基于物元模型的电力变压器全寿命周期成本风险评价

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.2014.12.127.5

中国电力 ›› 2014, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (12): 127-132.DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.2014.12.127.5

基于物元模型的电力变压器全寿命周期成本风险评价

徐玉琴¹, 任正¹, 詹翔灵¹, 李通¹, 胡伟涛², 乔国华², 谢庆¹

1. 华北电力大学,河北保定 071003;
2. 国网河北省电力公司,河北石家庄 050000

收稿日期:2014-08-29 出版日期:2014-12-18 发布日期:2015-12-08
作者简介:徐玉琴（1963—）,女,河北保定人,教授,从事电力系统及其自动化研究。E-mail: xuyuqin_ncepu@126.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助项目（51307060）; 河北省高等学校科学技术研究指导项目（Z2013086）; 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目（2014MS84）; 新能源电力系统国家重点实验室开放基金资助项目（LAPS14011）; 国家电网公司科技项目（kj2013-065）

Life Cycle Cost Risk Assessment of Power Transformer Based on Matter-Element Model

XU Yu-qin¹, REN Zheng¹, ZHAN Xiang-ling¹, LI Tong¹, HU Wei-tao², QIAO Guo-hua², XIE Qing¹

1. Department of Electrical Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Baoding 071003, China;
2. State Grid Hebei Electric Power Company, Shijiazhuang 050000, China

Received:2014-08-29 Online:2014-12-18 Published:2015-12-08
Supported by:
This work is supported by Project Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(51307060); Colleges and Universities in Hebei Province Science and Technology Research Project(Z2013086); Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(2014MS84); State Key Laboratory of Alternate Electrical Power System with Renewable Energy Source (LAPS14011); State Grid Corporation Project (kj2013-065)

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 对电力变压器全寿命周期成本建模中的风险因素进行评估,是提高全寿命周期成本管理科学性的重要手段。针对影响变压器全寿命周期成本的风险因素,建立了变压器全寿命周期成本风险指标体系,引入物元模型和可拓分析理论,将定性指标定量化,提出了变压器全寿命周期成本风险评价物元模型。结合实例,将变压器全寿命周期成本管理时的不确定因素量化,构建了全寿命周期成本风险评估体系,应用物元模型评定变压器成本风险隶属等级,同时得到影响变压器全寿命周期成本管理的关键风险因素,供在实际应用中针对各种风险因素提出相应管控策略参考。

关键词: 变压器, 全寿命周期成本, 指标体系, 可拓分析, 物元模型, 风险评价

Abstract: Assessment of risk factors in power transformer life cycle cost modeling is important for improving the efficiency of transformer life cycle cost management. According to the risk factors in transformer life cycle cost, a risk assessment index system of transformer life cycle cost is established, and a matter-element model for transformer life cycle cost risk assessment is proposed by introducing the matter-element model and extension analysis theory to quantify the qualitative indexes. Through case study, the uncertain factors in power transformer life cycle cost management are quantified and a life cycle cost risk assessment system is established. The matter-element model is used to evaluate the risk rating of the transformer cost, and the key risk factors in transformer cost are obtained. In practice, some control strategies can be proposed for various risk factors.

Key words: transformer, life cycle cost, index system, extension analysis, matter-element model, risk assessment

中图分类号:

TM41

徐玉琴, 任正, 詹翔灵, 李通, 胡伟涛, 乔国华, 谢庆. 基于物元模型的电力变压器全寿命周期成本风险评价[J]. 中国电力, 2014, 47(12): 127-132.

XU Yu-qin, REN Zheng, ZHAN Xiang-ling, LI Tong, HU Wei-tao, QIAO Guo-hua, XIE Qing. Life Cycle Cost Risk Assessment of Power Transformer Based on Matter-Element Model[J]. Electric Power, 2014, 47(12): 127-132.

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https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/Y2014/V47/I12/127

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基于物元模型的电力变压器全寿命周期成本风险评价

Life Cycle Cost Risk Assessment of Power Transformer Based on Matter-Element Model

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基于物元模型的电力变压器全寿命周期成本风险评价

Life Cycle Cost Risk Assessment of Power Transformer Based on Matter-Element Model

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