新冠肺炎疫情对2020年电力消费影响及趋势研究

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202007074

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 电力消费是电网公司制定中长期电力规划、当年综合计划的重要边界条件，精准衡量2020年新冠肺炎疫情影响意义重大。构建疫情对电力消费的影响测算和预测模型，设计基准、风险情景，从总量、产业、行业、区域、省份等维度测算疫情及政策因素对电力消费影响程度，预测2020年电力消费增长趋势。结果表明：预计疫情及政策因素拉低2020年国家电网经营区用电量增速2.6~3.3个百分点。新冠肺炎疫情对电力消费产生了明显冲击，后期应紧密跟踪疫情影响、滚动调整预测结果。

关键词: 新冠肺炎疫情, 2020年, 电力消费, 情景分析, 趋势研究

Abstract: Electricity consumption is an important boundary condition for power grid companies to formulate medium- and long-term electric power planning and annual comprehensive plan. It is of great significance to accurately measure the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic. This paper constructed a calculation and prediction model for the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on electricity consumption, designed the benchmark and risk scenarios, calculated the impact of the epidemic and policy factors on electricity consumption from the dimensions of total electricity consumption, sector, industry, region and province, and predicted the growth trend of electricity consumption in 2020. The results show that the epidemic and policy factor is expected to reduce the growth rate of electricity consumption in 2020 by 2.6~3.3 percentage points in the business region operated by the State Grid Corporation of China (SGCC). The outbreak of the COVID-19 epidemic has had a significant impact on electricity consumption. The epidemic situation should be closely followed and rolling adjustment be made on the prediction results.

Key words: COVID-19 epidemic, 2020, electricity consumption, scenario analysis, trend study

刘青, 吴陈锐, 张春成, 吴姗姗, 王向, 汲国强. 新冠肺炎疫情对2020年电力消费影响及趋势研究[J]. 中国电力, 2020, 53(12): 248-257.

LIU Qing, WU Chenrui, ZHANG Chuncheng, WU Shanshan, WANG Xiang, JI Guoqiang. Impact of COVID-19 on China's Total Electricity Consumption in 2020 and Its Trend[J]. Electric Power, 2020, 53(12): 248-257.

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链接本文: https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202007074

https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/Y2020/V53/I12/248

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