基于信息融合的配网线路雷害风险评估

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202306118

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

雷害严重影响配电线路的安全运行，引入敏感因子和易损性指标，提出一种基于信息融合的雷害风险评估方法。首先，从接地电阻、人口密度、杆塔高度、河网密度和坡向5个方面构建雷害风险指标评价体系；其次，引入信息融合的层次分析法，结合灰色、熵权和证据理论，建立雷害关联矩阵，进行综合评估；最后，对某配电线路进行案例分析。研究结果表明，对于雷害的整体趋势，所提方法评价结果与实际结果基本一致，验证了该指标体系的合理性。

关键词: 配电线路, 雷害风险, 信息融合, 熵权理论, 确信度

Abstract:

Lightning seriously affects the safe operation of distribution network lines. A lightning risk assessment method based on information fusion is thus proposed by introducing sensitive factors and vulnerability indexes. Firstly, a lightning risk assessment index system is constructed from five aspects including ground resistance, population density, tower height, river network density and slope direction. Secondly, by introducing the analytic hierarchy process of information fusion, a correlation matrix of lightning damage is established based on grey, entropy weight and evidence theory to carry out comprehensive evaluation. Finally, a case study of a distribution network line was conducted. The results show that the evaluation results of the proposed method are basically consistent with the actual results for overall trend of lightning risk, which validates the rationality of the index system.

Key words: distribution network line, lightning risk, information fusion, entropy weight theory, degree of certainty

裴梓翔, 舒恺, 周勋甜, 范天成, 罗玉鹤, 刘玉婷. 基于信息融合的配网线路雷害风险评估[J]. 中国电力, 2024, 57(7): 125-131.

Zixiang PEI, Kai SHU, Xuntian ZHOU, Tiancheng FAN, Yuhe LUO, Yuting LIU. Lightning Risk Assessment of Distribution Network Line Based on Information Fusion[J]. Electric Power, 2024, 57(7): 125-131.

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链接本文: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202306118

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/Y2024/V57/I7/125

图/表 12

表 1 配网线路雷害风险等级

Table 1 Lightning risk level for distribution network lines

G₁	风险等级	程度等级
$(1.5{G_{{\text{av}}}},+\infty)$	I	非常高
$({G_{{\text{av}}}} , 1.5{G_{{\text{av}}}}]$	Ⅱ	较高
$(0.75{G_{{\text{av}}}} , {G_{{\text{av}}}}]$	Ⅲ	一般
$(0.5{G_{{\text{av}}}} , 0.75{G_{{\text{av}}}}]$	Ⅳ	较低
$(-\infty, 0.5{G_{{\text{av}}}}]$	Ⅴ	非常低

图 1 配网线路风险评估流程

Fig.1 Risk assessment process of distribution network lines

表 2 雷击影响因子的关联矩阵

Table 2 Correlation matrix of lightning impact factors

影响因子	U₁	U₂	U₃	U₄	U₅
U₁	1	2	3	5	9
U₂	1/2	1	2	3	7
U₃	1/3	1/3	1	2	5
U₄	1/5	1/2	1/2	1	3
U₅	1/9	1/7	1/5	1/3	1

图 2 不同河网密度的雷害发生概率

Fig.2 Probability of lightning risk under different river network densities

图 3 不同人口密度雷害发生概率

Fig.3 Probability of lightning risk under different population densities

图 4 不同坡向的雷害发生概率

Fig.4 Probability of lightning risk under different slope directions

图 5 不同接地电阻的雷害发生概率

Fig.5 Probability of lightning risk under different ground resistance

图 6 不同杆塔高度的雷害发生概率

Fig.6 Probability of lightning risk under different tower heights

表 3 信息层下的隶属度分配

Table 3 Membership assignment under information layer

信息层	权重	Z₁	Z₂	Z₃	Z₄	Z₅	$\varTheta $
U₁	0.31	0.06	0.17	0.41	0.31	0.05	0.03
U₂	0.27	0.04	0.18	0.27	0.39	0.12	0.10
U₃	0.21	0.03	0.24	0.51	0.18	0.04	0.05
U₄	0.15	0.07	0.19	0.29	0.44	0.01	0.04
U₅	0.06	0.06	0.47	0.21	0.18	0.08	0.09

表 4 D-S组合下的融合结果

Table 4 Fusion results under D-S combination

信息层	Z₁	Z₂	Z₃	Z₄	Z₅	$\varTheta $
U₁₂	0.03	0.14	0.38	0.34	0.08	0.03
U₁₂₃	0.02	0.21	0.44	0.25	0.07	0.01
U₁₂₃₄	0.04	0.20	0.34	0.36	0.06	0
U₁₂₃₄₅	0.05	0.23	0.32	0.34	0.06	0

表 5 配网线路雷害风险评估结果

Table 5 Lightning risk assessment result of distribution network line

评价对象	可能性权重值					不确定性	评估结果
评价对象	非常高	较高	一般	较低	非常低	不确定性	评估结果
配网线路雷害	0.05	0.23	0.32	0.34	0.06	0	较低

表 6 2021年雷害风险评估结果

Table 6 Assessment results of lightning risk for 2021

风险等级	预测数量	实际数量
I	27	30
Ⅱ	49	45
Ⅲ	67	64
Ⅳ	101	98
Ⅴ	105	103

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