配电系统短期可靠性评估方案

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.2016.12.015.06

中国电力 ›› 2016, Vol. 49 ›› Issue (12): 15-20.DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.2016.12.015.06

配电系统短期可靠性评估方案

董雷¹，赵灿¹，陈乃仕²，蒲天骄²，庞晓晋³

1. 华北电力大学，北京 102206;
2. 中国电力科学研究院，北京 100192;
3. 中国大唐集团公司，北京 100033

收稿日期:2016-03-03 出版日期:2016-12-20 发布日期:2016-12-29
作者简介:董雷（1967—），女，内蒙古呼和浩特人，副教授，从事电力系统分析、运行与控制研究。E-mail: hbdldl@126.com
基金资助:
国家电网公司科技项目（52020116000D）

Short-term Reliability Assessment Scheme for Distribution System

DONG Lei¹, ZHAO Can¹, CHEN Naishi², PU Tianjiao², PANG Xiaojin³

1. North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China;
2. Electric Power Research Institute, Beijing 100192, China;
3. China Datang Corporation, Beijing 100033, China

Received:2016-03-03 Online:2016-12-20 Published:2016-12-29
Supported by:
This work is supported by the Science and Technology Project of SGCC (No. 52020116000D).

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 现有配电系统可靠性评估大多基于长期历史数据的平均可靠性，缺少对配电系统短期可靠性快速评估的模型及方法。针对配电网具体元件特点及短期内元件状态，提出一种配电系统短期可靠性评估方案，分别由基于失负荷的配电系统短期可靠性指标，基于改进条件相依的元件短期停运率模型以及基于前推故障扩散算法的配电系统短期可靠性评估分析方法。通过仿真分析，说明所定义的短期可靠性指标的实用性以及评估算法的有效性，为配电系统的短期现场运行提供理论基础与调度指导。

关键词: 配电系统, 短期可靠性, 失负荷概率, 改进条件相依模型, 前推故障扩散

Abstract: The majority of the existing reliability assessments of distribution system are for long-term average reliability. The reliability assessment for short-term or online operation is rare. Considering the characteristics and short-term conditions of elements in distribution system, this paper proposes a short-term reliability assessment scheme for distribution system, which adds the load loss conditions to define short-term reliability indices of distribution system, and uses the improved conditions dependent element model to obtain short-term outage rates, and the forward failure diffusion algorithm to evaluate and analyze the short-term reliability of the distribution system. Through simulation analysis, the feasibility of the short-term reliability indices and the effectiveness of short-term reliability model are confirmed, which may provide a theoretical basis and dispatching guidance for short-term operations of distribution systems.

Key words: distribution system, short-term reliability, load loss probability, improved conditions dependent model, forward failure diffusion

中图分类号:

TM712

董雷，赵灿，陈乃仕，蒲天骄，庞晓晋. 配电系统短期可靠性评估方案[J]. 中国电力, 2016, 49(12): 15-20.

DONG Lei, ZHAO Can, CHEN Naishi, PU Tianjiao, PANG Xiaojin. Short-term Reliability Assessment Scheme for Distribution System[J]. Electric Power, 2016, 49(12): 15-20.

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配电系统短期可靠性评估方案

Short-term Reliability Assessment Scheme for Distribution System

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配电系统短期可靠性评估方案

Short-term Reliability Assessment Scheme for Distribution System

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