Assessment on Line-breakage Risk in Transmission Network based on Dynamic Probability Power Flow

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.201809112

Abstract

Abstract: The random variation of load and wind power output is not considered in the conventional power flow-based line-breakage risk assessment methods. The dynamic probability power flow is thus applied in the assessment of line-breakage risk in transmission network. Firstly, the dynamic probability model of load and wind power output is established. Secondly, the overload probability and the node voltage violation probability of non-fault branch lines are calculated using the dynamic probability power flow when line-breakage occurs in the power network. And then, the sequence severity indices are obtained based on power betweenness of lines and nodes. Finally, by combining the probability of line-breakage with the sequence severity indices, the dynamic probability power flow -based assessment method is proposed on the line-breakage risk in transmission network. Simulation results show that the proposed line-breakage risk assessment method is scientific and rationale, and can provide an important theoretical basis for operation planning of transmission network.

Key words: wind power output, dynamic probability power flow, sequence severity, assessment of line-breakage risk, operation planning

CLC Number:

TM712

CHEN Ying, GUO Xiaomin, HUANG Yu, WANG Yao, YANG Jianwei. Assessment on Line-breakage Risk in Transmission Network based on Dynamic Probability Power Flow[J]. Electric Power, 2019, 52(5): 155-163.

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URL: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.201809112

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/Y2019/V52/I5/155

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