2026年及“十五五”全国电力供需形势分析展望

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202512007

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

“十五五”时期是中国基本实现社会主义现代化进程中夯实基础、全面发力的关键时期。外部环境错综复杂，扰动因素增加，电力供需仍将面临一系列风险挑战。综合考虑经济形势、重点行业、气象因素、一次能源等影响因素，对2026年及“十五五”时期全国电力需求、电力供应进行分析预测，研判全国电力供需形势，提出保障电力供需平衡的对策建议。研究表明，在经济平稳增长、现代化产业体系加快构建等因素支撑下，“十五五”时期全社会用电量将保持较快增长，在“双碳”目标驱动下新能源装机占比将持续提升，电源结构将持续转向清洁低碳。电力供需形势整体呈现“前宽松、后趋紧”的特征，需要推动保障性和支撑性电源投产，引导新能源发挥保供支撑能力，加强跨省跨区互济支援，挖掘需求侧调节潜力，以保障“十五五”时期电力供需平衡。

关键词: 电力需求, 电力供应, 电力供需形势, "十五五"

Abstract:

The 15th Five-Year Plan period is a critical stage for consolidating the foundation and advancing in an all-round way in the process of China basically realizing socialist modernization. The external environment is intricate and complex, with an increasing number of disturbing factors, and the power supply and demand will still face a series of risks and challenges. Taking into comprehensive consideration the influencing factors such as economic situation, key industries, meteorological factors and primary energy, this paper conducts an analysis and forecast of the national power demand and supply in 2026 and the 15th Five-Year Plan period, makes an assessment of the national power supply and demand situation, and puts forward countermeasures and suggestions for ensuring the balance between power supply and demand. The research shows that supported by factors such as steady economic growth and accelerated construction of a modern industrial system, the national social electricity consumption will maintain rapid growth during the 15th Five-Year Plan period; driven by the "dual carbon" goals, the proportion of newly installed renewable energy capacity will keep rising, and the power source structure will continue to shift toward cleanliness and low carbonization. The overall power supply and demand situation will be characterized by "loose in the early stage and tight in the later stage". It is necessary to promote the commissioning of guaranteed and supportive power sources, guide renewable energy to play a supporting role in power supply guarantee, strengthen inter-provincial and cross-regional mutual assistance and support, and tap the potential of demand-side regulation, so as to ensure the balance of power supply and demand during the 15th Five-Year Plan period.

Key words: power demand, power supply, power supply-demand situation, 15th Five-Year Plan

汲国强, 段金辉, 吴姗姗, 韩新阳, 尤培培, 张莉莉, 张煜. 2026年及“十五五”全国电力供需形势分析展望[J]. 中国电力, 2026, 59(2): 13-23.

JI Guoqiang, DUAN Jinhui, WU Shanshan, HAN Xinyang, YOU Peipei, ZHANG Lili, ZHANG Yu. Analysis and outlook on national power supply-demand situation for 2026 and the 15th Five-Year Plan period[J]. Electric Power, 2026, 59(2): 13-23.

导出引用管理器 EndNote|Ris|BibTeX

链接本文: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202512007

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/Y2026/V59/I2/13

图/表 8

图 1 电力供需分析预测模型框架

Fig.1 Framework of power supply-demand analysis and prediction model

表 1 2026年及“十五五”时期全国经济预测

Table 1 China's economic forecast for 2026 and the 15th Five-Year Plan period

项目	2026年增速/%			“十五五” 年均增速/%
项目	高方案	中方案（推荐）	低方案	“十五五” 年均增速/%
GDP	5.3	4.8	4.3	4.8
第一产业	4.0	3.5	3.0	3.0
第二产业	5.3	4.8	4.3	4.1
第三产业	5.5	5.0	4.5	5.5
工业增加值	5.5	5.0	4.5	4.4
固定资产投资	5.0	4.5	4.0	4.2
社会消费品零售总额	5.0	4.5	4.0	4.6
出口	5.0	3.0	1.0	2.0

表 2 2026年全社会用电量预测

Table 2 National social electricity consumption forecast for 2026

项目	低方案		中方案（推荐）		高方案
项目	用电量/ (亿kW·h)	增速/ %	用电量/ (亿kW·h)	增速/ %	用电量/ (亿kW·h)	增速/ %
全社会用电量	108465	4.5	109511	5.5	110539	6.5
第一产业	1604	7.2	1619	8.2	1641	9.7
第二产业	68698	3.5	69238	4.3	69670	5.0
第三产业	21370	7.3	21669	8.8	21987	10.4
居民生活	16793	4.9	16985	6.1	17241	7.7

图 2 2022年以来全社会用电量季度走势

Fig.2 Quarterly trend of national social electricity consumption in China since 2022

表 3 “十五五”时期全社会用电量预测

Table 3 National social electricity consumption forecast for the 15th Five-Year Plan period

方案	水平年/(亿kW·h)			年均增速/%		年均增量/(亿kW·h)
方案	2020 年	2025 年	2030 年	“十四五”	“十五五”	“十四五”	“十五五”
高	75214	103789	140980	6.7	6.3	5715	7438
中（推荐）	75214	103789	135480	6.7	5.5	5715	6338
低	75214	103789	131490	6.7	4.8	5715	5540

图 3 2026年新投产发电装机结构预测

Fig.3 Newly commissioned power generation installed capacity structure for 2026

图 4 2026年底发电装机结构预测

Fig.4 Power generation installed capacity structure by the end of 2026

图 5 2030年底发电装机结构预测

Fig.5 Power generation installed capacity structure by the end of 2030

参考文献 36

1	张琛, 葛睿, 靳晓凌, 等. 西班牙和葡萄牙4·28大停电关键问题分析及经验启示[J]. 中国电力, 2025, 58 (12): 119- 127.
	ZHANG Chen, GE Rui, JIN Xiaoling, et al. Analysis of key issues and implications of the April 28 great power blackout in Spain and Portugal[J]. Electric Power, 2025, 58 (12): 119- 127.
2	高红均, 郭明浩, 刘俊勇, 等. 从四川高温干旱限电事件看新型电力系统保供挑战与应对展望[J]. 中国电机工程学报, 2023, 43 (12): 4517- 4537.
	GAO Hongjun, GUO Minghao, LIU Junyong, et al. Power supply challenges and prospects in new power system from Sichuan electricity curtailment events caused by high-temperature drought weather[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE, 2023, 43 (12): 4517- 4537.
3	张成龙, 谭显东, 翁玉艳, 等. “十三五”以来电力消费增长原因分析及中长期展望[J]. 中国电力, 2019, 52 (8): 149- 156.
	ZHANG Chenglong, TAN Xiandong, WENG Yuyan, et al. Research on the reasons of the growth of electricity consumption during the 13th Five-Year Plan period and medium-and long-term perspective[J]. Electric Power, 2019, 52 (8): 149- 156.
4	刘青, 张莉莉, 李江涛, 等. “十四五”期间中国电力需求增长趋势研判[J]. 中国电力, 2022, 55 (1): 214- 219.
	LIU Qing, ZHANG Lili, LI Jiangtao, et al. Study on the trend of China's electricity consumption during the "14th Five-Year Plan"[J]. Electric Power, 2022, 55 (1): 214- 219.
5	余潇潇, 宋福龙, 周原冰, 等. “新基建”对中国“十四五”电力需求和电网规划的影响分析[J]. 中国电力, 2021, 54 (7): 11- 17.
	YU Xiaoxiao, SONG Fulong, ZHOU Yuanbing, et al. Investigations on the impact of new infrastructure on electricity forecast and power system planning during the 14th Five-Year Plan period[J]. Electric Power, 2021, 54 (7): 11- 17.
6	单葆国, 孙祥栋, 李江涛, 等. 经济新常态下中国电力需求增长研判[J]. 中国电力, 2017, 50 (1): 19- 24.
	SHAN Baoguo, SUN Xiangdong, LI Jiangtao, et al. Analysis on the China's electricity demand growth under the new economic norm[J]. Electric Power, 2017, 50 (1): 19- 24.
7	单葆国, 韩新阳, 谭显东, 等. 中国“十三五”及中长期电力需求研究[J]. 中国电力, 2015, 48 (1): 6- 10, 14.
	SHAN Baoguo, HAN Xinyang, TAN Xiandong, et al. Research on electricity demand of China during the 13^th Five-Year Plan and med-term- & long-term periods[J]. Electric Power, 2015, 48 (1): 6- 10, 14.
8	王韶华. 低碳经济视阈下我国电力需求的影响因素及其影响机理研究[J]. 经济问题探索, 2016 (4): 176- 182.
	WANG Shaohua. Research on influencing factors and influencing mechanism of China's power demand from the perspective of low carbon economy[J]. Inquiry into Economic Issues, 2016 (4): 176- 182.
9	白建华, 辛颂旭. 我国中长期发电供应能力研究[J]. 中国工程科学, 2011, 13 (6): 65- 74.
	BAI Jianhua, XIN Songxu. Study of mid-long term power supply capacity in China[J]. Engineering Sciences, 2011, 13 (6): 65- 74.
10	杨奇逊, 蒋宜国, 丛琳, 等. 我国电力中长期发展战略研究[J]. 中国工程科学, 2011, 13 (6): 57- 64.
	YANG Qixun, JIANG Yiguo, CONG Lin, et al. Research on mid-long term electric power development strategy in China[J]. Engineering Sciences, 2011, 13 (6): 57- 64.
11	谭显东, 刘俊, 徐志成, 等. “双碳”目标下“十四五”电力供需形势[J]. 中国电力, 2021, 54 (5): 1- 6.
	TAN Xiandong, LIU Jun, XU Zhicheng, et al. Power supply and demand balance during the 14th Five-Year Plan period under the goal of carbon emission peak and carbon neutrality[J]. Electric Power, 2021, 54 (5): 1- 6.
12	黄河, 王建学, 肖云鹏, 等. 新型电力系统电力电量平衡分析关键技术与研究框架[J]. 电力建设, 2024, 45 (9): 1- 12.
	HUANG He, WANG Jianxue, XIAO Yunpeng, et al. Key technologies and research framework for the power and energy balance analysis in new-type power systems[J]. Electric Power Construction, 2024, 45 (9): 1- 12.
13	董昱, 孙大雁, 许丹, 等. 新型电力系统电力电量平衡的挑战、应对与展望[J]. 中国电机工程学报, 2025, 45 (6): 2039- 2056.
	DONG Yu, SUN Dayan, XU Dan, et al. Challenges, response and prospects for power balance in new power systems[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE, 2025, 45 (6): 2039- 2056.
14	新华社. 在第七十五届联合国大会一般性辩论上的讲话[EB/OL]. (2020-09-22)[2025-11-24]. https://www.gov.cn/gongbao/content/2020/content_5549875.htm.
15	新华社. 习近平主持召开中央财经委员会第九次会议[EB/OL]. (2021-03-15)[2025-11-24]. http://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2021-03/15/content_5593154.htm.
16	陈郑平, 李文忠, 陈飞雄, 等. 分布式资源助力新型电力系统灵活性提升研究综述[J]. 电力工程技术, 2025, 44 (2): 145- 159.
	CHEN Zhengping, LI Wenzhong, CHEN Feixiong, et al. Summary of research on improving the flexibility of new power systems with distributed resources[J]. Electric Power Engineering Technology, 2025, 44 (2): 145- 159.
17	高明, 曾平良, 冯永朝. 新型电力系统中的虚拟电厂研究综述[J]. 电力工程技术, 2025, 44 (6): 143- 154.
	GAO Ming, ZENG Pingliang, FENG Yongchao. Review of virtual power plant in new power system[J]. Electric Power Engineering Technology, 2025, 44 (6): 143- 154.
18	寇晓适, 王德琳, 柯佳颖, 等. 基于雷达回波与LSTM的输电线路强对流灾害风险预警方法[J]. 电力工程技术, 2024 (5): 189- 198.
	KOU Xiaoshi, WANG Delin, KE Jiaying, et al. Risk early warning method of severe convective disasters for transmission lines based on radar echo and LSTM[J]. Electric Power Engineering Technology, 2024 (5): 189- 198.
19	叶林, 裴铭, 杨建宾, 等. 极端天气下的新能源电力系统电力电量平衡体系[J]. 电力系统自动化, 2025, 49 (4): 2- 18.
	YE Lin, PEI Ming, YANG Jianbin, et al. Electric power and energy balancing system for power system with renewable energy in extreme weather[J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2025, 49 (4): 2- 18.
20	姜海洋, 蒋明华, 丁坤, 等. 极端静稳天气事件下电力系统风险评估与管控[J]. 电力系统自动化, 2025, 49 (4): 42- 52.
	JIANG Haiyang, JIANG Minghua, DING Kun, et al. Risk assessment and control of power system under extreme steady weather events[J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2025, 49 (4): 42- 52.
21	中国电力企业联合会. 中国电力统计年鉴2021[R]. 北京: 中国统计出版社, 2021.
22	中国电力企业联合会. 2024年全国电力工业统计快报一览表[R]. 北京: 中国电力企业联合会, 2025.
23	邬琼. 混频模型在我国宏观经济预测中的应用研究[J]. 价格理论与实践, 2024 (2): 28- 34, 108.
	WU Qiong. Research on the application of mixed frequency model in macroeconomic forecasting in China[J]. Price: Theory & Practice, 2024 (2): 28- 34, 108.
24	于施洋, 王建冬, 易成岐. 宏观经济大数据分析[M]. 北京: 社会科学文献出版社, 2021.
25	丁一兵, 张弘媛. 中美贸易摩擦对中国制造业全球价值链地位的影响[J]. 当代经济研究, 2019 (1): 76- 84, 113.
	DING Yibing, ZHANG Hongyuan. The impact of Sino-US trade friction on the status of China's manufacturing industry in global value chain[J]. Contemporary Economic Research, 2019 (1): 76- 84, 113.
26	中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第四次全体会议. 中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第四次全体会议公报[EB/OL]. (2025-10-23)[2025-11-24]. https://www.gov.cn/yaowen/liebiao/202510/content_7045444.htm?siteId=tianjin.
27	刘青, 张成龙, 熊华文, 等. 基于技术分析的主要高耗能产品单耗预测方法及展望[J]. 中国电力, 2023, 56 (1): 166- 172.
	LIU Qing, ZHANG Chenglong, XIONG Huawen, et al. Prediction method and prospect of unit consumption of main high energy consuming products based on technical analysis[J]. Electric Power, 2023, 56 (1): 166- 172.
28	康重庆, 夏清, 刘梅. 电力系统负荷预测(第二版)[M]. 北京: 中国电力出版社, 2017.
29	中国电子学会. 中国绿色数据中心发展报告(2020)[R]. 北京: 中国电子学会, 2020.
30	国家发展改革委, 工业和信息化部. 贯彻落实碳达峰碳中和目标要求推动数据中心和5G等新型基础设施绿色高质量发展实施方案[Z/OL]. (2021-12-08)[2025-11-24]. https://www.ndrc.gov.cn/xwdt/tzgg/202112/P020211208390176098563.pdf.
31	国务院办公厅. 新能源汽车产业发展规划(2021-2035年)[R]. 北京: 国务院办公厅, 2020.
32	落基山研究所, 中国氢能联盟研究院. 开启绿色氢能新时代之匙: 中国2030年“可再生氢100”发展路线图[R]. 北京: 中国氢能联盟研究院, 2022.
33	国家发展改革委, 国家能源局. 氢能产业发展中长期规划(2021-2035年)[R/OL]. (2022-03-23)[2025-11-24]. http://www.ndrc.gov.cn/xxgk/zcfb/ghwb/202203/P020220323314396580505.pdf.
34	国务院新闻办公室. 中国气象局举行2025年9月新闻发布会[EB/OL]. (2025-09-12)[2025-11-24]. http://www.scio.gov.cn/xwfb/bwxwfb/gbwfbh/qxj/202509/t20250912_930568.html.
35	国务院. 2030年前碳达峰行动方案[EB/OL]. (2021-10-26)[2025-11-24]. https://www.gov.cn/zhengce/content/2021-10/26/content_5644984.htm.
36	国务院办公厅. 关于促进新时代新能源高质量发展的实施方案[Z/OL]. (2022-05-30)[2025-11-24]. https://www.gov.cn/zhengce/content/2022-05/30/content_5693013.htm.

[1]	叶小宁, 王彩霞, 李琼慧, 杨超. 国外新能源高占比电力系统电力供应保障措施及启示[J]. 中国电力, 2024, 57(4): 61-67.
[2]	单葆国, 刘青, 张莉莉, 郑海峰, 张成龙, 吴姗姗, 薛万磊. 新形势下“十四五”后三年中国电力需求形势研判[J]. 中国电力, 2023, 56(3): 1-11.
[3]	武群丽, 席曼. 基于电力供应链博弈的可再生能源政策效应研究[J]. 中国电力, 2022, 55(5): 12-20,38.
[4]	刘青, 张莉莉, 李江涛, 张成龙, 谭显东, 张凯, 郭威. “十四五”期间中国电力需求增长趋势研判[J]. 中国电力, 2022, 55(1): 214-219.
[5]	张运厚, 李婉莹, 董福贵. 基于DE-GWO-SVR的中长期电力需求预测[J]. 中国电力, 2021, 54(9): 83-88.
[6]	余潇潇, 宋福龙, 周原冰, 梁海峰. “新基建”对中国“十四五”电力需求和电网规划的影响分析[J]. 中国电力, 2021, 54(7): 11-17.
[7]	谭显东, 刘俊, 徐志成, 姚力, 汲国强, 单葆国. “双碳”目标下“十四五”电力供需形势[J]. 中国电力, 2021, 54(5): 1-6.
[8]	单葆国, 张成龙, 王向, 姚力, 刘青, 谭显东. 中国电力弹性系数与工业化阶段关系[J]. 中国电力, 2020, 53(7): 1-6.
[9]	张立锋, 何志强, 张金枝. 西藏“十四五”电力发展重点探讨[J]. 中国电力, 2020, 53(11): 111-115,138.
[10]	宋宗耘, 张健, 郑泽东, 肖鑫利, 贺元康. 电力需求侧管理政策激励过程的动态演化博弈分析[J]. 中国电力, 2019, 52(10): 54-64.
[11]	汪斌, 张欣欣, 嵇灵, 解玉磊. 北京市电力消耗驱动因素分析及需求预测[J]. 中国电力, 2018, 51(6): 178-184.
[12]	郭森, 崔永军, 贾浩, 赵名锐, 王玉玮, 赵会茹, 任义生. 新疆电力供需预测及电能消纳有效途径研究[J]. 中国电力, 2018, 51(5): 147-153.
[13]	杜忠明, 王雪松. “十三五”中国电力需求水平预测[J]. 中国电力, 2017, 50(9): 11-17.
[14]	迟远英, 刘蕾, 齐霁, 王新迎. 基于智慧能源视角影响北京市电力需求的灰色关联分析[J]. 中国电力, 2017, 50(6): 172-176.
[15]	贾德香, 吴姗姗. 2016年中国电力供需回顾及2017年预测[J]. 中国电力, 2017, 50(6): 1-5.