Electric Power ›› 2026, Vol. 59 ›› Issue (6): 76-88.DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202601048
• Innovation and Key Technologies of Coupled Operating Mechanisms for a Unified National Electricity Market • Previous Articles Next Articles
ZHOU Yong1,2(
), SHA Xueli1(
), LIU Yanfeng2,3, LI Xiang1
Received:2026-01-19
Revised:2026-04-07
Online:2026-06-22
Published:2026-06-28
Supported by:ZHOU Yong, SHA Xueli, LIU Yanfeng, LI Xiang. Operation optimization of central heating system coupled with green power peak-shaving based on bounded rationality[J]. Electric Power, 2026, 59(6): 76-88.
| 特征 | 选项 | 人口数量/人 | 占比/% |
| 小区 | 集中供热小区 | 65 | 38.01 |
| 分散供热小区 | 57 | 33.34 | |
| 无供热小区 | 49 | 28.65 | |
| 年龄 | 18岁以下 | 1 | 0.60 |
| 18~30岁 | 15 | 8.80 | |
| 31~45岁 | 104 | 60.80 | |
| 46~60岁 | 31 | 18.10 | |
| 60岁以上 | 20 | 11.70 | |
| 性别 | 男 | 90 | 52.63 |
| 女 | 81 | 47.37 | |
| 职业 | 固定职业 | 38 | 22.20 |
| 个体商户 | 24 | 14.00 | |
| 学生 | 11 | 6.40 | |
| 务农 | 7 | 4.10 | |
| 务工 | 2 | 1.20 | |
| 无业 | 5 | 2.90 | |
| 其他 | 84 | 49.10 | |
| 家庭年收入 | 5万元以下 | 4 | 2.30 |
| 6万~16万元 | 98 | 57.30 | |
| 17万~27万元 | 46 | 26.90 | |
| 28万元以上 | 23 | 13.50 |
Table 1 Sociodemographic characteristics of the sample
| 特征 | 选项 | 人口数量/人 | 占比/% |
| 小区 | 集中供热小区 | 65 | 38.01 |
| 分散供热小区 | 57 | 33.34 | |
| 无供热小区 | 49 | 28.65 | |
| 年龄 | 18岁以下 | 1 | 0.60 |
| 18~30岁 | 15 | 8.80 | |
| 31~45岁 | 104 | 60.80 | |
| 46~60岁 | 31 | 18.10 | |
| 60岁以上 | 20 | 11.70 | |
| 性别 | 男 | 90 | 52.63 |
| 女 | 81 | 47.37 | |
| 职业 | 固定职业 | 38 | 22.20 |
| 个体商户 | 24 | 14.00 | |
| 学生 | 11 | 6.40 | |
| 务农 | 7 | 4.10 | |
| 务工 | 2 | 1.20 | |
| 无业 | 5 | 2.90 | |
| 其他 | 84 | 49.10 | |
| 家庭年收入 | 5万元以下 | 4 | 2.30 |
| 6万~16万元 | 98 | 57.30 | |
| 17万~27万元 | 46 | 26.90 | |
| 28万元以上 | 23 | 13.50 |
| 类型 | 参数 | ||
| 输入 参数 | 时序动态特征 | 温度特征 | 逐时室外温度特征 |
| 静态用户特征 | 基础特征 | 年龄 职业 | |
| 偏好特征 | 理想温度范围 费用接受阈值 供热方式偏好 | ||
| 中间 参数 | 变量特征 | 温度特征 | 温度波动特征、 理想供热温度 |
| 输出 参数 | 预测特征 | 用户用热特征 | |
Table 2 Key parameters of the LSTM model
| 类型 | 参数 | ||
| 输入 参数 | 时序动态特征 | 温度特征 | 逐时室外温度特征 |
| 静态用户特征 | 基础特征 | 年龄 职业 | |
| 偏好特征 | 理想温度范围 费用接受阈值 供热方式偏好 | ||
| 中间 参数 | 变量特征 | 温度特征 | 温度波动特征、 理想供热温度 |
| 输出 参数 | 预测特征 | 用户用热特征 | |
| 参数 | 数值 | ||||
| 传热系数 | 外墙 | 玻璃门 | 玻璃窗户 | 屋面 | 门 |
| 0.45 | 1.70 | 0.80 | 0.30 | 2.00 | |
| 室内基础温度/℃ | 15 | ||||
| 供热时间 | 0~24 | ||||
| 燃气锅炉效率 | 0.9 | ||||
| 天然气低位发热值/((kW·h)·m–3) | 9.8 | ||||
| 天然气单价 | 2.78 | ||||
| 热损失率 | 0.109 | ||||
Table 3 Key parameters of user building thermodynamics and heating system
| 参数 | 数值 | ||||
| 传热系数 | 外墙 | 玻璃门 | 玻璃窗户 | 屋面 | 门 |
| 0.45 | 1.70 | 0.80 | 0.30 | 2.00 | |
| 室内基础温度/℃ | 15 | ||||
| 供热时间 | 0~24 | ||||
| 燃气锅炉效率 | 0.9 | ||||
| 天然气低位发热值/((kW·h)·m–3) | 9.8 | ||||
| 天然气单价 | 2.78 | ||||
| 热损失率 | 0.109 | ||||
| 参数 | 数值 | |
| 分时电价/(元·(kW·h)–1) | 峰段 | 0.60~1.00 |
| 平段 | 0.30~0.50 | |
| 谷段 | 0.10~0.25 | |
| 供热单价 | 0.05~0.20 | |
| 供热保障系数 | 1.1 | |
| 峰谷电价放大系数 | 1.2 | |
| 峰谷电价放大系数 | 1.5 | |
| 峰谷电价的最大比值 | 2 | |
| 聚类时段划分 | 3 | |
| 用户参与率阈值 | 0.8 | |
Table 4 Price ranges and parameters
| 参数 | 数值 | |
| 分时电价/(元·(kW·h)–1) | 峰段 | 0.60~1.00 |
| 平段 | 0.30~0.50 | |
| 谷段 | 0.10~0.25 | |
| 供热单价 | 0.05~0.20 | |
| 供热保障系数 | 1.1 | |
| 峰谷电价放大系数 | 1.2 | |
| 峰谷电价放大系数 | 1.5 | |
| 峰谷电价的最大比值 | 2 | |
| 聚类时段划分 | 3 | |
| 用户参与率阈值 | 0.8 | |
| 参数 | 调度前后 | a类用户 | b类用户 | c类用户 | d类用户 | 所有用户 |
| 温度达 标率/% | 调度前 | 100.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.9 |
| 调度后 | 50.0 | 85.0 | 95.0 | 100.0 | 90.3 | |
| 参与 率/% | 调度前 | 100.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.9 |
| 调度后 | 45.0 | 80.0 | 95.0 | 100.0 | 88.0 |
Table 5 Comparison of user satisfaction before and after optimization
| 参数 | 调度前后 | a类用户 | b类用户 | c类用户 | d类用户 | 所有用户 |
| 温度达 标率/% | 调度前 | 100.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.9 |
| 调度后 | 50.0 | 85.0 | 95.0 | 100.0 | 90.3 | |
| 参与 率/% | 调度前 | 100.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.9 |
| 调度后 | 45.0 | 80.0 | 95.0 | 100.0 | 88.0 |
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