Electric Power ›› 2017, Vol. 50 ›› Issue (3): 168-173.DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.2017.03.168.06

• Technology and Economics • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Substation Engineering Cost Forecasting Method Based on Modified Firefly Algorithm and Support Vector Machine

SONG Zongyun1, NIU Dongxiao1, XIAO Xinli1, ZHU Lin2   

  1. 1. School of Economic and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China;
    2. State Grid Xin Yuan Holdings Technology Company Limited, Beijing 100161, China
  • Received:2016-12-05 Online:2017-03-20 Published:2017-03-17
  • Supported by:
    This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China Project(No.71471059); Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (No.2016XS75;No.2016XS73)

Abstract: The cost level of substation engineering is closely related to the integrated economy of power grid projects, and the cost level forecasting is a crucial tool for controlling cost and improving cost rationality. Based on the conventional firefly algorithm, the Gaussian Disturbance is introduced into the firefly algorithm to improve the update equation, which aims to improve the searching ability and optimize the SVM parameters. By operating the Schaffer testing function, it is discovered that the Gaussian disturbance firefly algorithm has better convergence rate and searching ability. The case study of substation engineering in Guangdong Province further proves that the proposed model has higher forecasting accuracy and effectiveness

Key words: firefly algorithm, support vector machine, Gaussian disturbance, substation engineering, cost forecasting

CLC Number: