Evaluation model for setting TOU electricity pricing peak and valley periods considering multi-dimensional value of power regulation

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202502042

Abstract

Abstract:

Time-of-use (TOU) pricing policy serves as a crucial pricing mechanism for power systems to adapt to high penetration of clean energy and enhance security of power supply, and the rationality of peak-valley period setting has become a key evaluation metric for the ongoing adjustments of policies in recent years. However, limited by data availability and timeliness, the comparative analysis-based traditional evaluation methods are inadequate for the new evaluation demands. Based on a review of the latest trends in TOU pricing policy adjustments, this paper proposes an evaluation model for setting TOU pricing peak and valley periods incorporating the multidimensional value of power regulation. The model adopts the confusion matrix method to reduce its excessive reliance on historical data. In addition, it establishes a multidimensional value system for power regulation to avoid inefficient "whack-a-mole" approaches for peak-shaving and valley-filling. Meanwhile, designed with flexible and tunable parameter weights, it is applicable to diverse assessment scenarios with varying expectations and priorities, thereby providing a viable solution for evaluating TOU pricing periods under data constraints. Finally, the evaluation model is validated using real load data, renewable energy output data, and spot market price data. The results demonstrate that the proposed model achieves better alignment with current policies and possesses the flexible, adjustable capability to conduct forward-looking assessments based on parameter weight adjustments.

Key words: time-of-use electricity pricing, peak shaving and valley filling, power load regulation, electricity pricing evaluation model, multidimensional value of power regulation

LI Junlong, ZHANG Chao, JIANG Yitian, YAO Li, YOU Peipei, GUO Sen. Evaluation model for setting TOU electricity pricing peak and valley periods considering multi-dimensional value of power regulation[J]. Electric Power, 2026, 59(2): 114-126.

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URL: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202502042

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/Y2026/V59/I2/114

Figures/Tables 22

Fig.1 Total load, net load and clean energy output in a region

Fig.2 Net load curve under the first version of TOU electricity price policy

Fig.3 Net load curve under the second version of TOU electricity price policy

Fig.4 Multi-dimensional value structure for power regulation

Table 1 Confusion matrix based on net load curve

	电价峰段	电价非峰段
负荷峰段	真正例 P_T	假负例 N_F
负荷非峰段	假正例 P_F	真负例 N_T

Table 2 Confusion matrix based on peak-shaving value

	电价峰段	电价非峰段
峰段削减价值较大值	真正例 $ {P}_{\rm pT} $	假负例 $ {N}_{\rm pF} $
峰段削减价值非较大值	假正例 $ {P}_{\rm pF} $	真负例 $ {N}_{\rm pT} $

Table 3 Confusion matrix based on valley-filling value

	电价谷段	电价非谷段
谷段填充价值较大值	真正例 $ {P}_{\rm vT} $	假负例 $ {N}_{\rm vF} $
谷段填充价值非较大值	假正例 $ {P}_{\rm vF} $	真负例 $ {N}_{\rm vT} $

Fig.5 Typical daily load, wind and solar power output, spot prices, and TOU pricing peak and valley periods

Table 4 Evaluation results of the net load curve-based confusion matrix

时段	真正率/%	假正率/%
电价峰段	75.00	12.00
电价谷段	75.00	12.00

Fig.6 Calculation results of peak-shaving value metrics for a typical day

Fig.7 Cumulative chart of peak-shaving value metrics for a typical day

Fig.8 Calculation results of valley-filling value metrics for a typical day

Fig.9 Cumulative chart of vally-filling value metrics for a typical day

Table 5 Evaluation results of power-regulation multi-dimensional value curve-based confusion matrix

时段	真正率/%	假正率/%
电价峰段	87.50	6.30
电价谷段	100.00	0.00

Fig.10 Cumulative chart of valley-filling value metrics after increased clean energy penetration

Fig.11 Cumulative chart of valley-filling value metrics after increased clean energy curtailment rate and clean energy share weight

Fig.12 Net load distribution map in a province in Eastern China, 2024

Fig.13 Cumulative chart of peak-shaving value metrics in a province in Eastern China, 2024

Fig.14 Cumulative chart of valley-filling value metrics in a province in Eastern China, 2024

Fig.15 Confusion matrix evaluation results based on peak-shaving value in a province in Eastern China, 2024

Fig.16 Confusion matrix evaluation results based on valley-filling value in a province in Eastern China, 2024

Table 6 Annual average confusion matrix evaluation results from net load and value curve data

时段	基于净负荷曲线		基于价值曲线
时段	真正率/%	假正率/%	真正率/%	假正率/%
电价峰段	58.00	21.00	74.10	12.90
电价谷段	73.00	13.50	82.50	8.90

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