降雨滑坡灾害对输电杆塔故障的时空强在线预警

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.201912083

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 针对山地丘陵地区的输电线路所处环境复杂，降雨滑坡灾害可能导致输电杆塔故障从而影响电力系统的安全稳定运行的问题，提出一种降雨滑坡灾害下的输电杆塔故障预警方法，从滑坡风险区域、滑坡活动时间以及杆塔受损状况三个角度实现灾害全过程的量化在线预警。首先，利用GIS技术将降雨预报区域和电网区域进行叠置获得目标风险区域，提出基于网格化的滑坡灾害指数来确定易滑坡区域；其次，结合气象数据分析渗入土壤中的降雨量逐日变化情况，构建动态更新的累积有效降雨量模型，进而提出可用于预测滑坡活动时间的滑坡概率模型；最后，以坡体冲击能为致灾强度、与输电塔挠度限值对应的弯曲变形能为抗灾性能，从功-能角度得到反映易滑坡区域输电杆塔损毁程度的定量函数关系。算例结果表明，所提方法具有一定的可行性和合理性。

关键词: 降雨, 滑坡灾害, 预警, 故障概率, 致灾强度, 输电杆塔

Abstract: The environment around transmission lines in mountainous and hilly areas is complicated, and rainfall-induced landslide may cause transmission towers fault, which will influence the safe and stable operation of power systems. An early-warning method is proposed for transmission tower faults caused by rainfall-induced landslide disaster, which can achieve the quantitative online early-warning of the entire disaster process from such three aspects as landslide risk area, landslide activity time and damage condition of transmission tower. Firstly, the GIS technology is used to obtain the target risky area through overlaying the rainfall forecast area and power grid area, and the landslide-prone area is determined with grid-based landslide disaster index. Secondly, the daily variation of rainfall infiltrating into the soil is analyzed with combination of meteorological data, and a dynamic updating cumulative effective rainfall model is established, and then a landslide probability model is presented, which can predict landslide activity time. Finally, by taking the impact force of landslide as disaster-causing intensity and the bending deformation energy corresponding to the tower's limit deflection as anti-disaster performance, a quantitative function relationship is obtained, which can reflect the damage degree of transmission towers from work-energy aspect. Case study result has proved the feasibility and rationality of the proposed method.

Key words: rainfall, landslide disaster, early warning, fault probability, disaster-causing intensity, transmission tower

汤奕, 徐香香, 陈彬, 易弢. 降雨滑坡灾害对输电杆塔故障的时空强在线预警[J]. 中国电力, 2020, 53(1): 56-65.

TANG Yi, XU Xiangxiang, CHEN Bin, YI Tao. Space-Time-Intensity Online Early-Warning of Transmission Tower Faults by Caused Rainfall-Induced Landslides[J]. Electric Power, 2020, 53(1): 56-65.

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链接本文: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.201912083

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/Y2020/V53/I1/56

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