Abstract:

The transformation from energy consumption "dual control" to carbon "dual control" system will bring about the surge in demand for renewable energy, and increase the level of new energy development and terminal electrification, which, at present, may increase the pressure of new energy consumption and power supply. The integrated economy-energy-environment model estimates the effects of the transformation of "dual control" system on the appraised total amount and relevant indicators. The key of the transformation from energy consumption "dual control" to carbon "dual control" lies in reasonable determination of the controlling indicators, comprehensive improvement of basic conditions, and order coordination of implementation scopes. The study shows that the later stage of the "Fourteenth Five-Year Plan" is the early stage of the transformation of the dual control system, during which the construction of basic conditions need to be strengthened, and pilot demonstrations shall be conducted in several provinces and cities. The early stage of the "Fifteenth Five-Year Plan" is the middle stage of the transformation, during which the appraised indicators are mainly carbon emission intensity, supplemented by the total carbon emission. The later stage of the "Fifteenth Five-Year Plan" is the period of completion of the transformation, during which the basic conditions are available, and the appraised indicators realizes the comprehensive transition of energy to carbon, and the industries incorporated into the carbon market are removed from the "dual control" of administrative divisions.

Key words: energy consumption "dual control", carbon "dual control", dual control indicators, increased renewable energy, promotion path