Nonparametric kernel density estimation based wind-solar-hydro-thermal-storage system operational flexibility evaluation

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202508057

Abstract

Abstract:

With the rising penetration of new energy, uncertainties on both generation and load sides pose significant risks to power system stability. To scientifically assess the flexibility of a novel multi-source coupled power system (integrating wind, solar, thermal, hydro and energy storage), a collaborative analysis framework is proposed, combining interval estimation of bilateral generation-load uncertainties with stochastic production simulation. First, non-parametric kernel density estimation generates confidence intervals for new energy output and load, and extreme supply-demand scenarios are constructed to quantify such uncertainties. Second, via a hierarchical dispatching strategy, wind, photovoltaic and run-of-river hydropower are prioritized as equivalent negative loads. Considering system ramping constraints, an improved stochastic production simulation algorithm schedules thermal power unit output. Finally, reservoir-type hydropower undertakes remaining system load. In case of load shedding or new energy curtailment, energy storage devices regulate the system through charging and discharging. Case studies show non-parametric estimation effectively characterizes bilateral generation-load uncertainties. The proportions of load shedding and new energy curtailment due to insufficient system ramping capacity are 14.8% and 91.5%, respectively, indicating ramping constraints are critical to system stability. Energy storage configuration significantly enhances regulation capacity, reducing the loss of load probability (LOLP) and new energy curtailment probability by 8.6% and 34.1%, respectively.

Key words: equivalent power function method, reservoir-type hydropower, nonparametric kernel density estimation, flexibility evaluation, new-type power system

MI Yi, XU Xuesong, YANG Yiming, ZOU Xin. Nonparametric kernel density estimation based wind-solar-hydro-thermal-storage system operational flexibility evaluation[J]. Electric Power, 2026, 59(4): 12-23.

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URL: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202508057

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/Y2026/V59/I4/12

Figures/Tables 14

References 35

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出力区间	向上爬坡率	向下爬坡率
$ \displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{N}{P}_{\text{Gmin}}(i) $	$ \displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{N}{r}_{\text{up}}\left(i\right) $	0
$ \left(\displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{N}{P}_{\text{Gmin}}\left(i\right)\right.,\left.\displaystyle\sum_{i=2}^{N}{P}_{\text{Gmin}}\left(i\right)+{P}_{\text{Gmax}}\left(1\right)\right] $	$ \displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{N}{r}_{\text{up}}\left(i\right) $	$ {r}_{\text{down}}\left(1\right) $
$ \vdots $	$ \vdots $	$ \vdots $
$ \left(\displaystyle\sum_{i=n}^{N}{P}_{\text{Gmin}}\left(i\right)+\displaystyle\sum_{i=n}^{N-1}{P}_{\text{Gmax}}\left(i\right),\right. $ $ \left.\displaystyle\sum_{i=n+1}^{N}{P}_{\text{Gmin}}\left(i\right)+\displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{n}{P}_{\text{Gmax}}\left(i\right)\right] $	$ \displaystyle\sum_{i=n}^{N}{r}_{\text{up}}\left(i\right) $	$ \displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{N}{r}_{\text{down}}\left(i\right) $
$ \vdots $	$ \vdots $	$ \vdots $
$ \left({P}_{\text{Gmin}}\left(N\right)+\displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{N-1}{P}_{\text{Gmax}}\left(i\right),\right. \left.\displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{N}{P}_{\text{Gmax}}\left(i\right)\right) $	$ {r}_{\text{up}}\left(N\right) $	$ \displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{N}{r}_{\text{down}}\left(i\right) $
$ \displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{N}{P}_{\text{Gmax}} $	0	$ \displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{N}{r}_{\text{down}}\left(i\right) $

出力区间	向上爬坡率	向下爬坡率
$ \displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{N}{P}_{\text{Gmin}}(i) $	$ \displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{N}{r}_{\text{up}}\left(i\right) $	0
$ \left(\displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{N}{P}_{\text{Gmin}}\left(i\right)\right.,\left.\displaystyle\sum_{i=2}^{N}{P}_{\text{Gmin}}\left(i\right)+{P}_{\text{Gmax}}\left(1\right)\right] $	$ \displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{N}{r}_{\text{up}}\left(i\right) $	$ {r}_{\text{down}}\left(1\right) $
$ \vdots $	$ \vdots $	$ \vdots $
$ \left(\displaystyle\sum_{i=n}^{N}{P}_{\text{Gmin}}\left(i\right)+\displaystyle\sum_{i=n}^{N-1}{P}_{\text{Gmax}}\left(i\right),\right. $ $ \left.\displaystyle\sum_{i=n+1}^{N}{P}_{\text{Gmin}}\left(i\right)+\displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{n}{P}_{\text{Gmax}}\left(i\right)\right] $	$ \displaystyle\sum_{i=n}^{N}{r}_{\text{up}}\left(i\right) $	$ \displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{N}{r}_{\text{down}}\left(i\right) $
$ \vdots $	$ \vdots $	$ \vdots $
$ \left({P}_{\text{Gmin}}\left(N\right)+\displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{N-1}{P}_{\text{Gmax}}\left(i\right),\right. \left.\displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{N}{P}_{\text{Gmax}}\left(i\right)\right) $	$ {r}_{\text{up}}\left(N\right) $	$ \displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{N}{r}_{\text{down}}\left(i\right) $
$ \displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{N}{P}_{\text{Gmax}} $	0	$ \displaystyle\sum_{i=1}^{N}{r}_{\text{down}}\left(i\right) $

类型	台数	额定功率/ 万kW	最小技术出力/万kW	故障率/ %	爬坡速率/ ((万kW)·h^–1)
1	10	100	55.0	0.49	28.6
2	10	90	49.5	0.49	25.7
3	10	48	26.0	0.63	26.0
4	10	30	10.0	0.86	15.0

类型	台数	额定功率/ 万kW	最小技术出力/万kW	故障率/ %	爬坡速率/ ((万kW)·h^–1)
1	10	100	55.0	0.49	28.6
2	10	90	49.5	0.49	25.7
3	10	48	26.0	0.63	26.0
4	10	30	10.0	0.86	15.0

置信度/%	风电	光伏	径流式水电	负荷
85	80.40	82.80	83.20	85.70
90	84.30	88.60	87.70	88.80
95	89.00	93.70	92.20	94.70