考虑一致性风险价值的电网薄弱环节综合评估指标

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.2017.06.062.07

中国电力 ›› 2017, Vol. 50 ›› Issue (6): 62-68.DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.2017.06.062.07

考虑一致性风险价值的电网薄弱环节综合评估指标

栾翔¹, 于群¹, 贺庆², 曹娜¹, 易俊²

1. 山东科技大学电气与自动化工程学院,山东青岛 266590；
2. 中国电力科学研究院,北京 100192

收稿日期:2017-01-17 出版日期:2017-06-20 发布日期:2017-07-12
作者简介:栾翔（1991-）,男,山东龙口人,硕士研究生,从事电力系统安全分析、大电网安全防御研究。E-mail: ymyy.happy@163.com
基金资助:
山东省自然科学基金项目（ZR2016EEM13）

Integrated Assessment Index of Power Grid’s Weak Links by Considering Coherent Value at Risk

LUAN Xiang¹, YU Qun¹, HE Qing², CAO Na¹, YI Jun²

1. College of Electrical Engineering and Automation, Shandong University of Science and Technology, Qingdao 266590, China;
2. China Electric Power Research Institute, Beijing 100192, China

Received:2017-01-17 Online:2017-06-20 Published:2017-07-12
Supported by:
; This work is supported by the Natual Science Fund of Shandong Province (No. ZR2016 EEM13).

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 电网的薄弱环节直接影响电力系统的安全稳定运行。为了找出电力系统的薄弱环节,首先给出了一致性风险价值指标,利用IEEE39节点系统验证了该指标的有效性,并将指标与当前常用的自组织临界性指标和效用风险熵指标进行比较。在此基础上,通过指标标准化建立了模糊评判矩阵,利用客观熵权法和改进的层次分析法确立了综合评估指标。最后利用综合评估指标对湖南电网的薄弱环节进行了评估分析。电网实例分析结果表明该综合评估指标能够清晰地对电网的薄弱环节进行定位,评估结果可以作为电网规划和制定事故预防措施的参考。

关键词: 薄弱环节, 一致性风险价值, 自组织临界, 效用风险熵, 客观熵权法, 改进的层次分析法

Abstract: The weak links of power grid directly influence the safe operation of power system. In order to identify the weak links, the paper proposes the index of coherent value at risk(CVaR), whose reliability has been proved by the simulation results of IEEE 39-bus system. Furthermore, The CVaR is compared with the commonly used self-organized criticality and effect risk entropy. Based on the comparison results, the fuzzy evaluation matrix is established through the standardization index. Meanwhile, an integrated assessment index is obtained by use of the objective entropy method and improved analytical hierarchy process. Finally, the integrated assessment index is applied to analysis of the Hunan power grid’s weak links. The results show that the integrated assessment index can clearly locate the weak links of power grid, and the assessment result can provide an instruction for planning power networks and a reference for formulating preventive measures.

Key words: weak links, coherent value at risk, self-organized criticality, effect risk entropy, objective entropy method, improved analytical hierarchy process

中图分类号:

TM711

栾翔, 于群, 贺庆, 曹娜, 易俊. 考虑一致性风险价值的电网薄弱环节综合评估指标[J]. 中国电力, 2017, 50(6): 62-68.

LUAN Xiang, YU Qun, HE Qing, CAO Na, YI Jun. Integrated Assessment Index of Power Grid’s Weak Links by Considering Coherent Value at Risk[J]. Electric Power, 2017, 50(6): 62-68.

导出引用管理器 EndNote|Ris|BibTeX

链接本文: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.2017.06.062.07

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/Y2017/V50/I6/62

参考文献

[1] 周海明,刘广一,刘超群. 能源互联网技术框架研究[J]. 中国电力,2014,47（11）：140-144.
ZHOU Haiming, LIU Guangyi, LIU Chaoqun. Study on the energy internet technology framework [J]. Electric Power, 2014, 47(11): 140-144.
[2] 刘振亚. 全球能源互联网[M]. 北京：中国电力出版社,2015.
[3] 汤涌,卜广全,易俊. 印度“7·30”、“7·31”大停电事故分析及启示[J]. 中国电机工程学报,2012,32（25）：167-174.
TANG Yong, BU Guangquan, YI Jun. Analysis and lessons of the blackout in Indian power grid on July 30 and 31, 2012[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE, 2012, 32(25): 167-174.
[4] 方勇杰. 美国“9·8”大停电对连锁故障防控技术的启示[J]. 电力系统自动化,2012,36（15）：1-7.
FANG Yongjie. Lessons from September 8, 2011 Southwest America blackout for prevention and control of cascading outages[J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2012, 36(15): 1-7.
[5] 邹江峰,章显亮. 巴西“2009·11·10”和“2011·2·4”大停电事故及启示[J]. 中国电力,2011,44（11）：19-22.
ZOU Jiangfeng, ZHANG Xianliang. Summary and revelation of “2009·11·10” and “2011·2·4” blackouts in Brazil power system [J]. Electric Power, 2011, 44(11): 19-22.
[6] 丁明,过羿,张晶晶. 基于效用风险熵的复杂电网连锁故障脆弱性辨识[J]. 电力系统自动化,2013,37（17）：52-57.
DING Ming, GUO Yi, ZHANG Jingjing. Vulnerability identification for cascading failures of complex power grid based on effect risk entropy[J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2013, 37(17): 52-57.
[7] 丁明,过羿,张晶晶,等. 基于效用风险熵权模糊综合评判的复杂电网节点脆弱性评估[J]. 电工技术学报,2015,30（3）：214-223.
DING Ming, GUO Yi, ZHANG Jingjing, et al . Node vulnerability assessment for complex power grids based on effect risk entropy- weighted fuzzy comprehensive evaluation [J]. Transactions of China Electrotechnical Society, 2015, 30(3): 214-223.
[8] 于群,郭剑波. 中国电力系统停电事故自组织临界性的研究[J]. 电网技术,2006,30（6）：1-5.
YU Qun, GUO Jianbo. Study on self-organized criticality of power system blackouts in China[J]. Power System Technology, 2006, 30(6): 1-5.
[9] 梅生伟,薛安成,张雪敏. 电力系统自组织临界特性与大电网安全[M]. 北京：清华大学出版社,2009.
[10] 薛志英,周明,李庚银. 基于条件风险价值的电力系统短期充裕性决策[J]. 中国电机工程学报,2014,34（1）：96-104.
XUE Zhiying, ZHOU Ming, LI Gengyin. Short-term adequacy decision of power systems based on CVaR[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE, 2014, 34(1): 96-104.
[11] MACEIRA M E P, MARZANO L G B, PENNA D D J, et al . Application of CVaR risk aversion approach in the expansion and operation planning and for setting the spot price in the Brazilian hydrothermal interconnected system[J]. International Journal of Electrical Power & Energy Systems, 2015, 72: 126-135.
[12] 周辉,娄素华,吴耀武,等. 发电系统一致性运行可靠性指标及其优化模型[J]. 中国电机工程学报,2009,29（13）：27-79.
ZHOU Hui, LOU Suhua, WU Yaowu, et al . Coherent reliability index for generation system operation and its optimization model[J]. Proceedings of the CSEE, 2009, 29(13): 27-79.
[13] 于群,郭剑波. 自组织临界性与大停电事故预测[J]. 中国电力,2011,44（7）：21-25.
YU Qun, GUO Jianbo. Self-organized criticality and power system blackouts prediction [J]. Electric Power, 2011, 44(7): 21-25.
[14] 姜丹,钱玉美. 效用风险熵[J]. 中国科学技术大学学报,1994, 24（4）：461-469.
JIANG Dan, QIAN Yumei. Effect risk entropy[J]. Journal of University of Science and Technology of China, 1994, 24(4): 461-469.
[15] 穆永铮,鲁宗相,乔颖,等. 基于多算子层次分析模糊评价的电网安全与效益综合评价指标体系[J]. 电网技术,2015,39（1）：23-28.
MU Yongzheng, LU Zongxiang, QIAO Ying, et al . A comprehensive evaluation index system of power security and benefit based on multi-operator fuzzy hierarchy evaluation method[J]. Power System Technology, 2015, 39(1): 23-28.
[16] 杨小彬,李和明,尹忠东,等. 基于层次分析法的配电网能效指标体系[J]. 电力系统自动化,2013,37（21）：146-150.
YANG Xiaobin, LI Heming, YIN Zhongdong, et al . Energy efficiency index system for distribution network based on analytic hierarchy process[J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2013, 37(21): 146-150.
[17] 欧阳森,石怡理. 改进熵权法及其在电能质量评估中的应用[J]. 电力系统自动化,2013,37（21）：156-164.
OUYANG Sen, SHI Yili. A new improved entropy method and its application in power quality evaluation[J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2013, 37(21): 156-164.
[18] 廖瑞金,王谦,骆思佳,等. 基于模糊综合评判的电力变压器运行状态评估模型[J]. 电力系统自动化,2008,32（3）：70-75.
LIAO Ruijin, WANG Qian, LUO Sijia, et al . Condition assessment model for power transformer in service based on fuzzy synthetic evaluation[J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems,2008, 32(3): 70-75.
[19] 李勇,刘俊勇,刘晓宇,等. 基于潮流熵的电网连锁故障传播元件的脆弱性评估[J]. 电力系统自动化,2012,36（19）：11-16.
LI Yong, LIU Junyong, LIU Xiaoyu, et al . Vulnerability assessment in power grid cascading failure based on entropy of power flow[J]. Automation of Electric Power Systems, 2012, 36(19): 11-16.
[20] 王安斯,罗毅,涂光瑜,等. 基于事故链风险指标的输电脆弱度在线评估方法[J]. 中国电机工程学报,2010,30（25）：44-50.
WANG Ansi, LUO Yi, TU Guangyu, et al . Online transmission vulnerability assessment method based on the fault chain risk index [J]. Proceedings of the CSEE, 2010, 30(25): 44-50.

考虑一致性风险价值的电网薄弱环节综合评估指标

Integrated Assessment Index of Power Grid’s Weak Links by Considering Coherent Value at Risk

RichHTML

PDF (PC)

可视化

被引次数

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

参考文献

相关文章 3

编辑推荐

Metrics

[1]	于群, 王琪, 曹娜. 基于异质元胞自动机的电网停电机理仿真模型[J]. 中国电力, 2019, 52(12): 79-89.
[2]	于群，石良，郭剑波，贺庆，易俊. 基于相对值法的区域电网停电事故自组织特性分析[J]. 中国电力, 2016, 49(1): 91-95.
[3]	宿晓岚, 赵渊, 钟家华, 杨高峰, 张雅维. 大电网可靠性评估的随机响应面法[J]. 中国电力, 2014, 47(8): 1-7.

模态框（Modal）标题

考虑一致性风险价值的电网薄弱环节综合评估指标

Integrated Assessment Index of Power Grid’s Weak Links by Considering Coherent Value at Risk

RichHTML

PDF (PC)

可视化

被引次数

摘要/Abstract

引用本文

使用本文

参考文献

相关文章 3

编辑推荐

Metrics