Abstract:

The green and low-carbon transformation of China's power sector serves as a crucial underpinning for advancing Chinese modernization. Taking 30 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government of China from 2015 to 2023 as the research sample, this paper employs a three-stage super-efficiency SBM-Malmquist index model that accounts for output lags to measure the efficiency of the green and low-carbon transformation of the power sector. The findings reveal that, based on the revised analysis of power output considering the time lag effect, the lag periods of renewable energy power consumption and the proportion of electricity in terminal energy consumption are 1 period and 3 periods respectively. Energy pricing mechanism refinement and urbanization progression have exerted a significant positive driving effect on the green and low-carbon transformation of the electric power sector, with their beneficial impacts substantially outweighing the negative inhibitory effects stemming from economic development stages and industrial structure. The external factors leads to an overestimation of the average comprehensive efficiency of green and low-carbon transformation in the power sector. Additionally, the recalibrated actual efficiency level demonstrates a spatial distribution pattern of West ＞ East ＞ Central, with notable inter-provincial differences. The total factor productivity (TFP) of the power sector's green and low-carbon transformation exhibits a fluctuating trend, and the pulling effect of technological advancements has mitigated the negative constraints caused by low technical efficiency.

Key words: green and low-carbon transformation, time lag effect, three-stage super-efficiency SBM, Malmquist index