基于非参数核密度估计法的光伏出力随机分布模型

doi:10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.2013.9.126.4

中国电力 ›› 2013, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (9): 126-130.DOI: 10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.2013.9.126.4

基于非参数核密度估计法的光伏出力随机分布模型

吴振威¹, 蒋小平¹, 马会萌², 马速良¹, 高志强³

1. 中国矿业大学（北京）机电与信息工程学院,北京 100083; 2. 中国电力科学研究院,北京 100192; 3. 河北电力科学研究院,河北石家庄 050021

收稿日期:2013-04-26 出版日期:2013-09-23 发布日期:2015-12-10
作者简介:吴振威（1988—）,男,山东济宁人,硕士研究生,从事新能源发电及其控制研究。
基金资助:
国家高技术研究发展计划（863计划）资助项目（2012AA050203）; 国家自然科学基金资助项目（51277157）

Random Distribution model of Photovoltaic Output Based on Non-parametric Kernel Density Estimation Method

WU Zhen-wei¹, JIANG Xiao-ping¹, MA Hui-meng², MA Su-liang¹, GAO Zhi-qiang³

1. School of Mechanical Electronic & Information Engineering, China University of Mining & Technology (Beijing), Beijing 100083, China; 2. China Electrical Power Research Institute, Beijing 100192, China; 3. Hebei Electrical Power Research Institute, Shijiazhuang 050021, China;

Received:2013-04-26 Online:2013-09-23 Published:2015-12-10

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 光伏出力的随机性是影响光伏发电稳定性的重要因素。通过对国内某一光伏电站历史运行数据进行统计计算和分析,揭示气象条件差异对光伏出力水平的影响规律,并提出将数据按气象条件分类,用非参数核密度估计法建立晴天、多云、阴天、雨雪4种气象条件下光伏出力的随机分布模型。该方法对数据分布不附加任何假定,只从数据本身特征出发研究其分布特性,适合分析受气象影响显著的光伏出力分布特性。结果表明,模型所示分布特性与相应气象条件下光伏出力实际概率分布具有很好的一致性。

关键词: 光伏出力, 气象条件, 非参数核密度估计, 随机分布模型

Abstract: The random characteristics of photovoltaic(PV) output is one of the significant factors affecting the stability of PV power generation. The influence of weather difference on the level of PV output was studied by statistical calculations and analysis of the historical operating data of a PV power plant. Meanwhile, the random distribution models of PV output were established under clear, cloudy, overcast and rainy or snowy weather conditions by non-parametric kernel density estimation method. The non-parametric kernel density estimation method can analyze the distribution features of the data without any additional assumptions, which is suitable to analyze the random distribution characteristics of PV output that is influenced significantly by weather conditions. The analysis indicates that these models are well consistent with the actual probability distribution of single day PV output under corresponding weather conditions.

Key words: photovoltaic(PV) output, weather condition, non-parametric kernel density estimation, random distribution model

中图分类号:

TM615

吴振威, 蒋小平, 马会萌, 马速良, 高志强. 基于非参数核密度估计法的光伏出力随机分布模型[J]. 中国电力, 2013, 46(9): 126-130.

WU Zhen-wei, JIANG Xiao-ping, MA Hui-meng, MA Su-liang, GAO Zhi-qiang. Random Distribution model of Photovoltaic Output Based on Non-parametric Kernel Density Estimation Method[J]. Electric Power, 2013, 46(9): 126-130.

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https://www.electricpower.com.cn/CN/Y2013/V46/I9/126

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基于非参数核密度估计法的光伏出力随机分布模型

Random Distribution model of Photovoltaic Output Based on Non-parametric Kernel Density Estimation Method

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基于非参数核密度估计法的光伏出力随机分布模型

Random Distribution model of Photovoltaic Output Based on Non-parametric Kernel Density Estimation Method

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