基于技术分析的主要高耗能产品单耗预测方法及展望

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202102003

中国电力 ›› 2023, Vol. 56 ›› Issue (1): 166-172.DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202102003

• 技术经济 • 上一篇

基于技术分析的主要高耗能产品单耗预测方法及展望

刘青¹, 张成龙¹, 熊华文², 翁玉艳¹, 张桦³, 王红⁴, 谭清坤¹, 姚力¹

1. 国网能源研究院有限公司，北京 102209;
2. 国家发展和改革委员会能源研究所，北京 100038;
3. 国家电网有限公司，北京 100031;
4. 华北电力大学控制与计算机工程学院，北京 102206

收稿日期:2021-02-01 修回日期:2022-11-18 出版日期:2023-01-28 发布日期:2023-01-14
作者简介:刘青(1994-),男,通信作者,硕士,中级工程师,从事能源电力供需分析预测、节能节电与电能替代研究,E-mail:liuqing@sgeri.sgcc.com.cn
基金资助:
国家电网有限公司科技项目（5100-202155294A-0-0-00）。

Prediction Method and Prospect of Unit Consumption of Main High Energy Consuming Products Based on Technical Analysis

LIU Qing¹, ZHANG Chenglong¹, XIONG Huawen², WENG Yuyan¹, ZHANG Hua³, WANG Hong⁴, TAN Qingkun¹, YAO Li¹

1. State Grid Energy Research Institute Co., Ltd., Beijing 102209, China;
2. Energy Research Institute of National Development and Reform Commission, Beijing 100038, China;
3. State Grid Corporation of China, Beijing 100031, China;
4. School of Control and Computer Engineering, North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China

Received:2021-02-01 Revised:2022-11-18 Online:2023-01-28 Published:2023-01-14
Supported by:
This work is supported by the Science and Technology Project of SGCC (No.5100-202155294A-0-0-00).

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 高耗能行业是重要的终端能源消费部门，研究该行业主要产品单耗变化趋势，对于把握中国能源消费走势意义重大。考虑节能技术推广、产能更新换代等影响，建立基于技术分析的产品单耗模型，预测“十四五”期间高耗能行业主要产品单耗。结果表明，2025年，高耗能行业主要产品中，水泥、钢铁、电解铝、氧化铝、精炼铜、合成氨、烧碱、电石单耗（标煤）分别为49、239、1609、99、36、565、327、385 kg/t，较2020年分别下降7.0%、6.6%、2.1%、31.5%、16.3%、6.0%、5.0%、2.3%，其中产品单耗最高的是电解铝，下降幅度最大的是氧化铝。

关键词: 高耗能行业, 终端能源消费量, 产品单耗, 技术分析, 节能量

Abstract: High energy consuming industry is an important terminal energy consumption sector. Studying the change trend of unit consumption of main products in this industry is of great significance to grasp the trend of China's energy consumption. Considering the impact of energy-saving technology promotion and production capacity upgrading, a product unit consumption model based on technical analysis is established to predict the unit consumption of main products in high energy consuming industries during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. The results show that in 2025, the unit consumption of cement, steel, electrolytic aluminum, alumina, refined copper, synthetic ammonia, caustic soda and calcium carbide in the main products of high energy consuming industries will be 49, 239, 1609, 99, 36, 565, 327 and 385 kg standard coal / ton respectively, down 7.0%, 6.6%, 2.1%, 31.5%, 16.3%, 6.0%, 5.0% and 2.3% respectively compared with 2020, among which electrolytic aluminum has the highest unit consumption while alumina has the largest decline.

Key words: high energy consuming industry, terminal energy consumption, unit consumption of product, technical analysis, energy saving amount

刘青, 张成龙, 熊华文, 翁玉艳, 张桦, 王红, 谭清坤, 姚力. 基于技术分析的主要高耗能产品单耗预测方法及展望[J]. 中国电力, 2023, 56(1): 166-172.

LIU Qing, ZHANG Chenglong, XIONG Huawen, WENG Yuyan, ZHANG Hua, WANG Hong, TAN Qingkun, YAO Li. Prediction Method and Prospect of Unit Consumption of Main High Energy Consuming Products Based on Technical Analysis[J]. Electric Power, 2023, 56(1): 166-172.

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基于技术分析的主要高耗能产品单耗预测方法及展望

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