绿色电力证书市场下中国各类电源规模及发电成本演化发展

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.201706175

中国电力 ›› 2019, Vol. 52 ›› Issue (7): 168-176.DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.201706175

绿色电力证书市场下中国各类电源规模及发电成本演化发展

杜振东¹, 徐尔丰², 张笑弟³, 刘敦楠², 沈舒仪⁴

1. 浙江华云电力工程设计咨询有限公司, 浙江杭州 310014;
2. 华北电力大学, 北京 102206;
3. 国网浙江省电力有限公司, 浙江杭州 310007;
4. 国网浙江省电力有限公司经济技术研究院, 浙江杭州 310008

收稿日期:2017-06-28 修回日期:2019-04-20 出版日期:2019-07-05 发布日期:2019-07-13
作者简介:杜振东(1971-),男,高级工程师(教授级),从事电网规划、工程设计管理研究,E-mail:hzdzd@126.com
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金资助项目（71401055），国网浙江省电力有限公司科技项目（SGZJJY00SJJS1600031）。

Research on Evolution and Development of Power Generation Scale and Cost under Tradable Green Certificates Market in China

DU Zhendong¹, XU Erfeng², ZHANG Xiaodi³, LIU Dunnan², SHEN Shuyi⁴

1. Zhejiang Huayun Electric Power Engineering Design Consulting Company, Hangzhou 310014, China;
2. North China Electric Power University, Beijing 102206, China;
3. State Grid Zhejiang Electricity Power Company, Hangzhou 310007, China;
4. State Grid Zhejiang Economic Research Institute, Hangzhou 310008, China

Received:2017-06-28 Revised:2019-04-20 Online:2019-07-05 Published:2019-07-13
Supported by:
This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.71401055) and State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Company Project (No.SGZJJY00SJJS1600031).

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 绿色电力证书市场是解决当前可再生能源成本高昂，电价附加补贴资金缺口大、来源单一、时间周期长等问题的有效措施之一。为完善可再生能源补贴机制，促进清洁能源消纳利用，对绿色电力证书市场下中国各类电源规模及发电成本演化发展进行研究。运用系统动力学，构建绿色电力证书市场的经济系统分析模型并基于Vensim软件进行仿真模拟，对绿色电力证书市场下各类电源装机容量、发电量、单位综合成本的演化趋势及关键因素的敏感性进行分析。结果表明通过合理设置可再生能源配额比例和绿色电力证书有效期，绿色电力证书不仅能够减少补贴资金并提高补贴效率，而且将为可再生能源提供全新的投资回报模式，激励其投资发展，有效促进能源供给侧结构优化。

关键词: 可再生能源配额, 绿色电力证书市场, 新一代电力系统, 系统动力学, 电源结构

Abstract: Tradable green certificates market is an effective measure to solve the problems of high cost of renewable energy and large funding gap, single funding source and long time period of price subsidy. In order to improve subsidy mechanism of renewable energy and promote clean energy utilization, this paper has a deep research on evolution and development of power generation scale and cost under tradable green certificates market. Economic model of tradable green certificates market is established based on system dynamics and simulation is carried out based on Vensim. Meanwhile, evolution of installed capacity, power generation and unit comprehensive cost of various energy under tradable green certificates market and sensitivity of key factors are analyzed deeply. The results indicate that tradable green certificates market will not only reduce subsidy funds and improve efficiency of subsidies, but also provide a new investment return mode for renewable energy, encourage investment development and effectively promote energy supply side structure optimization with reasonable renewable portfolio standard ratio and tradable green certificates validity period.

Key words: renewable portfolio standard, tradable green certificates, new power system, system dynamics, energy structure

中图分类号:

TM721

杜振东, 徐尔丰, 张笑弟, 刘敦楠, 沈舒仪. 绿色电力证书市场下中国各类电源规模及发电成本演化发展[J]. 中国电力, 2019, 52(7): 168-176.

DU Zhendong, XU Erfeng, ZHANG Xiaodi, LIU Dunnan, SHEN Shuyi. Research on Evolution and Development of Power Generation Scale and Cost under Tradable Green Certificates Market in China[J]. Electric Power, 2019, 52(7): 168-176.

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链接本文: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.201706175

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/Y2019/V52/I7/168

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绿色电力证书市场下中国各类电源规模及发电成本演化发展

Research on Evolution and Development of Power Generation Scale and Cost under Tradable Green Certificates Market in China

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绿色电力证书市场下中国各类电源规模及发电成本演化发展

Research on Evolution and Development of Power Generation Scale and Cost under Tradable Green Certificates Market in China

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