境下输电线路微气象分析与预测技术

Analysis and Prediction of Micro-meteorological Parameters for Power Transmission Lines in Micro-terrain Environment

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Analysis and Prediction of Micro-meteorological Parameters for Power Transmission Lines in Micro-terrain Environment

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