Distributed Photovoltaic Power Interval Prediction Based on Spatio-Temporal Correlation Feature and B-LSTM Model

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202310049

Abstract

Abstract:

A distributed photovoltaic (PV) power interval prediction method based on spatio-temporal correlation features and bayesian long short-term memory (B-LSTM) model is proposed. The approximate Bayesian neural network is constructed by adding a Dropout layer based on the LSTM neural network to establish a B-LSTM model considering spatio-temporal correlation features, and its powerful memory and feature extraction capabilities are used to extract deep features for distributed PV power interval prediction for intrinsic mode function components with different feature scales. An arithmetic example is analysed with an actual distributed PV dataset in a region to verify the superiority of the proposed method.

Key words: distributed photovoltaics, spatio-temporal correlation, interval prediction

Haijun WANG, Rongrong JU, Yinghua DONG. Distributed Photovoltaic Power Interval Prediction Based on Spatio-Temporal Correlation Feature and B-LSTM Model[J]. Electric Power, 2024, 57(7): 74-80.

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URL: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202310049

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/Y2024/V57/I7/74

Figures/Tables 9

Table 1 Evaluation of projected results

方法	P_icp	P_iaw/kW
本文所提模型	0.932	0.934
B-LSTM	0.859	0.953
CEEMDAN-QRNN	0.833	1.158
QRNN	0.799	1.257

Fig.1 Comparison of forecast results for site 1

Fig.2 Comparison of forecast results for site 2

Table 2 Evaluation of predicted results for site 1

方法	P_icp	P_iaw/kW
本文所提模型	0.994	0.963
B-LSTM	0.946	1.020
CEEMDAN-QRNN	0. 972	1.318
QRNN	0.969	1.426

Table 3 Evaluation of predicted results for site 2

方法	P_icp	P_iaw/kW
本文所提模型	0.982	0.908
B-LSTM	0.968	0.983
CEEMDAN-QRNN	0. 975	1.383
QRNN	0.971	1.406

Fig.3 Comparison of forecast results for site 1 on days of strong volatility

Fig.4 Comparison of forecast results for site 2 on days of strong volatility

Table 4 Evaluation of prediction results for site 1 on strongly fluctuating days

方法	P_icp	P_iaw/kW
本文所提模型	0.922	1.096
B-LSTM	0.833	1.382
CEEMDAN-QRNN	0. 858	1.469
QRNN	0.832	1.594

Table 5 Evaluation of prediction results for site 2 on strongly fluctuating days

方法	P_icp	P_iaw/kW
本文所提模型	0.928	1.088
B-LSTM	0.858	1.268
CEEMDAN-QRNN	0. 830	1.348
QRNN	0.821	1.396

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