经济新常态下中国全社会用电量与GDP增速差距研究

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.201708230

中国电力 ›› 2017, Vol. 50 ›› Issue (12): 5-9.DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.201708230

经济新常态下中国全社会用电量与GDP增速差距研究

谭显东, 单葆国, 吴姗姗, 单保平

1. 国网能源研究院有限公司，北京　102209;
2. 国网山东诸城市供电公司，山东诸城　262200

收稿日期:2017-08-18 出版日期:2017-12-20 发布日期:2018-01-30
作者简介:谭显东（1979— ），男，四川彭州人，博士，高级工程师，从事电力经济、能源经济、电力需求侧管理等领域研究。E-mail: tanxiandong@sgeri.sgcc.com.cn
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划资助项目（2016YFB0900100）；国家电网公司科技项目（XM2017020034761）

Study on the Difference Between China^,s Total Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth Under the New Normal

TAN Xiandong, SHAN Baoguo, WU Shanshan, SHAN Baoping

1. State Grid Energy Research Institute Co.,Ltd., Beijing 102209, China;
2. State Grid Zhucheng Power Supply Company, Zhucheng 262200, China

Received:2017-08-18 Online:2017-12-20 Published:2018-01-30
Supported by:
This work is supported by National Key Research and Development Program of China (No. 2016YFB0900100) and the Science and Technology Project of SGCC (No. XM2017020034761).

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 随着中国经济进入新常态，全社会用电量增速低于GDP增速，部分年份二者差异较大。建立了全社会用电量与GDP增速差距测算模型，主要由结构效应、单耗效应、居民效应3部分组成。该模型能够全面、科学测算全社会用电量与GDP增速差距的具体构成以及造成二者差距的主要原因。2012—2016年，中国全社会用电量增速比GDP增速分别低2.3、0.2、3.2、5.9和1.8个百分点，其中单耗效应使全社会用电量增速比GDP增速分别低2.7、0.4、1.9、4.9、1.5个百分点，结构效应使前者比后者分别提高0.1、0.1、–0.6、–0.8、–0.8个百分点，居民效应使前者比后者分别提高0.3、0.1、–0.7、–0.2、0.5个百分点。测算结果表明，单耗效应是导致全社会用电量增速低于GDP增速的主要原因。

关键词: GDP增速, 用电量增速, 新常态, 差距

Abstract: Since China^,s economy entered a new normal, the growth rate of total electricity consumption has been lower than that of GDP, and in some years, their difference is large. A model is established in this paper for calculating the difference between the electricity consumption and GDP growth rate, which is mainly composed of structure effect, intensity effect and residential effect. The model can comprehensively and scientifically measure the specific compositions of the gap between the total electricity consumption and GDP growth rate and analyze the main reasons for their gap. It is found through the model calculation that the total electricity consumption growth rate from the year 2012 to 2016 is lower than that of GDP by 2.3, 0.2, 3.2, 5.9 and 1.8 percentage points, respectively, of which the intensity effect makes the total electricity consumption growth rate lower than that of GDP by 2.7, 0.4, 1.9, 4.9 and 1.5 percentage points respectively, while the structure effect makes the electricity consumption growth rate 0.1 higher, 0.1 higher, 0.6 lower, 0.8 lower and 0.8 lower than the GDP growth rate in percentage points, respectively, and the residential effect makes the electricity consumption growth rate 0.3 higher, 0.1 higher, 0.7 lower, 0.2 lower, 0.5 higher than the GDP growth rate in percentage points, respectively. The calculation results show that the intensity effect is the key reason for the total electricity consumption growth rate being lower than that of GDP.

Key words: GDP growth rate, electricity consumption growth rate, new normal, gap

中图分类号:

TM71
F123.9

谭显东, 单葆国, 吴姗姗, 单保平. 经济新常态下中国全社会用电量与GDP增速差距研究[J]. 中国电力, 2017, 50(12): 5-9.

TAN Xiandong, SHAN Baoguo, WU Shanshan, SHAN Baoping. Study on the Difference Between China^,s Total Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth Under the New Normal[J]. Electric Power, 2017, 50(12): 5-9.

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经济新常态下中国全社会用电量与GDP增速差距研究

Study on the Difference Between China^,s Total Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth Under the New Normal

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经济新常态下中国全社会用电量与GDP增速差距研究

Study on the Difference Between China,s Total Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth Under the New Normal

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Study on the Difference Between China^,s Total Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth Under the New Normal