中国电力弹性系数与工业化阶段关系

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202004057

中国电力 ›› 2020, Vol. 53 ›› Issue (7): 1-6.DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202004057

中国电力弹性系数与工业化阶段关系

单葆国^1,2, 张成龙¹, 王向¹, 姚力¹, 刘青¹, 谭显东¹

1. 国网能源研究院有限公司，北京 102209;
2. 华北电力大学资源与环境系统优化教育部重点实验室，北京 102206

收稿日期:2020-04-09 修回日期:2020-05-20 出版日期:2020-07-05 发布日期:2020-07-05
作者简介:单葆国（1971—），男，硕士，高级工程师（教授级），从事能源经济模型、电力市场分析预测、电力需求与经济发展关系、电力需求侧管理等研究，E-mail: shanbaoguo@sgeri.sgcc.com.cn;张成龙(1976—)，男，通信作者，博士，高级工程师，从事能源电力供需预测及预警研究，E-mail: zhangchenglong@sgeri.sgcc.com.cn
基金资助:
国家电网公司科技项目（基于新时代“两步走”战略的我国能源电力需求预测技术研究及应用，52130N18001G）

Relationship between Electricity Elasticity Coefficient and Industrialization Stage in China

SHAN Baoguo^1,2, ZHANG Chenglong¹, WANG Xiang¹, YAO Li¹, LIU Qing¹, TAN Xiandong¹

1. State Grid Energy Research Institute Co., Ltd., Beijing 102209, China;
2. MOE Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Systems Optimization, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China

Received:2020-04-09 Revised:2020-05-20 Online:2020-07-05 Published:2020-07-05
Supported by:
This work is supported by the Science and Technology Project of SGCC (Research and Application of Energy and Power Demand Forecasting Technology based on "Two Step" Strategy in the New Era, No.52130N18001G)

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 电力弹性系数是用以表征电力消费与经济增长之间关系的指标，研究电力弹性系数与工业化进程之间的关系，具有实际指导意义。主要结论是在工业化中期，各地区电力弹性系数普遍较高，之后出现明显下降；工业比重大的省份电力弹性系数比较高。“十四五”期间，中国经济实现高质量发展，电力需求将保持中速增长，全国电力弹性系数在0.83左右，与中国工业化后期发展阶段相吻合。

关键词: 电力弹性系数, 工业化阶段, 省级区域, 工业比重, 电力需求

Abstract: The electricity elasticity coefficient is an index used to express the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth. This paper studies the relationship between the electricity elasticity coefficient and industrialization process, which will have practical significance. The main conclusions of this study are that in the middle stage of industrialization, the electricity elasticity coefficient in various regions is generally high, and then it decreases obviously; the electricity elasticity coefficient in the provinces where the industry ratio is significant is relatively high. During the Fourteenth Five-Year Plan period (2021~2025), China will achieve high-quality economic development, and the electricity demand will maintain a moderate speed of growth with the national electricity elasticity coefficient of about 0.8, which is consistent with the later stage of China's industrialization.

Key words: electricity elasticity coefficient, industrialization stage, provincial region, industry ratio, electricity demand

单葆国, 张成龙, 王向, 姚力, 刘青, 谭显东. 中国电力弹性系数与工业化阶段关系[J]. 中国电力, 2020, 53(7): 1-6.

SHAN Baoguo, ZHANG Chenglong, WANG Xiang, YAO Li, LIU Qing, TAN Xiandong. Relationship between Electricity Elasticity Coefficient and Industrialization Stage in China[J]. Electric Power, 2020, 53(7): 1-6.

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中国电力弹性系数与工业化阶段关系

Relationship between Electricity Elasticity Coefficient and Industrialization Stage in China

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