考虑耦合作用的电网业务组合投资优化

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202301026

中国电力 ›› 2024, Vol. 57 ›› Issue (3): 197-205.DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202301026

考虑耦合作用的电网业务组合投资优化

王永利¹(), 马子奔¹(), 秦雨萌¹, 卢艳超², 蔺媛³

1. 华北电力大学经济与管理学院，北京　102206
2. 国网经济技术研究院有限公司，北京　102209
3. 华北电力大学新能源学院，北京　102206

收稿日期:2023-01-11 接受日期:2023-09-06 出版日期:2024-03-28 发布日期:2024-03-26
作者简介:王永利（1980—），男，通信作者，博士，教授，从事电网投资、综合能源系统规划运行研究，E-mail：wyl_2001_ren@126.com
马子奔（1997—），男，硕士研究生，从事电网投资、综合能源系统规划运行研究，E-mail：maziben2021@163.com
基金资助:
国家社科基金重大项目资助（面向国家能源安全的智慧能源创新模式与政策协同机制研究，19ZDA081）；国家电网有限公司科技项目（双碳背景下综合能源系统多市场—多主体交易优化理论与关键技术研究及应用示范，SGJNDK00JBJS2100255）。

Optimization of Power Grid Business Portfolio Investment Considering Coupling Effects

Yongli WANG¹(), Ziben MA¹(), Yumeng QIN¹, Yanchao LU², Yuan LIN³

1. School of Economics and Management, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China
2. State Grid Economic and Technological Research Institute Co., Ltd., Beijing 102209, China
3. School of New Energy, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China

Received:2023-01-11 Accepted:2023-09-06 Online:2024-03-28 Published:2024-03-26
Supported by:
This work is supported by National Social Science Foundation of China (Research on Smart Energy Innovation Model and Policy Synergy Mechanism for National Energy Security, No.19ZDA081) and Science & Technology Project of SGCC (Research and Application Demonstration of Multi-market-multi-object Trading Optimization Theory and Key Technology for Integrated Energy System in the Context of Double Carbon, No.SGJNDK00JBJS2100255).

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

电网业务正处于传统业务向新兴业务变革的关键时期，由于电网业务发展的多样性，应考虑业务的相互影响，准确量化业务投资价值。分析业务间耦合作用，构建业务耦合作用评价体系，并通过Choquet模糊积分量化了电网业务耦合程度，构建适应未来发展新环境的电网业务投资价值评价体系，构建了考虑耦合作用的电网业务组合投资优化模型。在算例中，包含综合能源业务、储能业务、电动汽车业务的组合投资价值最高，为2.024，其中，业务基础投资价值为1.870，耦合投资价值为0.154。通过算例分析验证了考虑电网业务耦合作用的必要性与投资优化模型的适用性，支撑电网公司制定电网业务组合投资决策。

关键词: 电网业务, 耦合作用, Choquet模糊积分, 投资价值, 投资优化

Abstract:

Power grid business is in a critical period of transformation from traditional business to emerging business. Due to the diversity of grid business development, the interplay between businesses should be considered to accurately quantify the investment value of businesses. This paper analyzes the coupling effect between businesses, constructs an evaluation system of business coupling effects to quantify the degree of grid business coupling through Choquet fuzzy integral, constructs an evaluation system of grid business investment value suitable for the new environment of future development, and constructs an optimization model of grid business portfolio investment taking into account the coupling effects. In the case study, the portfolio investment value, covering the comprehensive energy business, energy storage business and electric vehicle business, is 2.024, ranking the highest, among which, the basic investment value of business is 1.87 and the coupling investment value is 0.154. The case study verifies the necessity to consider the grid business coupling and the applicability of the investment optimization model. The results of this study can provide a support for the grid company to make the grid business portfolio investment decision.

Key words: power grid business, coupling, Choquet fuzzy integral, investment value, investment optimization

王永利, 马子奔, 秦雨萌, 卢艳超, 蔺媛. 考虑耦合作用的电网业务组合投资优化[J]. 中国电力, 2024, 57(3): 197-205.

Yongli WANG, Ziben MA, Yumeng QIN, Yanchao LU, Yuan LIN. Optimization of Power Grid Business Portfolio Investment Considering Coupling Effects[J]. Electric Power, 2024, 57(3): 197-205.

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链接本文: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202301026

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图/表 12

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业务名称	投资额	业务名称	投资额
输电业务Q₁	1.05	储能业务Q₅	1.20
配电业务Q₂	0.82	海上风电业务Q₆	1.52
售电业务Q₃	0.85	电动汽车业务Q₇	0.86
综合能源业务Q₄	0.95	电力数据业务Q₈	0.98

业务名称	投资额	业务名称	投资额
输电业务Q₁	1.05	储能业务Q₅	1.20
配电业务Q₂	0.82	海上风电业务Q₆	1.52
售电业务Q₃	0.85	电动汽车业务Q₇	0.86
综合能源业务Q₄	0.95	电力数据业务Q₈	0.98

耦合评价指标	权重	耦合评价指标	权重
生产资源耦合度X₁	0.1	管理资源耦合度X₄	0.1
技术资源耦合度X₂	0.1	业务协同度X₅	0.3
营销资源耦合度X₃	0.1	业务替代度X₆	0.3

耦合评价指标	权重	耦合评价指标	权重
生产资源耦合度X₁	0.1	管理资源耦合度X₄	0.1
技术资源耦合度X₂	0.1	业务协同度X₅	0.3
营销资源耦合度X₃	0.1	业务替代度X₆	0.3

评价主体	权重	评价主体	权重	评价主体	权重	评价主体	权重
$ {e_{\rm s1}} $	0.05	${e_{\rm j1} }$	0.075	$ {e_{\rm y1}} $	0.05	$ {e_{\rm g1}} $	0.075
$ {e_{\rm s2}} $	0.05	${e_{\rm j2} }$	0.075	$ {e_{\rm y2}} $	0.05	$ {e_{\rm g2}} $	0.075
$ {e_{\rm s3}} $	0.05	${e_{\rm j3} }$	0.075	$ {e_{\rm y3}} $	0.05	$ {e_{\rm g3}} $	0.075
$ {e_{\rm s4}} $	0.05	${e_{\rm j4} }$	0.075	$ {e_{\rm y4}} $	0.05	${e_{\rm g4} }$	0.075

考虑耦合作用的电网业务组合投资优化

Optimization of Power Grid Business Portfolio Investment Considering Coupling Effects

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主体	X₁	X₂	X₃	X₄	X₅	X₆	主体	X₁	X₂	X₃	X₄	X₅	X₆
e_s1	5	12	2	4	16	0	e_y1	10	16	5	12	21	0
e_s2	8	5	3	8	23	0	e_y2	11	12	8	10	23	0
e_s3	3	8	1	3	22	0	e_y3	8	14	7	8	18	0
e_s4	7	5	4	7	20	0	e_y4	7	11	6	9	19	0
e_j1	9	9	3	2	21	0	e_g1	6	8	4	8	17	0
e_j2	4	7	0	5	23	0	e_g2	2	9	3	10	19	0
e_j3	2	12	2	8	18	0	e_g3	4	12	8	11	22	0
e_j4	3	10	4	3	23	0	e_g4	3	14	4	6	16	0

主体	评价值	主体	评价值	主体	评价值	主体	评价值
e_s1	8.42	e_j1	9.76	e_y1	11.26	e_g1	8.37
e_s2	11.67	e_j2	10.67	e_y2	10.34	e_g2	11.78
e_s3	9.67	e_j3	10.87	e_y3	8.75	e_g3	10.32
e_s4	8.37	e_j4	9.23	e_y4	9.93	e_g4	8.65

耦合业务	综合评价值/%	耦合业务	综合评价值/%	耦合业务	综合评价值/%	耦合业务	综合评价值/%
r₁₂	8.32	r₂₃	8.71	r₃₅	1.24	r₄₈	0.57
r₁₃	6.54	r₂₄	2.34	r₃₆	0.27	r₅₆	9.56
r₁₄	5.32	r₂₅	1.35	r₃₇	2.75	r₅₇	2.86
r₁₅	4.18	r₂₆	1.38	r₃₈	5.31	r₅₈	0.75
r₁₆	8.52	r₂₇	1.21	r₄₅	6.21	r₆₇	0.24
r₁₇	1.27	r₂₈	0.37	r₄₆	1.20	r₆₈	0.13
r₁₈	0.31	r₃₄	0.51	r₄₇	3.24	r₇₈	3.27

业务	战略价值	安全价值	社会价值	经济价值	环保价值	总价值
Q₁	0.09	0.18	0.16	0.08	0.06	0.57
Q₂	0.07	0.16	0.15	0.09	0.08	0.55
Q₃	0.07	0.12	0.13	0.13	0.07	0.52
Q₄	0.11	0.08	0.14	0.15	0.16	0.64
Q₅	0.14	0.10	0.12	0.12	0.14	0.62
Q₆	0.18	0.11	0.11	0.14	0.23	0.77
Q₇	0.13	0.09	0.16	0.11	0.12	0.61
Q₈	0.10	0.12	0.13	0.17	0.08	0.60

业务	边际效益	业务	边际效益
Q₁	0.54	Q₅	0.52
Q₂	0.67	Q₆	0.51
Q₃	0.61	Q₇	0.71
Q₄	0.67	Q₈	0.61

组合序号	业务组合	投资价值
1	综合能源+储能+电动汽车	2.024
2	输电+综合能源+储能	2.022
3	配电+海上风电+电动汽车	1.966
4	综合能源+储能+电力数据	1.956
5	配电+售电+海上风电	1.955

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考虑耦合作用的电网业务组合投资优化

Optimization of Power Grid Business Portfolio Investment Considering Coupling Effects

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参考文献 25

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