考虑氢能需求的甘肃省电力行业低碳转型路径研究

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202211012

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

氢能是清洁能源发展的重要方向，在电力、工业、交通、建筑供热等领域有着广泛的应用前景，氢能的综合利用对于电力行业的低碳转型至关重要。基于支持向量回归（SVR）模型对各领域的氢能需求进行预测，利用新能源电制氢能量转换关系等效替代为电负荷；考虑不确定性对供电和氢能设备投资成本进行预测；以预测数据、初始装机情况与减排目标为输入，各类电源发展规模、装机占比、碳排放量等为输出，建立规划模型。以甘肃省为例，分析不同场景下电源结构和碳排放量变化情况，以及氢能在电力行业低碳转型过程中的影响，为电力行业的低碳转型路径规划提供参考。

关键词: 氢能, 低碳转型, 需求预测, 规划模型

Abstract:

Hydrogen energy is an important direction in the development of clean energy and has a wide range of application prospects in the fields of power, industry, transportation and building heating, etc. The comprehensive utilization of hydrogen energy is crucial to the low-carbon transformation of the power industry. This paper forecasts the hydrogen energy demand in various fields based on the SVR model and various social data, and uses the energy conversion relationship between power consumption and hydrogen production to equivalently replace the hydrogen energy, while forecasting the investment cost of various types of equipment; the planning model is established with the forecast data, the initial installation situation and carbon emission target as inputs, and the development scale of various power sources, the proportion of installed power and carbon emission as outputs; taking Gansu Province as an example, the planning model is analysed. The impact of hydrogen energy participation in the low-carbon transformation of the power industry is explored, providing reference for the planning of the low-carbon transformation path of the power industry in Gansu Province.

Key words: hydrogen energy, low-carbon transition, demand prediction, planning model

张学强, 董龙, 王栋. 考虑氢能需求的甘肃省电力行业低碳转型路径研究[J]. 中国电力, 2023, 56(12): 262-272.

Xueqiang ZHANG, Long DONG, Dong WANG. Study on Low-Carbon Transition Path of Power Industry in Gansu Province Considering Hydrogen Energy Demand[J]. Electric Power, 2023, 56(12): 262-272.

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链接本文: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202211012

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/Y2023/V56/I12/262

图/表 16

图 1 氢能产-输-储-用综合利用模式

Fig.1 Comprehensive utilization of hydrogen energy

图 2 SVR算法流程

Fig.2 Flow chart of SVR algorithm

图 3 电源单位投资成本

Fig.3 Unit investment cost of power supply

图 4 氢能设备投资成本

Fig.4 Hydrogen energy equipment investment cost

表 1 各领域氢负荷历史数据

Table 1 Historical data of hydrogen load in diffirent areas

年份	合成甲醇/t	合成氨/t	原油加工量/万t	公交车/辆	城市天然气供气总量/亿m³
2007	57687.00	777460.5	—	—	—
2008	62062.00	658704.5	—	—	—
2009	54008.30	761022.8	—	—	—
2010	50514.72	763833.1	1383.5	4382	7.29
2011	364619.90	733376.0	1613.5	4965	8.81
2012	564232.00	431337.9	1520.5	5214	11.21
2013	506165.30	700655.1	1554.2	5359	13.40
2014	727115.90	575393.0	1446.4	5488	15.92
2015	—	—	1424.3	5275	16.19
2016	—	—	1341.5	5233	16.86
2017	—	—	1440.8	5850	20.37
2018	—	—	1440.0	6519	23.51
2019	—	—	1465.6	7314	25.20
2020	—	—	1467.5	6408	25.44

图 5 用氢量预测曲线

Fig.5 Prediction curve of annual hydrogen quantity

图 6 规划区域氢等效电负荷

Fig.6 The equivalent electric load of hydrogen in the planning region

图 7 预测电负荷

Fig.7 The predicted electricity load

图 8 场景1规划结果

Fig.8 Planning results in scenario 1

图 9 场景1电力与工业煤制氢碳排放量

Fig.9 Carbon emissions from electricity and industrial coal to hydrogen in scenario 1

图 10 场景2规划结果

Fig.10 Planning results in scenario 2

图 11 场景2碳排放

Fig.11 Carbon emission in scenario 2

图 12 场景3规划结果

Fig.12 Planning results in scenario 3

图 13 场景3碳排放

Fig.13 Carbon emission in scenario 3

图 14 场景2、3下氢能设备容量变化情况

Fig.14 Change in capacity of hydrogen energy equipment under scenarios 2 and 3

表 2 各场景下的成本和碳减排量

Table 2 Cost and carbon emission

场景	投资成本/元	运维成本/元	综合成本/元	电力总碳排量/t	2020—2050年发电碳排减少量/t	新能源制氢减排总量/t
1	1.4296×10¹⁰	8.1523×10⁸	1.5111×10¹⁰	1.7909×10⁹	2.41488×10⁷	—
2	1.5083×10¹⁰	8.3701×10⁸	1.5921×10¹⁰	1.7909×10⁹	2.41488×10⁷	7.2927×10⁷
3	1.4680×10¹⁰	8.2015×10⁸	1.5499×10¹⁰	1.7349×10⁹	2.8421×10⁷	7.2927×10⁷

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