Prediction Method and Prospect of Unit Consumption of Main High Energy Consuming Products Based on Technical Analysis

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202102003

Abstract

Abstract: High energy consuming industry is an important terminal energy consumption sector. Studying the change trend of unit consumption of main products in this industry is of great significance to grasp the trend of China's energy consumption. Considering the impact of energy-saving technology promotion and production capacity upgrading, a product unit consumption model based on technical analysis is established to predict the unit consumption of main products in high energy consuming industries during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. The results show that in 2025, the unit consumption of cement, steel, electrolytic aluminum, alumina, refined copper, synthetic ammonia, caustic soda and calcium carbide in the main products of high energy consuming industries will be 49, 239, 1609, 99, 36, 565, 327 and 385 kg standard coal / ton respectively, down 7.0%, 6.6%, 2.1%, 31.5%, 16.3%, 6.0%, 5.0% and 2.3% respectively compared with 2020, among which electrolytic aluminum has the highest unit consumption while alumina has the largest decline.

Key words: high energy consuming industry, terminal energy consumption, unit consumption of product, technical analysis, energy saving amount

LIU Qing, ZHANG Chenglong, XIONG Huawen, WENG Yuyan, ZHANG Hua, WANG Hong, TAN Qingkun, YAO Li. Prediction Method and Prospect of Unit Consumption of Main High Energy Consuming Products Based on Technical Analysis[J]. Electric Power, 2023, 56(1): 166-172.

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URL: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202102003

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/Y2023/V56/I1/166

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