全球能源转型与地缘环境的交互关系

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202509037

中国电力 ›› 2025, Vol. 58 ›› Issue (12): 1-13.DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202509037

• 专稿 •

全球能源转型与地缘环境的交互关系

王耀华¹(), 李晓纯²^,³(), 杨宇²^,³^,⁴(), 苗中泉¹, 毛吉康¹, 菅泳仿¹

1. 国网能源研究院有限公司，北京　102209
2. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟实验室，北京　100101
3. 中国科学院大学资源与环境学院，北京　100049
4. 北京师范大学地理科学学部，北京　100875

收稿日期:2025-09-18 修回日期:2025-11-28 发布日期:2025-12-27 出版日期:2025-12-28
作者简介:
王耀华（1973），男，高级工程师（教授级），从事能源电力战略规划研究，E-mail：wangyaohua@sgeri.sgcc.comc.cn
李晓纯（1998），女，博士研究生，从事地缘政治与能源转型耦合研究，E-mail：lixc.20s@igsnrr.ac.cn
杨宇（1984），男，教授，从事能源转型的地缘政治效应研究，E-mail： yangyu@igsnrr.ac.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助项目（42571208）；国家电网有限公司科技项目（5108-202218280A-2-432-XG）；国家自然科学基金资助项目（72348003）。

Interactions Between Global Energy Transition and Geopolitical Environment

WANG Yaohua¹(), LI Xiaochun²^,³(), YANG Yu²^,³^,⁴(), MIAO Zhongquan¹, MAO Jikang¹, JIAN Yongfang¹

1. State Grid Energy Research Institute Co., Ltd., Beijing 102209, China
2. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, and Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
3. College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
4. Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China

Received:2025-09-18 Revised:2025-11-28 Online:2025-12-27 Published:2025-12-28
Supported by:
This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.42571208), the Science and Technology Project of SGCC (No.5108-202218280A-2-432-XG), and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.72348003).

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

能源转型是各国可持续发展战略的核心议题，针对全球能源转型与地缘政治、经济、社会间的交互关系，基于2008—2021年146个国家的数据，构建能源转型与地缘环境的多维指标体系，分别从全球与区域两个空间尺度，系统评估全球能源转型和全球地缘环境两个系统的演化路径及互动特征。结果表明，全球能源转型水平整体稳步上升，可再生能源建设与能源效率进展显著，人均能源获取能力相对不足。地缘环境水平自2018年起整体趋于下行，政治动荡、社会不均与经济脆弱性的多重叠加效应凸显。全球尺度上，两个系统之间呈显著正相关，体现出协同演化趋势；区域尺度上，能源转型与地缘环境的交互关系表现出明显的空间异质性，北美与南亚以权衡关系为主，欧洲的协同效应最强。

关键词: 能源转型, 地缘环境, 交互关系, 空间尺度

Abstract:

Global energy transition has become a core issue in the sustainable development strategies of countries worldwide. Focusing on the interactions between global energy transition and the geopolitical, economic, and social dimensions, this study constructs a multidimensional indicator system for global energy transition and the geopolitical environment based on data from 146 countries over the period 2008—2021. It systematically evaluates the evolutionary paths and interaction characteristics of two systems—global energy transition and the global geopolitical environment—from two spatial scales (global and regional). The results show that the global energy transition level has maintained a steady upward trend overall, with significant progress in renewable energy development and energy efficiency, while per capita energy access capacity remains relatively insufficient. The geopolitical environment level has exhibited an overall downward trend since 2018, as the superimposed effects of political unrest, social inequality, and economic vulnerability have become increasingly prominent. At the global scale, the two systems show a significant positive correlation, reflecting a trend of coordinated evolution. At the regional scale, the interaction structure between energy transition and the geopolitical environment demonstrates obvious spatial heterogeneity. North America and South Asia are dominated by trade-off relationships, while Europe boasts the strongest synergistic effect.

Key words: energy transition, geopolitical environment, interaction, spatial scale

王耀华, 李晓纯, 杨宇, 苗中泉, 毛吉康, 菅泳仿. 全球能源转型与地缘环境的交互关系[J]. 中国电力, 2025, 58(12): 1-13.

WANG Yaohua, LI Xiaochun, YANG Yu, MIAO Zhongquan, MAO Jikang, JIAN Yongfang. Interactions Between Global Energy Transition and Geopolitical Environment[J]. Electric Power, 2025, 58(12): 1-13.

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链接本文: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202509037

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/Y2025/V58/I12/1

图/表 16

表 1 全球能源转型指标体系构建

Table 1 Indicator system for global energy transition

维度	指标	属性	综合权重	数据来源
电力可及性	获得清洁烹饪燃料和技术的人口占比	正	0.090	世界银行
	获得电力的人口占比	正	0.078	世界银行
	人均发电量	正	0.101	IEA
清洁低碳消费	低碳电力份额	正	0.159	Ember和Energy Institute
清洁低碳消费	可再生能源消耗占比	正	0.177	世界银行
能源效率	一次能源强度	负	0.107	世界银行
能源效率	电力碳强度	负	0.199	世界银行
可再生能源基础设施建设能力	人均可再生能源装机容量	正	0.068	IRENA
可再生能源基础设施建设能力	可再生能源总装机容量	正	0.021	IRENA

表 2 全球地缘环境指标体系构建

Table 2 Indicator system for global geopolitical environment

维度	指标	属性	综合权重	数据来源
政治环境	民主指数	正	0.093	Democracy Index
	和平指数	负	0.086	Global Peace Index
	清廉指数	正	0.102	Corruption Perceptions Index
	法治水平	正	0.098	The Worldwide Governance Indicators
	监管质量	正	0.100	The Worldwide Governance Indicators
社会环境	基尼系数	负	0.092	由夜间灯光计算得出
	总失业人数	负	0.057	世界银行
	医疗卫生支出占GDP比重	正	0.105	世界银行
	人类发展指数	正	0.082	Human Development Index
经济环境	年通胀率	负	0.017	世界银行
	对外贸易依存度	负	0.049	世界银行
	GDP增长率	正	0.120	世界银行

图 1 全球能源转型指数的时间演变趋势

Fig.1 Temporal evolution trends of global energy transition indices

图 2 能源转型各维度指数的时间演变趋势

Fig.2 Temporal evolution trends of dimensional indices for energy transition

图 3 能源转型各指标得分的时间演变趋势

Fig.3 Temporal evolution trends of each indicator's scores for energy transition

图 4 九大地区能源转型指数时间演变趋势

Fig.4 Temporal evolution trends of energy transition indices for nine regions

图 5 2021年九大地区能源转型各维度指数

Fig.5 Dimensional indices of energy transition for nine regions in 2021

图 6 全球地缘环境指数时间演变趋势

Fig.6 Temporal evolution trends of indices for global geopolitical environment

图 7 地缘环境各维度指数时间演变趋势

Fig.7 Temporal evolution trends of dimensional indices for geopolitical environment

图 8 地缘环境各维度子指标得分时间演变趋势

Fig.8 Temporal evolution trends of each dimensional indicator's scores for geopolitical environment

图 9 九大地区地缘环境指数时间演变趋势

Fig.9 Temporal evolution trends of geopolitical environment indices for nine regions

图 10 2021年九大地区地缘环境各维度指数

Fig.10 Dimensional indices of geopolitical environment for nine regions in 2021

图 11 能源转型指数与地缘环境指数的交互分析

Fig.11 Analysis of the interaction between energy transition index and geopolitical environment index

图 12 能源转型与地缘环境各维度的斯皮尔曼相关系数

Fig.12 Spearman correlation coefficients between energy transition and geopolitical environment across dimensions

图 13 能源转型与地缘环境各指标的斯皮尔曼相关系数

Fig.13 Spearman correlation coefficients between energy transition indicators and geopolitical environment indicators

图 14 九大地区能源转型与地缘环境指数的斯皮尔曼相关系数

Fig.14 Spearman correlation coefficients of the energy transition index and the geopolitical-environment index in nine regions

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全球能源转型与地缘环境的交互关系

Interactions Between Global Energy Transition and Geopolitical Environment

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全球能源转型与地缘环境的交互关系

Interactions Between Global Energy Transition and Geopolitical Environment

RichHTML

PDF (PC)

可视化

摘要/Abstract

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参考文献 43

相关文章 13

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