Interactions Between Global Energy Transition and Geopolitical Environment

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202509037

Abstract

Abstract:

Global energy transition has become a core issue in the sustainable development strategies of countries worldwide. Focusing on the interactions between global energy transition and the geopolitical, economic, and social dimensions, this study constructs a multidimensional indicator system for global energy transition and the geopolitical environment based on data from 146 countries over the period 2008—2021. It systematically evaluates the evolutionary paths and interaction characteristics of two systems—global energy transition and the global geopolitical environment—from two spatial scales (global and regional). The results show that the global energy transition level has maintained a steady upward trend overall, with significant progress in renewable energy development and energy efficiency, while per capita energy access capacity remains relatively insufficient. The geopolitical environment level has exhibited an overall downward trend since 2018, as the superimposed effects of political unrest, social inequality, and economic vulnerability have become increasingly prominent. At the global scale, the two systems show a significant positive correlation, reflecting a trend of coordinated evolution. At the regional scale, the interaction structure between energy transition and the geopolitical environment demonstrates obvious spatial heterogeneity. North America and South Asia are dominated by trade-off relationships, while Europe boasts the strongest synergistic effect.

Key words: energy transition, geopolitical environment, interaction, spatial scale

WANG Yaohua, LI Xiaochun, YANG Yu, MIAO Zhongquan, MAO Jikang, JIAN Yongfang. Interactions Between Global Energy Transition and Geopolitical Environment[J]. Electric Power, 2025, 58(12): 1-13.

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URL: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202509037

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/Y2025/V58/I12/1

Figures/Tables 16

Table 1 Indicator system for global energy transition

维度	指标	属性	综合权重	数据来源
电力可及性	获得清洁烹饪燃料和技术的人口占比	正	0.090	世界银行
	获得电力的人口占比	正	0.078	世界银行
	人均发电量	正	0.101	IEA
清洁低碳消费	低碳电力份额	正	0.159	Ember和Energy Institute
清洁低碳消费	可再生能源消耗占比	正	0.177	世界银行
能源效率	一次能源强度	负	0.107	世界银行
能源效率	电力碳强度	负	0.199	世界银行
可再生能源基础设施建设能力	人均可再生能源装机容量	正	0.068	IRENA
可再生能源基础设施建设能力	可再生能源总装机容量	正	0.021	IRENA

Table 2 Indicator system for global geopolitical environment

维度	指标	属性	综合权重	数据来源
政治环境	民主指数	正	0.093	Democracy Index
	和平指数	负	0.086	Global Peace Index
	清廉指数	正	0.102	Corruption Perceptions Index
	法治水平	正	0.098	The Worldwide Governance Indicators
	监管质量	正	0.100	The Worldwide Governance Indicators
社会环境	基尼系数	负	0.092	由夜间灯光计算得出
	总失业人数	负	0.057	世界银行
	医疗卫生支出占GDP比重	正	0.105	世界银行
	人类发展指数	正	0.082	Human Development Index
经济环境	年通胀率	负	0.017	世界银行
	对外贸易依存度	负	0.049	世界银行
	GDP增长率	正	0.120	世界银行

Fig.1 Temporal evolution trends of global energy transition indices

Fig.2 Temporal evolution trends of dimensional indices for energy transition

Fig.3 Temporal evolution trends of each indicator's scores for energy transition

Fig.4 Temporal evolution trends of energy transition indices for nine regions

Fig.5 Dimensional indices of energy transition for nine regions in 2021

Fig.6 Temporal evolution trends of indices for global geopolitical environment

Fig.7 Temporal evolution trends of dimensional indices for geopolitical environment

Fig.8 Temporal evolution trends of each dimensional indicator's scores for geopolitical environment

Fig.9 Temporal evolution trends of geopolitical environment indices for nine regions

Fig.10 Dimensional indices of geopolitical environment for nine regions in 2021

Fig.11 Analysis of the interaction between energy transition index and geopolitical environment index

Fig.12 Spearman correlation coefficients between energy transition and geopolitical environment across dimensions

Fig.13 Spearman correlation coefficients between energy transition indicators and geopolitical environment indicators

Fig.14 Spearman correlation coefficients of the energy transition index and the geopolitical-environment index in nine regions

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