大电网可靠性评估的随机响应面法

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.2014.8.1.6

中国电力 ›› 2014, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (8): 1-7.DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.2014.8.1.6

• 电网—状态估计与监测专栏 • 下一篇

大电网可靠性评估的随机响应面法

宿晓岚^{1, 2}, 赵渊², 钟家华¹, 杨高峰¹, 张雅维²

1. 重庆市电力公司市区供电分公司,重庆 400013;
2. 输配电装备及系统安全与新技术国家重点实验室（重庆大学）,重庆 400044

收稿日期:2014-05-08 出版日期:2014-08-18 发布日期:2015-12-10
作者简介:宿晓岚（1969—）,四川彭山人,女,高级工程师,从事电力系统规划研究。E-mail: 591191976@qq.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金（50977094）; 重庆市自然科学基金（CSTC,2011BB6047）; 输配电装备及系统安全与新技术国家重点实验室自主研究项目（2007 DA10512711208）; 中央高校基本科研业务费科研专项资助（CDJZR11150012）

Reliability Evaluation for Bulk Power Systems by Using Stochastic Response Surface Method

SU Xiao-lan^{1, 2}, ZHAO Yuan², ZHONG Jia-hua¹, YANG Gao-feng¹, ZHANG Ya-wei²

1. Urban Power Supply Branch Company of Chongqing Electric Power Corporation, Chongqing 400013, China;
2. State Key Laboratory of Power Transmission Equipment & System Security and New Technology, Chongqing 400044, China

Received:2014-05-08 Online:2014-08-18 Published:2015-12-10
Supported by:
This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(50977094), Natural Science Foundation of Chongqing City (CSTC, 2011BB6047), State Key Laboratory of Power Transmission Equipment & System Security and New Technology, Independent Research Project (2007 DA10512711208) and Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (CDJZR11150012)

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为定量分析元件可靠性参数的不确定性对大电网可靠性评估的影响,采用计及元件故障率和平均修复时间的随机性引入随机响应面法,通过少量计算,建立了大电网可靠性指标的函数表达式,继而得到指标的期望和方差;为提高可靠性参数非正态假设下的计算收敛速度,提出了基于广义混沌多项式的随机响应面法;为验证所提方法的正确性和有效性,采用RBTS测试系统进行了可靠性评估分析。测试结果表明：基于上述函数关系,可量化分析可靠性参数的不确定性对大电网可靠性评估的影响,易辨识出系统可靠性的薄弱参数,可为规划和运行人员进行可靠性改善研究时提供参考。

关键词: 大电网, 可靠性评估, 可靠性指标, 广义混沌多项式, 随机响应面法, 参数不确定性, 薄弱环节辨识

Abstract: In order to quantify the effect of the uncertainty of component reliability parameters in reliability assessment of bulk power systems, a method called stochastic response surface method and with the considerations of the factors of the stochastic nature of fault rate and MTTR, was proposed, which can rapidly induce polynomial expressions for risk indices as well as formulas and calculate the relevant expectation value and its variance. Moreover, to enhance the velocity of convergence, the generalized polynomial chaos expansions were developed in case that the component parameters don’t follow the normal distribution. By taking the advantages of the proposed method, the vulnerable points in a power system can be identified, which can provide guides for system planners and operators. Finally, the reliability of the RBTS test system was evaluated and analyzed and the simulation results verify the validity of evaluation method mentioned above.

Key words: large power grid, reliability evaluation, reliability index, generalized polynomial chaos, stochastic response surface method, parameter uncertainty, weak point identification

中图分类号:

TM721

宿晓岚, 赵渊, 钟家华, 杨高峰, 张雅维. 大电网可靠性评估的随机响应面法[J]. 中国电力, 2014, 47(8): 1-7.

SU Xiao-lan, ZHAO Yuan, ZHONG Jia-hua, YANG Gao-feng, ZHANG Ya-wei. Reliability Evaluation for Bulk Power Systems by Using Stochastic Response Surface Method[J]. Electric Power, 2014, 47(8): 1-7.

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大电网可靠性评估的随机响应面法

Reliability Evaluation for Bulk Power Systems by Using Stochastic Response Surface Method

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大电网可靠性评估的随机响应面法

Reliability Evaluation for Bulk Power Systems by Using Stochastic Response Surface Method

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