湖南省电力消费强度下降原因解析

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.201701148

中国电力 ›› 2018, Vol. 51 ›› Issue (5): 172-178.DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.201701148

湖南省电力消费强度下降原因解析

陈火焱¹, 陈佳¹, 李凯², 谢欣涛¹

1. 国网湖南省电力公司经济技术研究院, 湖南长沙 410004;
2. 北京经世万方信息技术有限公司, 北京 100022

收稿日期:2017-02-04 修回日期:2018-02-06 出版日期:2018-05-05 发布日期:2018-05-07
作者简介:陈火焱(1964-),男,湖南衡阳人,硕士,高级工程师,从事电气工程研究,E-mail:chenhy5@hn.sgcc.com.cn;李凯(1987-),女,安徽阜阳人,硕士,工程师,从事经济能源研究工作,E-mail:kai.li@economyworld.net
基金资助:
国家电网公司科技项目（5216A018000M）。

Analysis on the Causes for the Decline of Electricity Consumption Intensity in Hunan Province

CHEN Huoyan¹, CHEN Jia¹, LI Kai², XIE Xintao¹

1. Electric Power Economic & Technology Institute of State Grid Hunan Electric Power Corporation, Changsha 410004, China;
2. Beijing JSWF Information Technology Co., Ltd., Beijing 100022, China

Received:2017-02-04 Revised:2018-02-06 Online:2018-05-05 Published:2018-05-07
Supported by:
This work is supported by the Science and Technology Project of SGCC (No.5216A018000M).

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为探索湖南省单位GDP电耗大幅下降的原因，通过改进产业结构合理性衡量指标的核算方法，合成湖南省类泰尔指数。在此基础上，构建广义可加模型，研究湖南省产业结构合理性、能源消费结构以及技术进步对电力消费强度的影响机制及影响强度。实证结果表明，能源消费结构对单位GDP电耗的影响是不显著的；而产业结构合理性对电力消费强度的影响虽然显著，但两者并不是单调关系；技术进步对湖南省单位增加值电耗的影响是显著且单调的。为验证上述研究结论的普适性，进一步对中部6省进行相关的研究，研究结论较为一致。

关键词: 单位GDP电耗, 产业结构合理性, 能源消费结构, 技术进步

Abstract: To explore the causes for the sharp decline of unit GDP power consumption in Hunan Province, the paper improves the accounting method for the industrial structure rationality evaluating indicators, and synthetizes the Theil index. A generalized additive model is established to study the impact mechanism and impact intensity of Hunan province’s industrial structure rationality, the energy consumption structure and technological progress on the intensity of the power consumption. The empirical results show that the rationality of industrial structure has significant and non-monotonic influence on the power consumption intensity, and the technological progress has significant and monotonic influence on the unit value-added power consumption, while the energy consumption structure has insignificant influence on the unit GDP power consumption. To verify the universality of the conclusions, the author further studies six provinces in central China, and all the results are consistent and strongly proves the correctness of the conclusions.

Key words: unit GDP power consumption, industrial structure rationality, energy consumption structure, technological progress

中图分类号:

F407.61

陈火焱, 陈佳, 李凯, 谢欣涛. 湖南省电力消费强度下降原因解析[J]. 中国电力, 2018, 51(5): 172-178.

CHEN Huoyan, CHEN Jia, LI Kai, XIE Xintao. Analysis on the Causes for the Decline of Electricity Consumption Intensity in Hunan Province[J]. Electric Power, 2018, 51(5): 172-178.

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https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/Y2018/V51/I5/172

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湖南省电力消费强度下降原因解析

Analysis on the Causes for the Decline of Electricity Consumption Intensity in Hunan Province

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