基于元胞自动机的山火蔓延及电力线路故障概率计算新方法

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.201801158

中国电力 ›› 2019, Vol. 52 ›› Issue (11): 85-93.DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.201801158

基于元胞自动机的山火蔓延及电力线路故障概率计算新方法

刘辉¹, 李鹏飞², 林济铿², 王忠岳³

1. 国网安徽省电力有限公司, 安徽合肥 230022;
2. 同济大学电子与信息工程学院, 上海 200092;
3. 国网上海市电力公司市区供电公司, 上海 200080

收稿日期:2018-01-25 修回日期:2018-10-18 出版日期:2019-11-05 发布日期:2019-11-05
作者简介:刘辉(1978-),男,高级工程师,从事电网调度运行控制技术研究,E-mail:relayliu@163.com;李鹏飞(1994-),男,硕士研究生,从事机组组合、经济调度等研究,E-mail:lipengfei@tongji.edu.cn;林济铿(1967-),男,博士,教授,从事电力系统稳定性分析及控制、配网自动化、智能电网等研究,E-mail:mejklin@126.com;王忠岳(1991-),男,助理工程师,从事电力系统大数据研究,E-mail:1151182094@qq.com
基金资助:
国家电网公司科技项目（复杂配电网多态可视化仿真技术研究与开发）。

New Algorithm of Forest Fire Spread Simulation Based on Cellular Automata and Power Line Fault Probability Calculation

LIU Hui¹, LI Pengfei², LIN Jikeng², WANG Zhongyue³

1. State Grid Anhui Electric Power Company, Hefei 230022, China;
2. College of Electronics and Information Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China;
3. State Grid Shanghai Electric Power Company, Shanghai 200080, China

Received:2018-01-25 Revised:2018-10-18 Online:2019-11-05 Published:2019-11-05
Supported by:
This work is supported by Science and Technology Project of SGCC (Research and Development of Polymorphic Visual Simulation Technology for Complex Distribution Network)

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 山火灾害已成为输电线路跳闸停运的重要原因之一。针对当前元胞自动机模型对山火蔓延过程没有考虑元胞的邻域元胞及次邻胞之间的差异，使山火蔓延的模拟精度偏低，导致电力线路在山火灾害下故障概率计算精度低的问题，提出了计及邻域元胞及次邻域元胞蔓延过程中的重叠面积的山火蔓延模拟新算法，并基于该算法得到的火场面积结果，提出电力线路故障概率计算新方法。该山火蔓延新算法计及了不同蔓延情况的重叠面积并提出了相应的计算方法，基于此构建了元胞状态改进转换规则和相应的山火蔓延模拟新算法，获得更为准确的山火蔓延边界及面积；进而提出了基于此的线路故障概率计算新方法，可得到更为准确的山火导致的线路故障概率。算例证明了提出方法的有效性。

关键词: 输电线路, 跳闸, 山火, 元胞自动机, 重叠面积, 模拟算法

Abstract: Forest fire has been one of the important reasons for the transmission line outrage. Current cellular automata model for the simulating forest fire spread doesn't consider different spread scenarios of neighbor cells, resulting in low simulation accuracy and low accuracy of failure probability of power lines under mountain fire disaster condition. In this paper, A new forest fire spread simulation algorithm is proposed, considering overlapping area of adjacent neighbor cells spreading area and adjacent neighbor cell spreading area. Based on the area, the new method of calculating the power line failure probability is further presented. The new algorithm takes into account overlapping area in different spread scenarios and puts forward the corresponding calculating method. Based on this, an improved conversion rule of cell states and corresponding new forest fire simulation algorithm are constructed, obtaining more accurate forest fire spread front and area. Furthermore, a new method for calculating the line fault probability is proposed, which can obtain the line fault probability caused by the more accurately. The example proves the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Key words: transmission line, trip, forest fire, cellular automata, overlapping area, simulation algorithm

中图分类号:

TM75

刘辉, 李鹏飞, 林济铿, 王忠岳. 基于元胞自动机的山火蔓延及电力线路故障概率计算新方法[J]. 中国电力, 2019, 52(11): 85-93.

LIU Hui, LI Pengfei, LIN Jikeng, WANG Zhongyue. New Algorithm of Forest Fire Spread Simulation Based on Cellular Automata and Power Line Fault Probability Calculation[J]. Electric Power, 2019, 52(11): 85-93.

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https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/Y2019/V52/I11/85

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基于元胞自动机的山火蔓延及电力线路故障概率计算新方法

New Algorithm of Forest Fire Spread Simulation Based on Cellular Automata and Power Line Fault Probability Calculation

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基于元胞自动机的山火蔓延及电力线路故障概率计算新方法

New Algorithm of Forest Fire Spread Simulation Based on Cellular Automata and Power Line Fault Probability Calculation

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