关键词: 华北电网, 饱和电力需求, 指标体系, 饱和时间

Abstract: This research analyzed the trend of electricity consumption growth in different developing stages for different countries, confirmed the growth rate of electricity demand from high to low during the economy developing process in developed countries, and having the fact of saturated electricity demand; established a indicator evaluation system for forecasting regional saturated electricity demand; analyzed many factors during the industrialization process of six provinces in North China grid, such as economy development, industrial structure, labor structure, urbanization rate, consumption mode, per capita income level in consideration of the situation of North China; calculated the time and the quantity scopes of the saturated electricity demand by using the system dynamics model.

Key words: north China grid, the saturated power demand, index system, saturation time