中国电力 ›› 2013, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (8): 7-10.DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.2013.8.7.3

• 专稿 • 上一篇    下一篇

2013年中国电力供需形势分析预测

单葆国, 谭显东, 温权, 韩新阳   

  1. 国网能源研究院,北京 100052
  • 收稿日期:2013-07-07 出版日期:2013-08-23 发布日期:2015-12-10
  • 作者简介:单葆国(1971—),男,山东诸城人,高级工程师,从事宏观经济运行、电力经济关系、电力供需预测、需求侧管理等研究。

Analysis and Prediction of China’s Electricity Demand and Supply in 2013

SHAN Bao-guo, TAN Xian-dong, WEN Quan, HAN Xin-yang   

  1. State Grid Energy Research Institute, Beijing 100052, China
  • Received:2013-07-07 Online:2013-08-23 Published:2015-12-10

摘要: 分析了2013年1—5月中国电力供需特点,对2013年全年中国电力需求、供应和供需平衡情况进行了预测,提出了保障电力供应等方面的措施建议。研究结果表明,2013年中国全社会用电量将达到5.23万亿~5.33万亿kW·h,同比增长5.5%~7.5%;净增发电装机约9 000万kW,年底总装机容量将达到12.4亿kW。全国电力供需总体平衡,分区域看,华北地区电力供需偏紧,华东、华中及南方地区电力供需平衡,西北、东北地区电力供应富余。

关键词: 电力需求, 电力供应, 分析预测, 2013年

Abstract: Based on an analysis of China’s power demand and supply from January to May in 2013, a forecast was made to the country’s power demand and the balance of power demand & supply in the whole year of 2013 and some measures were proposed to guarantee the c power supply. It is predicted that China’s total electricity demand will reach 5 231~5 332 TW·h, growing by 5.5%~7.5%; the net installed generation capacity will increase by about 90 million kilowatts with the country’s total installed capacity of 1.24 billion kilowatts by the end of 2013; the country’s power demand and supply will be in balance in the whole, but varied in regions with, the power demand being a little bit higher than the supply in the North China, being in balance with the supply in the East, Central and South China, being lower than the supply in the Northeast and Northwest. China.

Key words: the year of 2013, power demand, power supply, analysis and prediction

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