考虑多重因素叠加情景的能源清洁低碳转型风险评估

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202309122

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

当前中国能源清洁低碳转型主要面临可持续供应、社会性、地缘性、制裁性等4个方面风险。通过建立能源清洁低碳转型的风险评估模型，按照“两两叠加、三三叠加、全部叠加”的组合方式，排列出11种风险因素叠加情景，基于层次分析法，研判了能源清洁低碳转型中各类情景出现的概率及造成的影响程度，据此提出电网企业作为服务能源清洁低碳转型和构建新型电力系统的骨干企业，应适度超前加强电网建设和调节性资源开发，推动构建面向能源清洁低碳转型的风险预警、政策动态评估以及关键原材料和“卡脖子”技术研发储备机制，重点防范双内生风险和双外部风险影响。

关键词: 能源转型, 清洁低碳, 多重因素, 叠加情景, 风险研判

Abstract:

At present, China's clean and low-carbon energy transformation mainly faces four risks: sustainable supply, sociality, geography, and sanctions. This article establishes a risk assessment model for clean and low-carbon energy transformation and arranges 11 superposed scenarios of risk factors according to the combinations of "superposition of two factors, three factors, and all factors". Based on the analytic hierarchy process, the probability and impact degree of various scenarios in clean and low-carbon energy transformation are studied. On this basis, power grid enterprises are suggested as backbone enterprises serving clean and low-carbon energy transformation and promoting new power system construction. It is necessary to moderately advance the construction of power grids and the development of regulatory resources, promote the construction of risk warning, policy dynamic evaluation, and key raw materials for clean and low-carbon energy transformation, as well as research and development reserve mechanisms of "bottleneck" technology, and focus on preventing the impact of dual endogenous risks and dual external risks.

Key words: energy transformation, clean and low-carbon, multiple factors, superimposed scenarios, risk assessment

王轶楠, 卢静, 陈星彤, 代红才. 考虑多重因素叠加情景的能源清洁低碳转型风险评估[J]. 中国电力, 2024, 57(3): 183-189.

Yinan WANG, Jing LU, Xingtong CHEN, Hongcai DAI. Risk Assessment of Clean and Low-Carbon Energy Transformation Considering Superimposed Scenario of Multiple Factors[J]. Electric Power, 2024, 57(3): 183-189.

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链接本文: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202309122

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/Y2024/V57/I3/183

图/表 5

参考文献 15

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风险因素叠加情景	发生概率	影响程度
①地缘性+社会性	★★★	●
②制裁性+社会性	★★★	●
③可持续性供应+社会性	★★★★★	●●
④地缘性+制裁性	★★★★☆	●●
⑤可持续性供应+地缘性	★★★☆	●
⑥可持续性供应+制裁性	★★★★	●●
⑦地缘性+制裁性+社会性	★★☆	●●●
⑧可持续性供应+社会性+地缘性	★★	●●●
⑨可持续性供应+社会性+制裁性	★★	●●●●
⑩制裁性+地缘性+可持续性供应	★★★	●●●●
⑪社会性+地缘性+制裁性+可持续性供应	☆	●●●●●

风险因素叠加情景	发生概率	影响程度
①地缘性+社会性	★★★	●
②制裁性+社会性	★★★	●
③可持续性供应+社会性	★★★★★	●●
④地缘性+制裁性	★★★★☆	●●
⑤可持续性供应+地缘性	★★★☆	●
⑥可持续性供应+制裁性	★★★★	●●
⑦地缘性+制裁性+社会性	★★☆	●●●
⑧可持续性供应+社会性+地缘性	★★	●●●
⑨可持续性供应+社会性+制裁性	★★	●●●●
⑩制裁性+地缘性+可持续性供应	★★★	●●●●
⑪社会性+地缘性+制裁性+可持续性供应	☆	●●●●●

风险因素叠加情景	发生概率	概率区间/%	平均概率/%
①地缘性+社会性	★★★	(20, 30]	25.0
②制裁性+社会性	★★★	(20, 30]	25.0
③可持续性供应+社会性	★★★★★	(45, 100]	72.5
④地缘性+制裁性	★★★★☆	(40, 45]	42.5
⑤可持续性供应+地缘性	★★★☆	(30, 35]	32.5
⑥可持续性供应+制裁性	★★★★	(35, 40]	37.5
⑦地缘性+制裁性+社会性	★★☆	(15, 20]	17.5
⑧可持续性供应+社会性+ 地缘性	★★	(10, 15]	12.5
⑨可持续性供应+社会性+ 制裁性	★★	(10, 15]	12.5
⑩制裁性+地缘性+可持续性供应	★★★	(20, 30]	25.0
⑪社会性+地缘性+制裁性+ 可持续性供应	☆	(0, 5]	2.5

风险因素叠加情景	发生概率	概率区间/%	平均概率/%
①地缘性+社会性	★★★	(20, 30]	25.0
②制裁性+社会性	★★★	(20, 30]	25.0
③可持续性供应+社会性	★★★★★	(45, 100]	72.5
④地缘性+制裁性	★★★★☆	(40, 45]	42.5
⑤可持续性供应+地缘性	★★★☆	(30, 35]	32.5
⑥可持续性供应+制裁性	★★★★	(35, 40]	37.5
⑦地缘性+制裁性+社会性	★★☆	(15, 20]	17.5
⑧可持续性供应+社会性+ 地缘性	★★	(10, 15]	12.5
⑨可持续性供应+社会性+ 制裁性	★★	(10, 15]	12.5
⑩制裁性+地缘性+可持续性供应	★★★	(20, 30]	25.0
⑪社会性+地缘性+制裁性+ 可持续性供应	☆	(0, 5]	2.5

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