计及灵活性基于时序的“十四五”储能需求分析

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202007255

中国电力 ›› 2021, Vol. 54 ›› Issue (8): 190-198.DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202007255

计及灵活性基于时序的“十四五”储能需求分析

任大伟^1,2, 金晨^1,2, 肖晋宇^1,2, 侯金鸣^1,2, 杜尔顺³, 周原冰^1,2

1. 全球能源互联网发展合作组织，北京 100031;
2. 全球能源互联网集团有限公司，北京 100031;
3. 清华大学低碳能源实验室，北京 100084

收稿日期:2020-07-28 修回日期:2021-03-20 发布日期:2021-08-05
作者简介:任大伟(1983-),男,通信作者,硕士,从事电力系统分析、规划和控制、电力系统储能研究,E-mail:dawei-ren@geidco.org;金晨(1990-),男,博士,从事电力系统规划、电力系统储能研究,E-mail:chen-jin@geidco.org
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金青年基金资助项目(51907100)；全球能源互联网集团有限公司科技项目(2700/2020-75001)

Demand Analysis of Energy Storage for the 14th Five-Year Plan Period Based on Time Series Considering Power System Flexibility

REN Dawei^1,2, JIN Chen^1,2, XIAO Jinyun^1,2, HOU Jinming^1,2, DU Ershun³, ZHOU Yuanbing^1,2

1. Global Energy Interconnection Development and Cooperation Organization, Beijing 100031, China;
2. Global Energy Interconnection Group Co., Ltd., Beijing 100031, China;
3. Laboratory of Low Carbon Energy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China

Received:2020-07-28 Revised:2021-03-20 Published:2021-08-05
Supported by:
This work is supported by Youth of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.51907100), Science and Technology Project of Global Energy Interconnection Group Co., Ltd.(No.2700/2020-75001)

摘要/Abstract

摘要： “十四五”期间，随着风电、光伏装机规模增加，系统净负荷波动增强，对储能等灵活性资源的需求不断增强。同时，储能技术不断发展成熟，成本不断下降，逐步应用于电力系统的各个环节，因此有必要建立计及系统灵活性需求的储能优化规划模型，以更加科学的方法评估中国未来五年储能的发展需求。首先给出了计及电力系统灵活性基于时序曲线的运行模拟模型方法和储能需求分析流程，以系统总成本最低为优化目标，考虑了投资决策约束和运行约束，可统筹优化系统目标水平年的储能结构及容量。其次，基于以上模型方法，优化计算了2025年中国七大区域电网协议送电模式下的储能容量，并分析了配置储能的原因，开展了灵活调节模式下的储能容量对比分析。最后，基于以上分析，总结了“十四五”期间，中国电力系统储能容量、新能源发电量、弃风和弃光率及综合用电成本等结论，为储能未来五年的规划提供技术支撑。

关键词: “十四五”电力规划, 储能优化规划模型, 储能需求评估, 储能配置分析

Abstract: During the "14th Five-Year” period, the rapid growth of installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic systems will intensify the fluctuation of the system net load. It is inevitable that the demand for flexible resources such as energy storage will continue to rise. Meanwhile, as the energy storage technology is becoming more mature and the cost continues to fall, it tends to be gradually applied to every aspects of the power system. Therefore, it is necessary to establish an energy storage optimization planning model which takes into account the demands of system flexibility to evaluate the demands of China's energy storage in the next five years more scientifically. This article first proposes the operation simulation model method and energy storage demand analysis process based on the time sequence curve considering the flexibility of the power system. Specifically, by taking the minimization of total system cost as the optimization objective subject to the investment decision constraints and operation constraints, the structure and capacity of energy storage for the target-level year are coordinated and optimized. Secondly, based on the proposed model and methods, the optimal energy storage capacities under the protocol power transmission mode for China's seven regional power grids in 2025 are calculated respectively. The configuration of energy storage are analyzed and comparative analysis of energy storage capacity under the flexible adjustment mode is also carried out. Finally, based on the above analysis, we summarized the conclusions regarding China’s power system energy storage capacity, new energy generation capacity, wind curtailment and solar curtailment rate, and comprehensive electricity cost during the “14th Five-Year” period, which will provide technical support for the planning of energy storage in the next five years.

Key words: “14th Five-Year” power plan, energy storage optimization planning model, energy storage demand assessment, energy storage configuration analysis

任大伟, 金晨, 肖晋宇, 侯金鸣, 杜尔顺, 周原冰. 计及灵活性基于时序的“十四五”储能需求分析[J]. 中国电力, 2021, 54(8): 190-198.

REN Dawei, JIN Chen, XIAO Jinyun, HOU Jinming, DU Ershun, ZHOU Yuanbing. Demand Analysis of Energy Storage for the 14th Five-Year Plan Period Based on Time Series Considering Power System Flexibility[J]. Electric Power, 2021, 54(8): 190-198.

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计及灵活性基于时序的“十四五”储能需求分析

Demand Analysis of Energy Storage for the 14th Five-Year Plan Period Based on Time Series Considering Power System Flexibility

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