中国风光资源气候风险时空变化特征分析

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202211009

中国电力 ›› 2023, Vol. 56 ›› Issue (5): 1-10.DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202211009

中国风光资源气候风险时空变化特征分析

孙景博¹, 王阳², 杨晓帆¹, 陆峥¹, 何源¹, 巢清尘²

1. 北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室, 北京 100875;
2. 国家气候中心, 北京 100081

收稿日期:2022-11-02 修回日期:2023-02-06 出版日期:2023-05-28 发布日期:2023-05-27
作者简介:孙景博(1992-),男,博士研究生,从事光伏设施气候环境生态效应和风光资源发电潜力等研究,E-mail:jingbosun@mail.bnu.edu.cn;王阳(1986-),男,通信作者,博士,高级工程师,从事风能太阳能资源评估与预报、能源转型与碳中和等研究,E-mail:wangyang@cma.gov.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助项目（42175191）；国家重点研发计划资助项目（风光资源开发的生态影响及应对技术研发与应用示范，2022YFF1303400）；中国气象局创新发展专项（碳排放提前达峰目标下重要部门和城市的气候风险研究，CXFZ2022J048）；北京师范大学防沙治沙教育部工程研究中心开放课题（2022-A13-1）；国家电网有限公司科技项目（面向碳达峰、碳中和目标的一二次能源综合平衡分析决策技术研究，5100-202155294A-0-0-00）；国家能源集团科技项目（我国储能应用场景仿真与国家能源集团发展战略研究，GJNY-21-143）。

Analysis of Spatial and Temporal Variation Character of Climate Risks of Wind and Solar Resources in China

SUN Jingbo¹, WANG Yang², YANG Xiaofan¹, LU Zheng¹, HE Yuan¹, CHAO Qingchen²

1. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;
2. National Climate Center, Beijing 100081, China

Received:2022-11-02 Revised:2023-02-06 Online:2023-05-28 Published:2023-05-27
Supported by:
This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.42175191), National Key R&D Program of China (Research and Development and Application Demonstration of Ecological Impact and Response Technology of Scenic Resources Development, No.2022YFF1303400), China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Innovation and Development Project (Research on Climate Risk of Important Departments and Cities Under the Target of Carbon Emission Reaching Peak in Advance, No.CXFZ2022J048), Beijing Normal University MOE Engineering Research Center of Desertification and Blown-Sand Control Project (No.2022-A13-1), Science and Technology Project of SGCC (Research on Comprehensive Balance Analysis and Decision-Making Technology of Primary and Secondary Energy for Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutral Targets, No.5100-202155294A-0-0-00), Science and Technology Project of National Energy Group (Simulation of Energy Storage Application Scenarios and Research on National Energy Group's Development Strategy, No.GJNY-21-143).

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为实现“双碳”目标，须大幅提升以风能、太阳能为代表的可再生能源在中国未来能源结构中的比重。然而，风能和太阳能发电受局地气候条件的影响，具有间歇性、波动性和不稳定性。加之近年来，极端天气气候事件呈现“多发、频发、强发、并发”的态势，严重制约了风光资源的有效利用。因此，开展风光资源的气候风险研究，对提高风光资源利用率、降低风光发电能源安全风险具有重要的理论和实践意义。基于中国2007—2014年高分辨率风能、太阳能资源数据库，从风光低出力的程度、范围、持续时间、发生频次等多个维度，定量分析全国“无风无光”事件的时空变化特征。结果表明：中国目前“无风无光”事件分布具有明显的季节和地域差异。其中，风光资源气候风险主要出现在秋冬两季；而高频次“无风无光”事件的发生区域主要位于新疆、四川和长江中游等地区。研究结果可为未来中国风光电场选址与地区可再生能源规划提供科学依据。

关键词: 风能, 太阳能, 风光资源气候风险, 时空分布, 中国

Abstract: The proportion of renewable energy (represented by wind and solar energy) in the future energy structure of China should be substantially increased to achieve the goals of carbon peak and carbon neutrality. However, wind and solar power generation is largely affected by local climate conditions, with intermittent and volatile characteristics. In recent years, extreme weather and climate events have become more frequent and stronger and have shown concurrency, which seriously restricts the effective utilization of wind and solar resources. Therefore, the research on climate risks of wind and solar resources is of great theoretical and practical significance for improving the utilization of wind and solar resources and reducing the risks of renewable energy. This study quantitatively analyzes the spatial and temporal characteristics of scarce wind and light scenarios in China on the basis of a high-resolution database of wind and solar resources from 2007 to 2014. The analysis is based on aspects such as the degree, range, duration, and frequency of inefficient wind and solar output. The results show that the current distribution of scarce wind and light scenarios demonstrates prominent seasonal and regional differences. The climate risk of solar and wind resources mainly occurs in autumn and winter. The frequent scarce wind and light scenarios mainly occur in Xinjiang, Sichuan, and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River. This study could provide a scientific basis for future site selection of wind and solar power stations and regional renewable energy planning in China.

Key words: wind energy, solar energy, climate risk of solar and wind resources, spatial and temporal distribution, China

孙景博, 王阳, 杨晓帆, 陆峥, 何源, 巢清尘. 中国风光资源气候风险时空变化特征分析[J]. 中国电力, 2023, 56(5): 1-10.

SUN Jingbo, WANG Yang, YANG Xiaofan, LU Zheng, HE Yuan, CHAO Qingchen. Analysis of Spatial and Temporal Variation Character of Climate Risks of Wind and Solar Resources in China[J]. Electric Power, 2023, 56(5): 1-10.

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中国风光资源气候风险时空变化特征分析

Analysis of Spatial and Temporal Variation Character of Climate Risks of Wind and Solar Resources in China

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中国风光资源气候风险时空变化特征分析

Analysis of Spatial and Temporal Variation Character of Climate Risks of Wind and Solar Resources in China

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