Reliability Evaluation for Bulk Power Systems by Using Stochastic Response Surface Method

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.2014.8.1.6

Abstract

Abstract: In order to quantify the effect of the uncertainty of component reliability parameters in reliability assessment of bulk power systems, a method called stochastic response surface method and with the considerations of the factors of the stochastic nature of fault rate and MTTR, was proposed, which can rapidly induce polynomial expressions for risk indices as well as formulas and calculate the relevant expectation value and its variance. Moreover, to enhance the velocity of convergence, the generalized polynomial chaos expansions were developed in case that the component parameters don’t follow the normal distribution. By taking the advantages of the proposed method, the vulnerable points in a power system can be identified, which can provide guides for system planners and operators. Finally, the reliability of the RBTS test system was evaluated and analyzed and the simulation results verify the validity of evaluation method mentioned above.

Key words: large power grid, reliability evaluation, reliability index, generalized polynomial chaos, stochastic response surface method, parameter uncertainty, weak point identification

CLC Number:

TM721

SU Xiao-lan, ZHAO Yuan, ZHONG Jia-hua, YANG Gao-feng, ZHANG Ya-wei. Reliability Evaluation for Bulk Power Systems by Using Stochastic Response Surface Method[J]. Electric Power, 2014, 47(8): 1-7.

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URL: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.2014.8.1.6

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/EN/Y2014/V47/I8/1

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