近30年全球大停电事故发生的深层次原因分析及启示

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202009134

中国电力 ›› 2021, Vol. 54 ›› Issue (10): 204-210.DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202009134

近30年全球大停电事故发生的深层次原因分析及启示

胡源¹, 薛松¹, 张寒¹, 张桦², 冯昕欣¹, 唐程辉¹, 林毅³, 郑鹏⁴

1. 国网能源研究院有限公司，北京 102209;
2. 国家电网有限公司，北京 100031;
3. 国网福建省电力有限公司经济技术研究院，福建福州 350013;
4. 国网福建省电力有限公司，福建福州 350003

收稿日期:2020-09-28 修回日期:2021-05-16 出版日期:2021-10-05 发布日期:2021-10-16
作者简介:胡源(1988-),男,博士,工程师,从事电力市场化改革、电力系统规划等研究,E-mail:huyuan@sgeri.sgcc.com.cn
基金资助:
国家电网有限公司科技项目(售电市场竞争能力评估技术及分析模型研究，SGFJJY00GHJS1800020)

Cause Analysis and Enlightenment of Global Blackouts in the Past 30 Years

HU Yuan¹, XUE Song¹, ZHANG Han¹, ZHANG Hua², FENG Xinxin¹, TANG Chenghui¹, LIN Yi³, ZHENG Peng⁴

1. State Grid Energy Research Institute Co., Ltd., Beijing 102209, China;
2. State Grid Corporation of China, Beijing 100031, China;
3. Institute of Economic and Technology, State Grid Fujian Electric Power Co., Ltd., Fuzhou 350013, China;
4. State Grid Fujian Electric Power Co., Ltd., Fuzhou 350003, China

Received:2020-09-28 Revised:2021-05-16 Online:2021-10-05 Published:2021-10-16
Supported by:
This work is supported by the Science and Technology Project of SGCC (Research on Competitiveness Evaluation Technology and Analysis Model of Electricity Retail Market, No. SGFJJY00GHJS1800020)

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 2019年以来，委内瑞拉、阿根廷、美国、印尼、英国等多国相继发生多起大停电事故，电网安全成为各方关注的焦点与舆论热点。通过梳理近30年138件主要大停电事件，发现2008年后大停电进入高发期，主要经济体是大停电事故的“重灾区”。自然灾害原因占比56%，影响范围相对明确可控；电力管理体制原因占31%，易与其他诱发因素伴发，具有全局性、系统性影响，可能危害到整个国家和地区的能源安全；意外或人为事故原因占10%；网络攻击成为新兴原因占3%，具有隐蔽性、复杂性强、防御难度大、物理伤害大等特点。深入剖析4类大停电事故发生的原因，根据中国国情和网情，提出防范中国大停电事故发生的措施和建议。

关键词: 大停电, 自然灾害, 管理体制, 人为事故, 网络攻击

Abstract: Since 2019, Venezuela, Argentina, the United States, Indonesia, the United Kingdom, and other countries have successively experienced blackouts, and power grid security has become the focus of public attention. This paper sorted out 138 major blackouts in the past 30 years and found that after 2008, blackouts entered a period of high incidence, and major economies become the “severely affected areas”. Specifically, natural disasters accounted for 56% of those blackouts, and their scope of impact was relatively clear and controllable. management factors accounted for 31%, and they were easily accompanied by other inducing factors. These global and systematic influences may endanger the energy security of the entire country and region. Emergencies or human error accidents accounted for 10%. In addition, cyber-attacks became an emerging cause, accounting for 3%, and it was concealed, complex, and difficult to defend, easily leading to huge physical damage. After an in-depth analysis of the causes for the four types of blackouts, this paper puts forward measures and suggestions to prevent blackouts in China in light of the current development of China’s power grid.

Key words: blackout, natural disaster, management system, human error accident, cyber attack

胡源, 薛松, 张寒, 张桦, 冯昕欣, 唐程辉, 林毅, 郑鹏. 近30年全球大停电事故发生的深层次原因分析及启示[J]. 中国电力, 2021, 54(10): 204-210.

HU Yuan, XUE Song, ZHANG Han, ZHANG Hua, FENG Xinxin, TANG Chenghui, LIN Yi, ZHENG Peng. Cause Analysis and Enlightenment of Global Blackouts in the Past 30 Years[J]. Electric Power, 2021, 54(10): 204-210.

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近30年全球大停电事故发生的深层次原因分析及启示

Cause Analysis and Enlightenment of Global Blackouts in the Past 30 Years

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近30年全球大停电事故发生的深层次原因分析及启示

Cause Analysis and Enlightenment of Global Blackouts in the Past 30 Years

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