基于细分行业用能结构特征的“十四五”电能替代电量规划

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202005159

中国电力 ›› 2021, Vol. 54 ›› Issue (7): 36-45.DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202005159

• 能源安全新战略路径设计与规划推演关键技术专栏 • 上一篇下一篇

基于细分行业用能结构特征的“十四五”电能替代电量规划

唐伟, 徐朝, 单葆国, 张煜, 吴鹏, 贾跃龙, 张春成, 谭清坤

国网能源研究院有限公司，北京 102209

收稿日期:2020-05-21 修回日期:2020-10-24 出版日期:2021-07-05 发布日期:2021-07-12
作者简介:刘世栋(1971-),男,博士,高级工程师,从事电力物联网、软件定义网络、算力网络等领域研究,E-mail:2420493952@qq.com
基金资助:
国家电网公司科技项目(我国多区域能源供需综合分析预测模型体系研究及开发，52060018000T)

Electric Energy Substitution Planning for the “14th Five-Year Plan” Period Based on Characteristics of Energy Consumption Structure of Subdivided Industries

TANG Wei, XU Zhao, SHAN Baoguo, ZHANG Yu, WU Peng, JIA Yuelong, ZHANG Chuncheng, TAN Qingkun

State Grid Energy Research Institute Co., Ltd., Beijing 102209, China

Received:2020-05-21 Revised:2020-10-24 Online:2021-07-05 Published:2021-07-12
Supported by:
This work is supported by the Science and Technology Project of SGCC (Research and Development of Comprehensive Analysis and Forecasting Model System for Multi-regional Energy Supply and Demand in China, No.52060018000T)

摘要/Abstract

摘要： “电能替代”战略的实施，推动了能源发展方式的转变，对中国未来能源高质量发展起到了至关重要的作用。首先对中国终端能源消费及能源供应情况进行分析，梳理了电能替代发展现状，提出了基于行业用能特征的电能替代基准年理论潜力测算模型。其次，耦合规划期政策、技术等因素，提出了“十四五”期间电能替代潜力测算方法。再次，基于潜力测算提出“十四五”期间替代电量规划方法。最后预判电能替代发展趋势。依托该模型方法，预判“十四五”期间国网经营区电能替代潜力超1万亿kW·h，替代规划电量约5000亿kW·h。研究可为政府部门出台相关政策、电网企业科学开展电能替代工作提供支撑。

关键词: 终端用能, 电能替代, “十四五”规划, 潜力分析

Abstract: The implementation of "electric energy substitution" strategy has pushed forward the transformation of energy development mode and will play a crucial role in the future high-quality development of China's energy sector. Firstly, we investigate the existing situation of China's terminal energy consumption and energy supply and the development status quo of electric energy substitution. On this basis, a theoretical potential calculation model of electric energy substitution is proposed based on the characteristics of industrial energy consumption. Secondly, considering the policy, technology and other factors in the planning period, a calculation method of electric energy substitution potential is designed for the“14th Five-Year Plan”period. Thirdly, based on the potential calculation, a planning method of electric energy substitution is proposed for the“14th Five-Year Plan”period. Finally, the development prospect of electric energy substitution is forecasted. Based on the proposed model and methods, it is predicted that the electric energy substitution potential in the operation area of State Grid will exceed 100 billion kW·h, and the planned electric energy substitution will be around 500 billion kW·h during the“14th Five-Year Plan”period. This study can provide a theoretical support for government departments to formulate relevant policies and for the power grid enterprises to implement alternative energy work.

Key words: terminal energy, electric energy substitution, 14th five-year plan, potential analysis

唐伟, 徐朝, 单葆国, 张煜, 吴鹏, 贾跃龙, 张春成, 谭清坤. 基于细分行业用能结构特征的“十四五”电能替代电量规划[J]. 中国电力, 2021, 54(7): 36-45.

TANG Wei, XU Zhao, SHAN Baoguo, ZHANG Yu, WU Peng, JIA Yuelong, ZHANG Chuncheng, TAN Qingkun. Electric Energy Substitution Planning for the “14th Five-Year Plan” Period Based on Characteristics of Energy Consumption Structure of Subdivided Industries[J]. Electric Power, 2021, 54(7): 36-45.

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基于细分行业用能结构特征的“十四五”电能替代电量规划

Electric Energy Substitution Planning for the “14th Five-Year Plan” Period Based on Characteristics of Energy Consumption Structure of Subdivided Industries

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基于细分行业用能结构特征的“十四五”电能替代电量规划

Electric Energy Substitution Planning for the “14th Five-Year Plan” Period Based on Characteristics of Energy Consumption Structure of Subdivided Industries

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