基于火电行业环境影响评价的趋势预测方法

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.2013.9.150.4

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 2006—2012年中国共有477个火电项目通过环评审批。以环评报告书为数据源整理并分析火电建设项目覆盖的项目投资额、环保投资额、装机容量,对比研究“十一五”期间全国火电项目的实际投资变化,以时间序列分析及灰色关联分析建立了基于环评的行业发展趋势预测分析方法。研究发现,火电行业环评审批较项目实际建成投运具有3.5年的提前期,并据此预测2013—2015年火电行业发展趋势,及其将带来的资源消耗、污染物排放等资源环境压力。

关键词: 火电, 环境影响评价, 投资, 趋势预测

Abstract: During the period of 2006-2012, the EIAs of 477 thermal power projects were approved by the state. Based on an analysis of the data of the approved environmental impact assessment(EIA) reports in terms of project investment, environmental protection investment and installed capacities and a contrast study of the approved investment and actual investment of the thermal project constructed during the 11th Five-year(2006-2010) period, an EIA-based trend predication method was proposed for thermal power industry development according to the time series analysis and grey correlation analysis. The research shows that it takes 3.5 years to complete the project construction after approval of project’s EIA. Accordingly the development trend and the resources and environmental pressure brought about by resource consumption and pollutant emissions of thermal power industry was forecasted for the period of 2013-2015.

Key words: thermal power, EIA, investment, trend prediction

中图分类号:

TK01+8

吴亚男, 任景明, 丁峰. 基于火电行业环境影响评价的趋势预测方法[J]. 中国电力, 2013, 46(9): 150-154.

WU Ya-nan, REN Jing-ming, DING Feng. EIA-Based Trend Prediction Method of Thermal Power Industry[J]. Electric Power, 2013, 46(9): 150-154.

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链接本文: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.2013.9.150.4

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/Y2013/V46/I9/150

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