关键词: 经济发展, 电力需求, 电力规划

Abstract: China’s economy is in a stage of “New Norm”, under which the economic growth rate, industrial structure and driving forces for development are now experiencing fundamental changes. It is of great strategic importance to analyze the economic development trends and new features of power industry under the “New Norm”. Considering the structural reform of supply-side and the factor of demand-side, the overall economic growth of China will be characterized by a“L” type downward slope in the period of 13th Five-Year Plan (2016-2020) and 2021-2030. The electricity consumption growth will slow further. It is expected that the total electricity consumption of the whole society will reach 7-7.6 trillion kW·h and 9.1-11 trillion kW·h in 2020 and 2030, respectively. In terms of structure, the electricity consumption of third industry and residents will become the main driving force for electricity consumption growth of the whole society. In terms of regions, the proportion of electricity consumption in the western region will increase, but the eastern region will still be the country’s load center in the future.

Key words: economic development, electricity demand, power planning