配电网设备资产运检成本影响因素评价分析

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202302061

中国电力 ›› 2023, Vol. 56 ›› Issue (7): 216-227.DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202302061

配电网设备资产运检成本影响因素评价分析

罗超月岭¹, 李智威², 徐祯雨¹, 唐学军², 李黎¹, 方钊³

1. 华中科技大学电气与电子工程学院，湖北武汉 430070;
2. 国网湖北省电力有限公司经济技术研究院，湖北武汉 430200;
3. 国网湖北省电力有限公司，湖北武汉 430074

收稿日期:2023-02-17 修回日期:2023-04-17 发布日期:2023-07-28
作者简介:罗超月岭(1999-),男,硕士研究生,从事能源经济及电力市场研究,E-mail:861765996@qq.com;李智威(1987-),男,通信作者,博士,高级工程师,从事电力行业技术经济分析研究,E-mail:2898704992@qq.com;徐祯雨(1999-),男,硕士研究生,从事能源经济研究,E-mail:774364829@qq.com;唐学军(1965-),男,硕士,高级经济师,从事能源经济及电力市场研究,E-mail:2898704992@qq.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助项目（51777082）；国家电网有限公司管理咨询项目（5400-202056131A-0-0-00）。

Evaluation and Analysis of Factors Affecting Operation and Inspection Cost of Distribution Network Equipment Assets

LUO Chaoyueling¹, LI Zhiwei², XU Zhenyu¹, TANG Xuejun², LI Li¹, FANG Zhao³

1. College of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430070, China;
2. State Grid Hubei Electric Power Company Economic and Technical Research Institute, Wuhan 430200, China;
3. State Grid Hubei Electric Power Co., Ltd., Wuhan 430074, China

Received:2023-02-17 Revised:2023-04-17 Published:2023-07-28
Supported by:
This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.51777082) and Management Consultation Project of SGCC (No.5400-202056131A-0-0-00).

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 目前，配电网运维检修成本结构模糊、管理相对粗放，易造成地区配置失衡，设备资产运维检修的薄弱环节无法得到合理加强。为此，提出了一种基于贝叶斯平均模型（Bayes model averaging，BMA）-改进灰色关联法的配电网设备资产运检成本影响因素评价分析方法，从经济因素、设备因素、环境因素和网络结构等方面解析影响运检成本的潜在影响因素，基于BMA方法进行关键变量筛选，并采用改进反熵-灰色关联分析法对影响因素的关联度进行量化分析，找到影响配电网运检成本的薄弱环节。以实际供电区域为例，筛选出影响配电网设备资产运检成本的9项关键因素，得到该供电区域的综合评分和建设薄弱项，并结合区域发展的具体情况，验证了该方法的有效性和合理性。

关键词: 运检成本优化, 多因素面板回归, 改进灰色关联分析, 贝叶斯平均模型, 组合赋权

Abstract: At present, the cost structure of distribution network operation and maintenance is vague, and the management is relatively extensive, which can easily lead to regional allocation imbalance, and the weakness of equipment asset operation and maintenance cannot be reasonably strengthened. A method for evaluating and analyzing the factors affecting the operation and inspection cost is proposed based on the BMA improved grey correlation method. Potential influencing factors are analyzed from the aspects of economic factors, equipment factors, environmental factors, and network structure. Key variables are selected based on the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) method, and the improved anti entropy grey correlation analysis method is used to quantitatively analyze the correlation degree of influencing factors, and identify the weakness that affects the operation and inspection costs. Nine key factors affecting the operation and inspection cost of actual distribution network equipment assets are selected in actual power supply area, and the comprehensive score and weak construction items are obtained. The effectiveness and rationality of this method are verified combined with the specific situation of regional development finally.

Key words: optimization of transportation and inspection costs, multivariate panel regression, improved grey relational analysis, Bayesian average model, combination weighting

罗超月岭, 李智威, 徐祯雨, 唐学军, 李黎, 方钊. 配电网设备资产运检成本影响因素评价分析[J]. 中国电力, 2023, 56(7): 216-227.

LUO Chaoyueling, LI Zhiwei, XU Zhenyu, TANG Xuejun, LI Li, FANG Zhao. Evaluation and Analysis of Factors Affecting Operation and Inspection Cost of Distribution Network Equipment Assets[J]. Electric Power, 2023, 56(7): 216-227.

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配电网设备资产运检成本影响因素评价分析

Evaluation and Analysis of Factors Affecting Operation and Inspection Cost of Distribution Network Equipment Assets

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Evaluation and Analysis of Factors Affecting Operation and Inspection Cost of Distribution Network Equipment Assets

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