Adequacy Evaluation of Power System Ramping Capability Based on Net Load Forecast Error Statistics

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202309084

Abstract

Abstract:

In the context of rapid development of renewable energy, the power system is required to keep sufficient ramping capability for coping with the renewable generation's fluctuation and intermittence. Analyzing the supply-demand situation of the power system's ramping capability can discover the risk of insufficient ramping capability and improve the security and stability of the power system operation. This paper firstly proposes the logic and procedure for power system ramping capability adequacy evaluation, and clarifies the definitions and concepts of the netload ramping capacity, uncertainty ramping capacity, surplus ramping capability and its demand-supply ratio. And the theories and specific calculation methods for estimating the netload forecast error based on the confidence statistics and quantile regression, as well as the specific calculation methods for the above parameters, are subsequently proposed. Finally, an example analysis is carried out based on the data of forty historical operating days and four typical days in Guangdong to validate the effectiveness of the proposed adequacy evaluation method. This research indicates that the surplus ramping capability demand-supply ratio can effectively identify the ramping characteristics in different typical days and special periods, reflecting the adequacy of ramping capability in the day and minute scale; the indicators such as coverage, excess, and estimation quantity can be used to evaluate the applicability of error estimation models in different regions and scenarios, serving as a reference for model selection.

Key words: ramping capability adequacy, demand-supply ratio, netload forecast error, confidence statistics, quantile regression

Zhongfei CHEN, Yue ZHAO, Qiuna CAI, Qiaoyu ZHANG, Zelin WANG, Xiaojuan DAI, Yuguo CHEN. Adequacy Evaluation of Power System Ramping Capability Based on Net Load Forecast Error Statistics[J]. Electric Power, 2024, 57(5): 50-60.

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URL: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202309084

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/Y2024/V57/I5/50

Figures/Tables 9

Fig.1 The flow chart of power system ramping capability adequacy evaluation

Fig.2 The netload ramping capacity, uncertainty ramping capacity and surplus ramping capability for typical days

Fig.3 The demand-supply ratio of surplus ramping capability for typical days

Fig.4 The scatter and line chart of the net load forecast error rate

Fig.5 The scatter and line chart of the load forecast error

Fig.6 The scatter and line chart of the photovoltaic generation forecast error

Fig.7 The scatter and line chart of the wind power generation forecast error

Fig.8 The indicator schematic for confidence statistics and quantile regression

Table 1 The comparison of indicators for confidence statistics and quantile regression

项目	置信数统计法	分位数回归法
覆盖率/%	95.36	96.02
正误差超出量/GW	121.90	104.50
正误差预估量/TW	24.70	26.30
负误差超出量/GW	112.90	103.00
负误差预估量/TW	25.60	28.00

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