Carbon Emission Factors and Decoupling Effects of China's Power Industry under the Background of Carbon Peak

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202306019

Abstract

Abstract:

It is of great practical significance to explore the driving factors and decoupling effects of CO₂ emissions in electric power industry, which can not only promote the realization of "dual carbon" goal, but also improve the overall environmental quality in China. In this paper, the CO₂ emissions of China's electric power industry from 2004 to 2020 are estimated, and the driving factors and decoupling status of CO₂ emissions of the electric power industry are studied with the LMDI model and Tapio decoupling model. On this basis, the CO₂ emissions and the decoupling status of the electric power industry during 2021-2030 were analyzed based on the SSA-LSSVM prediction model. The results show that: (1) the economic growth is the main factor of CO₂ emission growth in the electric power industry, and the effects of power production structure and power production intensity have an obvious inhibition effects on CO₂ emissions; (2) during the whole study period, the CO₂ emissions from the power industry was in a weak decoupling status from economic growth; (3) from the predicted value of CO₂ emissions from the electric power industry, the CO₂ emissions from the electric power industry show an upward trend under the baseline scenario, low-carbon scenario and strong low-carbon scenario, and the CO₂ emissions from the electric power industry is in a weak decoupling status from economic growth during 2022-2030. Based on the research results, in order to reduce the CO₂ emissions of China's electric power industry, it is proposed to change the economic growth mode to achieve the green and low-carbon economic growth, to develop clean energy to build a new power system, to promote low-carbon technology innovation to realize the decoupling of carbon emissions of electric power industry.

Key words: CO₂ emissions, LMDI model, electric power industry, Tapio decoupling

Xudong LI, Qingbo TAN, Haochen ZHAO, Ning QIAO, Liwei LIU, Caixia TAN, Zhongfu TAN. Carbon Emission Factors and Decoupling Effects of China's Power Industry under the Background of Carbon Peak[J]. Electric Power, 2024, 57(5): 88-98.

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URL: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202306019

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/Y2024/V57/I5/88

Figures/Tables 9

References 29

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脱钩状态		$ {\Delta \mathit{E}}_{\mathbf{C}\mathbf{E}} $	$ {\Delta \mathit{E}}_{\mathbf{g}\mathbf{d}\mathbf{p}} $	e
脱钩	强脱钩	＜0	＞0	(–∞, 0]
	弱脱钩	＞0	＞0	(0, 0.8]
	衰弱脱钩	＜0	＜0	(1.2, +∞)
连接	增长连接	＞0	＞0	(0.8, 1.2]
连接	衰弱连接	＜0	＜0	(0.8, 1.2]
负脱钩	强负脱钩	＞0	＜0	(–∞, 0]
	弱负脱钩	＜0	＜0	(0, 0.8]
	增长负脱钩	＞0	＞0	(1.2, +∞)

脱钩状态		$ {\Delta \mathit{E}}_{\mathbf{C}\mathbf{E}} $	$ {\Delta \mathit{E}}_{\mathbf{g}\mathbf{d}\mathbf{p}} $	e
脱钩	强脱钩	＜0	＞0	(–∞, 0]
	弱脱钩	＞0	＞0	(0, 0.8]
	衰弱脱钩	＜0	＜0	(1.2, +∞)
连接	增长连接	＞0	＞0	(0.8, 1.2]
连接	衰弱连接	＜0	＜0	(0.8, 1.2]
负脱钩	强负脱钩	＞0	＜0	(–∞, 0]
	弱负脱钩	＜0	＜0	(0, 0.8]
	增长负脱钩	＞0	＞0	(1.2, +∞)

周期	$ \Delta {{E}}_{\rm{C}\rm{F}} $	$ \Delta {{E}}_{\rm{F}\rm{H}} $	$ \Delta {{E}}_{\rm{P}\rm{S}} $	$ \Delta {{E}}_{\rm{E}\rm{X}} $	$ \Delta{{E}}_{\rm{g}\rm{d}\rm{p}} $	$ \Delta {{E}}_{\rm{C}\rm{E}} $
2004—2005	–1.57	–0.27	–10.97	–48.32	161.13	100.00
2005—2006	–1.00	–32.40	17.58	–25.33	141.16	100.00
2006—2007	–1.71	–50.71	0.49	–72.80	224.74	100.00
2007—2008	–3.06	–54.20	–136.07	–621.82	915.15	100.00
2008—2009	–1.29	–30.96	13.33	–5.89	124.81	100.00
2009—2010	–1.38	–216.39	–30.99	–110.71	459.47	100.00
2010—2011	–0.32	–10.60	16.78	–46.73	140.86	100.00
2011—2012	–0.37	68.18	–231.13	–134.08	397.40	100.00
2012—2013	–0.02	14.95	–2.06	6.28	80.85	100.00
2013—2014	0.08	125.53	49.16	8.63	–83.40	100.00
2014—2015	0.36	72.30	44.27	20.27	–37.20	100.00
2015—2016	–0.57	7.28	–105.43	34.59	164.12	100.00
2016—2017	–0.03	33.65	–15.42	–26.84	108.64	100.00
2017—2018	–0.12	–60.22	–17.05	24.24	153.14	100.00
2018—2019	0.07	49.57	–45.44	–3.11	98.91	100.00
2019—2020	–0.25	45.69	–31.06	78.33	7.29	100.00

周期	$ \Delta {{E}}_{\rm{C}\rm{F}} $	$ \Delta {{E}}_{\rm{F}\rm{H}} $	$ \Delta {{E}}_{\rm{P}\rm{S}} $	$ \Delta {{E}}_{\rm{E}\rm{X}} $	$ \Delta{{E}}_{\rm{g}\rm{d}\rm{p}} $	$ \Delta {{E}}_{\rm{C}\rm{E}} $
2004—2005	–1.57	–0.27	–10.97	–48.32	161.13	100.00
2005—2006	–1.00	–32.40	17.58	–25.33	141.16	100.00
2006—2007	–1.71	–50.71	0.49	–72.80	224.74	100.00
2007—2008	–3.06	–54.20	–136.07	–621.82	915.15	100.00
2008—2009	–1.29	–30.96	13.33	–5.89	124.81	100.00
2009—2010	–1.38	–216.39	–30.99	–110.71	459.47	100.00
2010—2011	–0.32	–10.60	16.78	–46.73	140.86	100.00
2011—2012	–0.37	68.18	–231.13	–134.08	397.40	100.00
2012—2013	–0.02	14.95	–2.06	6.28	80.85	100.00
2013—2014	0.08	125.53	49.16	8.63	–83.40	100.00
2014—2015	0.36	72.30	44.27	20.27	–37.20	100.00
2015—2016	–0.57	7.28	–105.43	34.59	164.12	100.00
2016—2017	–0.03	33.65	–15.42	–26.84	108.64	100.00
2017—2018	–0.12	–60.22	–17.05	24.24	153.14	100.00
2018—2019	0.07	49.57	–45.44	–3.11	98.91	100.00
2019—2020	–0.25	45.69	–31.06	78.33	7.29	100.00

周期	脱钩指数	脱钩状态	周期	脱钩指数	脱钩状态
2004—2005	0.5396	弱脱钩	2012—2013	1.1450	弱脱钩
2005—2006	0.6112	弱脱钩	2013—2014	–1.2065	强脱钩
2006—2007	0.3843	弱脱钩	2014—2015	–2.7414	强脱钩
2007—2008	0.0991	弱脱钩	2015—2016	0.5901	弱脱钩
2008—2009	0.7537	弱脱钩	2016—2017	0.8489	增长连接
2009—2010	0.1945	弱脱钩	2017—2018	0.6140	弱脱钩
2010—2011	0.6145	弱脱钩	2018—2019	0.9635	增长连接
2011—2012	0.2394	弱脱钩	2019—2020	13.3877	增长负脱钩