A long-term power generation investment decision-making method considering carbon emission impacts

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202401044

Abstract

Abstract:

To meet the demand for low-carbon transition of new power systems, this paper develops a long-term decision-making analysis model for power generation investment. First, the model considers the strategic decision-making of conventional price-leading generation, as well as the perfectly competitive decision-making of newly market-entering renewable generation as price-takers, to satisfy the long-term carbon emission reduction constraints. Second, a centralized quadratic programming approach based on the Nash-Gounod game is used to analyze the day-ahead electricity market prices. Then, in the proposed model, investment decisions (once a year) and production decisions (in each time period within a year) are made simultaneously, and an open-loop Gounod game model is built accordingly. Finally, the performance of the proposed method is evaluated in a simulated electricity market, where the game is tested over a period of up to 20 years, and the price and investment decisions under a series of scenarios, as well as the impacts of the number of market participants, emission limits, or emission policies, are analyzed. The results show that the application of the proposed method can achieve deep system decarbonization, which verifies its effectiveness.

Key words: carbon reduction, electricity market, Cournot game, low-carbon economy

WENG Geping, CUI Linning, JIANG Han, REN Jiaorong, HAN Yinfeng, CHEN Hanwen. A long-term power generation investment decision-making method considering carbon emission impacts[J]. Electric Power, 2026, 59(4): 94-104.

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URL: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202401044

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/Y2026/V59/I4/94

Figures/Tables 14

Fig.1 Method structure

Fig.2 Existing installed capacity and share of different participants

Table 1 Investment economic parameters

参数	煤炭	燃气	光伏	风能
$ {C}_{g,2020} $/(元·MW^–1)	340	480	0	0
${C_{{\text{IC}},{g,2020}}}$/(元·MW^–1)	28×10⁶	11×10⁶	8×10⁶	1.2×10⁶
${C_{{\text{FC}},{g,2020}}}$/(元·年^–1·MW^–1)	376200	182400	138600	150000
机组寿命${l_g}$/年	30	30	25	30
${\bar C _g}^{{\text{inv}}}$/(年·MW^–1)	5000	5000	5000	5000
${\bar C _g}^{{\text{inv-tot}}}$/MW	10000	10000	10000	10000

Table 2 Scenario Settings

公司	基准场景		场景1		场景2		场景3		场景4
公司	投资项	角色	投资项	角色	投资项	角色	投资项	角色	投资项	角色
2		战略	煤,气	战略	煤,气	战略	煤,气,风,光	战略	煤,气,风,光	战略
3		战略	煤,气	战略	煤,气	战略	煤,气,风,光	战略	煤,气,风,光	战略
4		战略	煤,气	战略	煤,气	战略	煤,气	战略	煤,气	战略
8			风,光	完全竞争	风,光	战略	风,光	战略	风,光	完全竞争

Fig.3 Annual average electricity prices in different execution scenarios

Fig.4 Supply share in different execution scenarios

Fig.5 Investment levels in different execution scenarios

Fig.6 Emission levels under different carbon emission reduction levels

Fig.7 Annual average electricity prices in carbon emission reduction cases

Fig.8 Cumulative investment level in carbon emission reduction cases

Fig.9 Carbon emission prices in carbon emission reduction cases

Fig.10 Annual emissions under different emission standards

Fig.11 The impact of emission standards on total investment and average prices

Fig.12 The impact of the number of participants on total investment and average price

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