Probabilistic Load Forecasting Method of High Voltage Substation Based on Hierarchical Measurement Data

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202209110

Abstract

Abstract: In recent years, the continuous upgrading and improvement of measurement systems at all levels in the power system makes it possible to further improve the accuracy of load forecasting in high-voltage substations. Based on the multi-level load data of high-voltage substation and its auxiliary medium voltage outgoing line and medium voltage distribution transformer, the paper proposes a bottom-up probabilistic load forecasting method based on medium voltage outgoing line and medium voltage distribution, analyzes the distribution characteristics of the results and completes the load accumulation. In addition, in order to improve the prediction accuracy, the probability prediction method is used to correct the prediction deviation caused by network loss and measurement error. The results of example analysis show that the comprehensive evaluation of the proposed method is better. It can not only get high accuracy load point forecasting results, but also delimit smaller forecasting intervals.

Key words: layered measurement data, high voltage substation, bottom up, probabilistic load forecasting

TANG Xuchen, CHAO Zhu, DUAN Qinwei, SU Binghong, CHEN Huican. Probabilistic Load Forecasting Method of High Voltage Substation Based on Hierarchical Measurement Data[J]. Electric Power, 2023, 56(8): 143-150.

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URL: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202209110

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/Y2023/V56/I8/143

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