考虑天气影响的配电信息物理系统可靠性评估

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.201912037

中国电力 ›› 2020, Vol. 53 ›› Issue (4): 59-68.DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.201912037

• 智能配电网的规划理论与实践专栏 • 上一篇下一篇

考虑天气影响的配电信息物理系统可靠性评估

吴英俊^1,2, 范婷婷², 徐昊², 倪明³

1. 河海大学能源与电气学院，江苏南京 211100;
2. 南京邮电大学电气工程系，江苏南京 210046;
3. 南瑞集团有限公司（国网电力科学研究院有限公司），江苏南京 211106

收稿日期:2019-12-08 修回日期:2020-02-13 发布日期:2020-04-05
作者简介:吴英俊(1985-),男,通信作者,博士,副教授,从事电力信息物理系统、主动配电网与微网研究,E-mail:yingjunwu@hotmail.com;范婷婷(1994-),女,硕士研究生,从事配电网可靠性研究,E-mail:fantasticftt@126.com;徐昊(1996-),男,硕士研究生,从事电力信息物理系统研究,E-mail:xuhao_6592@163.com;倪明(1969-),男,博士,高级工程师(研究员级),从事电力信息物理系统、电力系统安全稳定控制等研究,E-mail:ni-ming@sgepri.sgcc.com.cn
基金资助:
国家电网公司总部科技项目（针对网络攻击的电网信息物理系统协同运行态势感知与主动防御方法研究）；国家自然科学基金资助项目（51807051）

Reliability Evaluation of Cyber-physical Distribution Network Considering the Impact of Weather Conditions

WU Yingjun^1,2, FAN Tingting², XU Hao², NI Ming³

1. The College of Energy and Electrical Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 211100, China;
2. The College of Electrical Engineering, Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Nanjing 210046, China;
3. NARI Group Corporation (State Grid Electric Power Research Institute), Nanjing 211106, China

Received:2019-12-08 Revised:2020-02-13 Published:2020-04-05
Supported by:
This work is supported by Science and Technology Project of SGCC(Research on Cooperative Situation Awareness and Active Defense Method of Cyber Physical Power System for Cyber Attack), National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.51807051)

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 电力与通信深度融合是配电网发展的趋势，而天气又是影响配电网可靠性最主要的要素之一，研究评估考虑天气影响的配电信息物理系统可靠性很有必要。首先，选取对电力元件故障和通信元件故障影响最大的天气要素，并对天气要素进行区间划分，构建适合分析电力元件故障和通信元件故障的天气状态模型；其次，结合配电网历史故障数据和历史天气数据，构建以天气状态为变量的电力元件故障概率模型和通信元件故障概率模型；接着，针对通信元件故障使得监视和控制失效而造成的后果评估，给出配电网失负荷量化分析方法；然后，综合考虑电力元件和通信元件故障，提出基于蒙特卡洛方法的配电网信息物理系统可靠性评方法；最后，在改进的IEEE 33节点测试系统进行仿真测试，验证了所提算法的可行性和有效性。

关键词: 电网信息物理系统, 天气状态模型, 电力元件, 监视元件, 控制元件, 可靠性评估

Abstract: The deep integration of power and communication is the development trend of distribution network, and weather is one of the most important factors affecting the reliability of the distribution network. Therefore, it is necessary to consider the influence of weather in studying and evaluating the reliability of the distribution cyber-physical system. First, the weather factors that have the greatest impact on power component faults and communication component faults are selected, and divided into intervals to build a weather state model suitable for analyzing power component faults and communication component faults. Second, based on the historical fault data and historical weather data, the power component failure probability model and communication component failure probability model are established with weather conditions as variables. Third, for the consequence evaluation of monitoring and control failure caused by communication component faults, a load loss quantification analysis method is given. And then, considering the faults of power components and communication components, a reliability assessment method is proposed for the distribution cyber-physical system based on Monte Carlo method. Finally, simulations were performed on the improved IEEE 33-node test system, which has verified the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.

Key words: power grid cyber physical system, weather state model, power component, monitoring component, control component, reliability evaluation

吴英俊, 范婷婷, 徐昊, 倪明. 考虑天气影响的配电信息物理系统可靠性评估[J]. 中国电力, 2020, 53(4): 59-68.

WU Yingjun, FAN Tingting, XU Hao, NI Ming. Reliability Evaluation of Cyber-physical Distribution Network Considering the Impact of Weather Conditions[J]. Electric Power, 2020, 53(4): 59-68.

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