“十四五”期间中国电力需求增长趋势研判

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202006284

中国电力 ›› 2022, Vol. 55 ›› Issue (1): 214-219.DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202006284

“十四五”期间中国电力需求增长趋势研判

刘青¹, 张莉莉¹, 李江涛¹, 张成龙¹, 谭显东¹, 张凯², 郭威³

1. 国网能源研究院有限公司, 北京 102209;
2. 国网河北省电力有限公司, 河北石家庄 050021;
3. 国网河北省电力有限公司营销服务中心, 河北石家庄 050021

收稿日期:2019-12-07 修回日期:2020-11-02 出版日期:2022-01-28 发布日期:2022-01-20
作者简介:刘青(1994-),男,硕士,从事能源电力供需分析预测等研究,E-mail:liuqing@sgeri.sgcc.com.cn
基金资助:
国家电网有限公司科技项目(1300-202013387 A-0-0-00)。

Study on the Trend of China's Electricity Consumption during the “14 th Five Year Plan”

LIU Qing¹, ZHANG Lili¹, LI Jiangtao¹, ZHANG Chenglong¹, TAN Xiandong¹, ZHANG Kai², GUO Wei³

1. State Grid Energy Research Institute Co., Ltd., Beijing 102209, China;
2. State Grid Hebei Electric Power Co., Ltd., Shijiazhuang 050021, China;
3. State Grid Hebei Marketing Service Center, Shijiazhuang 050021, China

Received:2019-12-07 Revised:2020-11-02 Online:2022-01-28 Published:2022-01-20
Supported by:
This work is supported by the Science and Technology Project of SGCC (No.1300-202013387 A-0-0-00).

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 合理确定“十四五”期间电力需求水平是科学编制电力发展“十四五”规划的重要基础，综合考虑宏观经济、电能替代等电力需求影响因素，设置基本、敏感性方案，采用中长期分部门电力需求预测模型，对“十四五”期间中国电力需求水平进行预测。结果表明，基本、敏感性方案，2025年中国全社会用电量分别为9.85万亿kW·h、9.44万亿kW·h，“十四五”期间年均增速分别为5.6%、4.7%。按照电力规划适度超前的原则，建议采用“基本方案”结果作为“十四五”电力规划的边界条件。

关键词: 电力需求, 影响因素, 方案分析, 趋势研判

Abstract: At present, China has started the compilation of the "14th five year plan" for electric power development, and the electricity consumption level is an important boundary condition during the 14th Five Year Plan period. Considering the influence factors of power consumption, such as macro-economy and power substitution, the basic and sensitive scheme is set up, and the medium and long-term electricity consumption prediction model is adopted to forecast the electricity consumption level of China during the "14th five year plan". The results show that according to the basic and sensitive schemes, China's electricity consumption in 2025 will be 9.85 trillion and 9.44 trillion kWh respectively, and the average annual growth rate during the "14th five year plan" period will be 5.6% and 4.7% respectively. According to the principle of moderately advanced power planning, it is suggested that the results of the "basic scheme" be used as the boundary conditions of the "14th five year plan" electric power planning.

Key words: electricity consumption, influencing factors, scheme analysis, trend research

刘青, 张莉莉, 李江涛, 张成龙, 谭显东, 张凯, 郭威. “十四五”期间中国电力需求增长趋势研判[J]. 中国电力, 2022, 55(1): 214-219.

LIU Qing, ZHANG Lili, LI Jiangtao, ZHANG Chenglong, TAN Xiandong, ZHANG Kai, GUO Wei. Study on the Trend of China's Electricity Consumption during the “14 th Five Year Plan”[J]. Electric Power, 2022, 55(1): 214-219.

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“十四五”期间中国电力需求增长趋势研判

Study on the Trend of China's Electricity Consumption during the “14 th Five Year Plan”

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