基于生产模拟与熵权法的“核蓄”联营规划

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202506027

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

抽水蓄能调峰削谷效果明显，与核电联营能够稳定核电利用小时数，但也将压缩新能源发电的消纳空间。针对这一矛盾，立足于系统效益开展了“核蓄”联营的规划研究。从出力等效与经济效益2个维度界定“核蓄”联营的合理配比。在此基础上，基于8 760 h生产模拟获取不同“核蓄”联营规模的系统发电成本、新能源消纳率、煤电发电量等关键数据画像。基于熵权法赋予关键指标客观权重，将多元数据凝聚为综合评价，准确推荐最优联营规模。结果表明，所建立的分析方法能够满足多指标维度下的“核蓄”联营规划，同时以合理规模开展“核蓄”联营能够获得关键指标约束下的最优综合效益。

关键词: 抽水蓄能, 核电, 生产模拟

Abstract:

Pumped storage demonstrates significant peak-shaving and valley-filling effects. While combined operations with nuclear power can stabilize the utilization hours of nuclear plants, they may also compress the generation space for renewable energy. To address this conflict, this paper explores the planning of "nuclear-pumped storage" combined operation from system benefits. First, the reasonable installation ratio is studied from two dimensions: output equivalence and economic benefits. On this basis, using an 8 760-hour production simulation, it obtains key data profiles such as system generation costs, renewable energy accommodation rates, and coal power generation volumes for different combined operation scales. Finally, based on the objective weights assigned to key indicators by the entropy weight method, it integrates multiple data into a comprehensive evaluation to accurately recommend the optimal combined operation scale. The results indicate that the established analysis method can meet the requirements for combined operation planning across multiple indicator dimensions; conducting combined operation at a reasonable scale can achieve optimal overall benefits under the constraints of key indicators.

Key words: pumped storage, nuclear power, production simulation

卓定明, 杜瑞, 杨远通, 葛海麟, 杨嘉伟, 徐箴箴, 易杨. 基于生产模拟与熵权法的“核蓄”联营规划[J]. 中国电力, 2025, 58(10): 180-187.

ZHUO Dingming, DU Rui, YANG Yuantong, GE Hailin, YANG Jiawei, XU Zhenzhen, YI Yang. Nuclear-Pumped Storage Combined Operation Planning Based on Production Simulation and Entropy Weight Method[J]. Electric Power, 2025, 58(10): 180-187.

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链接本文: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202506027

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/Y2025/V58/I10/180

图/表 8

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方案	核电总规模/ 万kW	抽水蓄能总规模/ 万kW	联营核电规模/ 万kW	联营抽水蓄能规模/ 万kW	联营核蓄配比	全省核电等效利用小时数/h
1	1 706	885	0	0	—	7 000
2	1 706	885	120	43	2.8∶1	7 049
3	1 706	885	240	86	2.8∶1	7 098
4	1 706	885	360	129	2.8∶1	7 148
5	1 706	885	480	172	2.8∶1	7 197
6	1 706	885	600	215	2.8∶1	7 246
7	1 706	885	720	258	2.8∶1	7 295
8	1 706	885	840	301	2.8∶1	7 345

方案	核电总规模/ 万kW	抽水蓄能总规模/ 万kW	联营核电规模/ 万kW	联营抽水蓄能规模/ 万kW	联营核蓄配比	全省核电等效利用小时数/h
1	1 706	885	0	0	—	7 000
2	1 706	885	120	43	2.8∶1	7 049
3	1 706	885	240	86	2.8∶1	7 098
4	1 706	885	360	129	2.8∶1	7 148
5	1 706	885	480	172	2.8∶1	7 197
6	1 706	885	600	215	2.8∶1	7 246
7	1 706	885	720	258	2.8∶1	7 295
8	1 706	885	840	301	2.8∶1	7 345

电源类型	利用小时数/h
电源类型	方案1	方案2	方案3	方案4	方案5	方案6	方案7	方案8
煤电	3 399	3 378	3 354	3 331	3 310	3 287	3 267	3 255
气电	1 314	1 323	1 352	1 378	1 390	1 419	1 439	1 459
水电	2 435	2 435	2 435	2 435	2 435	2 435	2 435	2 435
抽蓄	1 553	1 555	1 561	1 566	1 572	1 578	1 584	1 595
核电	6 999	7 054	7 110	7 164	7 220	7 275	7 331	7 388

电源类型	利用小时数/h
电源类型	方案1	方案2	方案3	方案4	方案5	方案6	方案7	方案8
煤电	3 399	3 378	3 354	3 331	3 310	3 287	3 267	3 255
气电	1 314	1 323	1 352	1 378	1 390	1 419	1 439	1 459
水电	2 435	2 435	2 435	2 435	2 435	2 435	2 435	2 435
抽蓄	1 553	1 555	1 561	1 566	1 572	1 578	1 584	1 595
核电	6 999	7 054	7 110	7 164	7 220	7 275	7 331	7 388

电源类型	发电量/(亿kW·h)
电源类型	方案1	方案2	方案3	方案4	方案5	方案6	方案7	方案8
煤电	1442.0	1433.0	1423.0	1413.0	1404.0	1395.0	1386.0	1381.0
气电	77.9	78.5	80.2	81.7	82.4	84.1	85.3	86.5
水电	295.0	295.0	295.0	295.0	295.0	295.0	295.0	295.0
抽蓄	137.4	137.7	138.2	138.6	139.1	139.6	140.2	141.2
核电	1195.0	1205.0	1214.0	1223.0	1233.0	1242.0	1252.0	1262.0